拉丁美洲的背景和白色的党派的选择社会的分工.docx

1、拉丁美洲的背景和白色的党派的选择社会的分工Latino Context and White Partisan Choices Zoltan Hajnal, University of California, San DiegoMarisa Abrajano, University of California, San DiegoAbstractImmigration is profoundly changing the racial makeup of America. In this article, we seek to understand if and how a larger Lat

2、ino population impacts the politics of individual white Americans. We show that state Latino context has broad effects on the core political identities and vote choices of white Americans. Using geographically diverse samples from the 2000 and 2004 National Annenberg Election Studies, we find that,

3、all else equal, whites in states with larger Latino are less apt to identify as Democrats and less likely to favor Democratic candidates. This rightward shift harkens back to an earlier period of white defection from the Democratic Party and highlights the enduring but shifting impact of race on Ame

4、rican politics.Zoltan Hajnal and Marisa Abrajano can be reached at the Department of Political Science, UCSD, La Jolla, CA 92093-0521. Please direct all correspondence to Zoltan Hajnal zhajnalucsd.edu. (858)822-5015. Marisa Abrajano is at (858)534-7201 mabrajanoucsd.edu The authors wish to thank Nic

5、holas Warner for his exemplary research assistance and James Gimpel, Rodney Hero, and David Leal for their thoughtful comments. Attitudes toward African Americans have at times been a central element in the political calculus of white Americans (King and Smith 2011, Valentino and Sears 2005). In the

6、 wake of the Civil Rights Movement, the Democratic Partys embrace of core civil rights legislation, and the Republican Partys Southern Strategy, huge numbers of whites defected to the Republican Party (Carmines and Stimson 1989, Edsall and Edsall 1991 but see Abramowitz 1994 and Shafer and Johnston

7、2005). More broadly, any number of different aspects of white political behavior were linked to the size and strength of the black community (Key 1949). A larger black community was associated with greater opposition to pro-black candidates, more opposition to policies that might benefit blacks, mor

8、e negative views of blacks, and even greater racial violence (Black and Black 1973,Fosset and Kiecolt 1989, Corzine et al 1983).Immigration has, however, dramatically altered the racial makeup of the nation since those days. Latinos now far outnumber blacks. In light of this change, we assess whethe

9、r Latinos have begun to replace blacks in the partisan thinking of white Americans. Specifically, we look at the interface between racial context and white partisanship today. Do whites who live in states with larger and or faster growing Latino populations tend to be more closely linked to the Repu

10、blican Party?Our results indicate that racial context does have broad ranging effects on white party identification and vote choice. Whites who live in states with larger Latino and black populations are significantly less apt to identify as Democrats and substantially more likely to support Republi

11、can candidates. This effect is especially pronounced among white Americans with conservative views. The overall pattern indicates that race and racial context continue to play a central role in the political calculations of Americas white population.Latino Context We are, by no means, the first to e

12、xamine Latino context. Among the studies that examine the effects of Latino (or immigrant) context on white attitudes, the bulk find that Latinos can represent a threat that leads to negative white reactions (Ha 2010, Campbell et al 2006, Stein et al 2000). There are, however, some important excepti

13、ons which demonstrate little to no link between Latino context and white views (Dixon 2006, Taylor 1998, Burns and Gimpel 2000).One overlooked but nevertheless critical limitation of these existing studies is their relatively narrow focus. Almost every study that has focused on the contextual impact

14、 of minorities has limited its purview to minority specific outcomes (but see Hopkins 2009, Hero and Preuhs 2007, Hero 1998). They study how context affects attitudes toward minorities, violence toward minorities, minority specific policies, or violence toward minorities. We contend that the effects

15、 of Latino context could reach much more broadly.A Link to White Partisan Politics?Why should we expect the reach of Latino context to extend to core political identities like party identification and basic decisions about which candidate to support in national elections? First, the magnitude of the

16、 growth of the Latino population makes it impossible for white Americans to miss. Only five decades ago the Census did not record the size of the Hispanic population. Today Latinos represent over 15 percent of the population and are now clearly the largest minority group. Latinos are highly visible

17、in the media and in the nations streets, workplaces, and neighborhoods. In many ways, it would be surprising if such a massive change in the makeup of the nation did not result in Latinos playing a more central role in the minds of white Americans.Second, irrespective of the actual consequences of L

18、atino population growth, there is an on-going and oft repeated threat narrative that links Americas Latino and immigrant populations with a host of pernicious fiscal, social, and cultural consequences (Chavez 2008). This narrative emphasizes Latinos use of welfare, health, and educational services,

19、their propensity to turn to crime, their tendency to displace native citizens from jobs, and their cultural dissimilarity (Borjas 2001, Gimpel and Skerry 2008, Huntington 2005). There is also a visible and potentially alarming political threat in the narrative of the sleeping Latino giant. Many whit

20、e Americans surely have noticed the increasing size of the Latino vote (it grew by 64 percent between 2000 and 2008) and dramatic increases in the number of Latino elected officials (from almost none to over 5,000 nationwide in the past 40 years) (NALEO 2008). Each of these concerns has been spelled

21、 out repeatedly and in great detail in the media, in the political sphere, and in scholarly outlets (Chavez 2008). Moreover, although many inside and outside of the political arena dispute the threat narrative, it appears that the narrative has been absorbed by a significant segment of the white pop

22、ulation. Across the white population attitudes on Latinos and immigration are diverse, but there is little doubt that many white Americans have expressed real concerns about immigration and hold negative attitudes toward Latinos. Recent polls suggest that well over half of white Americans feel that

23、immigrants are a burden on the nation, a slight majority think they add to the crime problem, and about half believe they take jobs away from Americans (CNN 2010). Views of Latinos, while undoubtedly mixed, can also be quite negative. Just under 70 percent of white Americans believe that Latinos are

24、 prone to be on welfare and large numbers of white Americans tend to view Latinos as less intelligent and more violent (Bobo 2001). For many, the changes that are occurring in America represent a real threat. Critically the growing attention to and threat from the Latino population has been infused

25、into the partisan politics of the nation in two important ways. First, the rapid growth of the Latino population and the Democratic tendencies of Latino voters have dramatically altered the racial group membership and imagery of the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party was once almost exclusively

26、the domain of whites but growing minority attachment to the Democratic Party fueled in recent decades by growth in Latino Democratic identifiers has greatly altered that equation. Today, according to the ANES, over 40 percent of Democratic identifiers are racial and ethnic minorities almost half of

27、which are Latinos. By contrast, 92 percent of Republican identifiers are non-Hispanic whites. It would be hard not to notice that the Democratic Party has become the party of minorities and Latinos while the Republican Party has not. Finally, when Republican and Democratic leaders take divergent sta

28、nces on immigration and other issues of particular relevance to the Latino community and in particular when Republicans stand more strongly against immigration, the two parties present individual white Americans with a compelling partisan logic. Ultimately, for those who are concerned about the grow

29、ing Latino population, there is a powerful motivation to choose the Republican Party. Why Geographic Context?One of the most inescapable features of Americas racial transformation is its geographically uneven nature. Some Americans live in areas where there is little evidence of immigration and raci

30、al diversity and others live in neighborhoods, cities, and states, that have been dramatically re-shaped. That uneven transformation means that any perceived threat posed by a growing minority population will likely vary across different geographic contexts Any number of different factors is likely

31、to undergird this relationship. A higher concentration of Latinos often means that Latinos are more visible in the local political sphere and therefore more of a potential threat to white power and resources. We know, for example, that the election of Latinos to office is closely correlated with Lat

32、ino population size (Casellas 2011, Hajnal 2010). Similarly, in places where Latinos live in larger numbers, political campaigns appear to be more apt to focus on Latino related issues. The degree to which local governments raise and deal with immigration and other Latino related issues is correlate

33、d with the size of the local Latino population (Varsanyi 2010). In particular, growth in the Latino share of cities has been tied to the passage of restrictionist, anti-immigrant measures (Ramakrishnan and Wong 2010). Equally importantly, we know that a larger Latino population means greater attention to Latino related issues in the loca