气候变化研究进展.docx

1、气候变化研究进展目 次第8卷 第5期 2012年9月第三极环境专栏313 19812010年青藏高原地区气温变化与高程及纬度的关系 王朋岭，唐国利，曹丽娟，刘秋锋，任玉玉320 20012010年青藏高原干湿格局及其影响因素分析 王 敏，周才平，吴 良，徐兴良，欧阳华327 20062011年西藏纳木错湖冰状况及其影响因素分析 曲 斌，康世昌，陈 锋，张拥军，张国帅334 西藏普莫雍错介形类反映的中晚全新世以来湖面波动与环境变化 彭 萍，朱立平，鞠建廷，Peter Frenzel，Claudia Wrozyna中国冰川资源专栏342 21世纪天山南坡台兰河流域径流变化情景预估 孙美平，姚晓军，

2、李忠勤，李 晶350 天山托木尔峰南坡科其喀尔冰川流域径流模拟 李 晶，刘时银，韩海东，张 勇，王 建，魏俊锋357 托木尔型冰川融水对气候变化敏感性的模型分析 韩海东，邵进荣，林 凤，王 建364 中国积雪时空变化分析 刘俊峰，陈仁升，宋耀选温室气体排放372 国际气候谈判背景下的国家温室气体排放清单编制 朱松丽，王文涛简 讯378 BCC气候系统模式开展的CMIP5试验介绍 辛晓歌，吴统文，张 洁科学知识：全球变暖专题383 气候变化承诺 王绍武，罗 勇，赵宗慈，闻新宇，黄建斌385 暖大洋冷大陆 王绍武，罗 勇，赵宗慈，闻新宇，黄建斌387 全球变暖预估的不确定性 王绍武，罗 勇，赵宗慈

3、，闻新宇，黄建斌信息与动态319 从现代和过去看未来全球变化研究的前景ContentsVol. 8 No. 5 September 2012Special Section on the Third Pole319 Surface Air Temperature Variability and Its Relationship with Altitude & Latitude over the Tibetan Plateau in 1981-2010 Wang Pengling, Tang Guoli, Cao Lijuan, Liu Qiufeng, Ren Yuyu 326 Aridity

4、Pattern of Tibetan Plateau and Its Influential Factors in 2001-2010 Wang Min, Zhou Caiping, Wu Liang, Xu Xingliang, Ouyang Hua333 Lake Ice and Its Effect Factors in the Nam Co Basin, Tibetan Plateau Qu Bin, Kang Shichang, Chen Feng, Zhang Yongjun, Zhang Guoshuai341 Lake Level Fluctuations and Enviro

5、nmental Changes Reflected by Ostracods of Pumayum Co on Tibetan Plateau Since Middle-Late Holocene Peng Ping, Zhu Liping, Ju Jianting, Peter Frenzel, Claudia WrozynaSpecial Section on China Glacial Resources349 Estimation of Tailan River Discharge in the Tianshan Mountains in the 21st Century Sun Me

6、iping, Yao Xiaojun, Li Zhongqin, Li Jing356 Evaluation of Runoff from Koxkar Glacier Basin, Tianshan Mountains, China Li Jing, Liu Shiyin, Han Haidong, Zhang Yong, Wang Jian, Wei Junfeng 363 Modeling the Sensitivity of Meltwater Runoff of Tuomuer-Type Glacier to Climate Changes Han Haidong, Shao Jin

7、rong, Lin Feng, Wang Jian371 Distribution and Variation of Snow Cover in China Liu Junfeng, Chen Rensheng, Song YaoxuanGreenhouse Gas Emissions377 National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Development in the Context of International Climate Negotiation Zhu Songli, Wang WentaoNotes378 Introduction o

8、f CMIP5 Experiments Carried out by BCC Climate System Model Xin Xiaoge, Wu Tongwen, Zhang JieKnowledge: Special Topic on Global Warming383 Climate Change Commitments Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, Wen Xinyu, Huang Jianbin385 Warm Oceans and Cold Continents Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, We

9、n Xinyu, Huang Jianbin387 Uncertainties in Global Warming Projection Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, Wen Xinyu, Huang Jianbin 编者按： 第三极包括青藏高原及毗邻地区，是全球中、低纬度冰川面积分布最广的地区。第三极因其对全球大气环流和气候的显著影响而受到关注。在全球变暖的背景下，第三极环境正发生显著的变化：气温显著升高、冰川普遍退缩、冻土退化、大部分湖泊扩张等。鉴于此，我刊组织了“第三极环境专栏”，内容涉及到最新的气候变化事实及古环境变化。我们认识到，过去30年来

10、青藏高原地区升温显著；而过去10年来，青藏高原北部干旱程度总体上在逐渐减轻，南部及东南部有变干倾向；过去5年来高原纳木错地区的湖冰冰情变化受到气温和风速的双重影响；高原湖泊中水深是影响表层沉积物介形类分布的最重要的环境因子，由此重建了高原南部中晚全新世以来的环境变化。doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.05.001王朋岭, 唐国利, 曹丽娟, 等. 19812010年青藏高原地区气温变化与高程及纬度的关系 J. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8 (5): 313-31919812010年青藏高原地区气温变化与高程及纬度的关系王朋岭1,3，唐国利2，曹丽娟2，刘

11、秋锋1，任玉玉11 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；2 中国气象局国家气象信息中心，北京 100081；3 中国科学院青藏高原环境变化与地表过程重点实验室，北京 100101摘 要：基于青藏高原地区高质量、均一化的气象站点观测资料，研究19812010年青藏高原地区气温变化趋势特征。结果表明：19812010年青藏高原地区整体呈升温趋势，平均升温率为0.40/10a，冬春季升温率大于夏秋季节，以三江源区、西藏中西部和青海北部升温趋势最为显著。青藏高原地区年和冬、春、秋三季的升温率随海拔高度的升高而增大，海拔每升高1000 m，站点年平均气温倾向率增加0.1/10a，冬季更为显著。青

12、藏高原地区夏季气温倾向率的空间分布具有显著的经向差异，纬度每增加10，气温倾向率增加0.33/10a。关键词：青藏高原；气温变化；区域差异；高程；纬度收稿日期：2012-05-04; 修回日期：2012-07-06资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973）课题（2010CB951602）；中国科学院青藏高原环境变化与地表过程重点实验室开放课题基金（TEL201206）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206013）作者简介：王朋岭，男，工程师，主要从事气候学和气候变化研究，wangplSurface Air Temperature Variability and Its Rel

13、ationship with Altitude & Latitude over the Tibetan Plateau in 1981-2010Wang Pengling1, 3, Tang Guoli2, Cao Lijuan2, Liu Qiufeng1, Ren Yuyu11 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 National Meteorological Information Centre, China Meteorological Admini

14、stration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAbstract: Based on the high-quality and homogenized surface station meteorological data over the Tibetan Plateau, surface air temperature var

15、iability characteristics were analyzed in this high-elevation area during 1981-2010. The results show that, the Tibetan Plateau on the whole experienced remarkable warming, and the station averaged temperature trend magnitude was 0.40/10a for the annual mean, with higher temperature increasing rate

16、in winter and spring, followed by autumn and summer. The temperature in the Three-River Headwaters region, central-western Tibet and northern Qinghai exhibited the most significant rising trends. The altitude dependency in annual, winter, spring and autumn average temperature over the Tibetan Platea

17、u were confirmed during the research period, and station temperature trend magnitude generally increased by 0.1/10a for the annual mean with station elevation rising by 1000 m, with more prominent altitude dependency during the winter season. While the temperature trend magnitude in summer showed di

18、stinct latitude gradient, and there was a clear signal of latitude dependency for the temperature trend magnitude in summer, with temperature trend magnitude increasing by 0.33/10a with 10increase for station latitude. Key words: Tibetan Plateau; air temperature variability; regional difference; alt

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