最新财经资讯国际财金合作司.docx

1、最新财经资讯国际财金合作司 最 新 财 经 资 讯第89期（总第199期）国际司 2014-6-4目 录一、 全球1. 世行就近期食品价格上涨发出警告2. FAO总干事呼吁采取有效行动以确保食品安全二、 美欧1. 美联储官员担心市场过分乐观2. 欧央行面临通缩考验三、 亚洲1. 印度央行保持利率不变，缓解莫迪政权压力2. 中国消费支出被低估？2. 警惕结构性货币政策的滥用World Bank alarmed at rising food pricesAFP |30 May 2014World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year f

2、or the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the US and unrest in Ukraine.According to the World Bank, internationally traded food prices increased by a sharp 4.0 per cent. The leap was led by wheat and maize, up 18 per cent and 12 per cent

3、, respectively.As a result, international food prices in April were only 2.0 per cent lower than a year ago and 16 per cent below their record level in August 2012, the banks quarterly food price report said.Increasing weather concerns and import demand - and, arguably, to a lesser extent, uncertain

4、ty associated with the Ukraine situation - explain most of the price increases, the report said.World Bank economists said prices increased despite bumper crops in 2013 and continued projections of record grain harvests and stronger stocks expected for 2014.Persistently dry conditions in the United

5、States and strong global demand, particularly from China, partly explained the price rises.But Ukraine, the breadbasket of eastern Europe, played a part, posting the largest domestic price increases for wheat and maize.Ukraine, the worlds sixth-largest wheat exporter, saw domestic wheat prices jump

6、by 37 per cent, driven in part by currency depreciation.Overall, international wheat prices soared by 18 per cent quarter-over-quarter.Such a steep price increase had not occurred since the months leading to the historical peak in the summer of 2012, the report said.International maize prices rose b

7、y 12 per cent, with Ukraine, the third-largest exporter of maize, experiencing a 73 per cent rise in domestic prices because of delayed plantings and increasing costs.Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have not disrupted exports so far, but might have effects on future production and trade if uncertai

8、nty increases, the report said.Other countries in the grip of political and economic stresses also saw prices shoot higher. In Argentina, for example, wheat prices were up 70 per cent from a year ago.Sugar prices rose 13 per cent and soybean oil prices gained 6.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter.The fi

9、rst-quarter price increases were offset by a 12 per cent decline in rice prices and a 7.0 per cent drop in fertiliser prices.The average price of crude oil rose 3.0 per cent to $US104 a barrel.The United Nations reported last month that world food prices reached their highest level for 10 months in

10、March due to poor weather in major producing countries and the crisis in Ukraine.The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation said its monthly food price index in March rose by 2.3 per cent from February to the highest level since May last year.Experts are concerned that rising prices will hurt the worl

11、ds most vulnerable and could foment food riots and other social unrest.Over the next few months, we must watch these prices carefully, making sure that any further increases do not put additional pressure on the least well-off around the world, senior World Bank official Ana Revenga said.In 2007 and

12、 2008, soaring food prices had sparked dozens of riots across the globe, including in Haiti, Cameroon and India.According to the lender, 51 food riots have occurred in 37 countries since 2007, most of them linked to a jump in food prices and aimed at local authorities.This was the case in the crises

13、 in Tunisia in 2011 and in South Africa in 2012, the bank said.Food price shocks can both spark and exacerbate conflict and political instability, and it is vital to promote policies that work to mitigate these effects, the report warned.FAO chief calls for broad action to ensure food securityXinhua

14、|29 May 2014Marzia de Giuli FAO Director-General Jose Graziano da Silva on Thursday called for effective action to ensure adequate food security and nutrition for all people around the planet. Hunger and malnutrition are two of the major preventable catastrophes affecting our world, da Silva said at

15、 a round-table discussion in the northern city of Milan dedicated to the upcoming Expo Milano 2015. Next years world exposition in Milan, with its food security-oriented theme, as well as an international nutrition conference coming up in Rome in November, will be emblematic efforts that help shape

16、the sustainable future we want, said the head of the UN agency on food security, nutrition and agriculture issues. Da Silva stressed any form of malnutrition has a terrible and costly individual, social and economic impact. While hunger and malnutrition remain, we will continue to witness immense su

17、ffering, he said. He pointed out that 840 million people in the world were chronically hungry, and more than 160 million children suffered from stunted growth, while some two billion people globally experienced various forms of malnutrition. Around 45 percent of all child deaths are linked to malnut

18、rition. And even if the child survives, his or her future will most probably be compromised because of inadequate nutrition in its early days, da Silva added. Yet, he highlighted, the cause was not a shortage of food globally, but obstacles faced by people around the world in gaining access to adequ

19、ate, safe, nutritious food or the means to produce or buy it. We need to act now, forcefully, to reach a world in which there is no over- or under-nutrition, he said, calling on governments to support sustainable, inclusive, social and economic development. Thursdays event featured Italian high-prof

20、ile figures including Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzin, Agriculture Minister Maurizio Martina and Commissioner of Italian Government for the Expo Milano 2015 Giuseppe Sala. The Expo Milano 2015 theme Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life is at the heart of the UNs

21、 founding principles to combat hunger and poverty. The world exposition will run in the Italian business capital for six months from May until the end of October next year. On Nov. 19-21, FAO and the World Health Organization (WHO) will host the Second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN2) at

22、 FAOs headquarters in Rome, which the UN agency has defined as the most significant international event on the issue in more than 20 years.美联储官员担心市场过分乐观WSJ中文| 2014年6月4日在金融市场基本上处于风平浪静之际，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称：美联储)官员开始考虑市场的平静状态本身是否值得担忧。年初以来，美国经济遭受短期经济衰退困扰；美联储开始缩减一项旨在刺激经济增长的主要债券购买项目；奥巴马政府与俄罗斯就后者吞

23、并克里米亚发生争执；中国经济增速放缓；中东地区内乱频发。不过，看看华尔街股票和债券交易员的交易显示屏，你会发现在这里世界看起来堪称稳定的典范：在去年大涨的基础上，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数今年涨势虽不突出，但很稳定，年初迄今累计上扬1%；10年期美国国债收益率持续下跌，尽管同期通胀率从极低水平小幅上升。通胀上升通常会推高债券收益率。其它测量风险规避和市场波动程度的指标显示投资者情绪非常平静。基于期权交易测度股市波动程度的VIX指数已经连续74周低于其长期平均水平。自2006和2007年以来市场还没有如此稳健地运行过。此外，投资级公司债的收益率仅比低风险国债高出一个百分点。自2007年7月以来二

24、者收益率之差还未如此之低。二者之差越小，债券投资者对风险的规避程度就越低。美联储担心的是，当投资者变得对风险无所畏惧时，他们会开始承担更多的风险，而这可能会在未来带来麻烦。这方面的一个例子是：金融数据提供商Dealogic提供的数据显示，去年低评级的美元垃圾债发行规模达到创纪录的3,660亿美元，这是2008年金融危机前几年发行量的两倍多。达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行长Richard Fisher在接受采访时称，这表明市场充满过度乐观情绪。他表示，如果出现过度自满的情绪，未来某个时点一定会有令人不快的意外。不过市场的这种平静归根结底是美联

25、储造成的，因美联储此前向市场保证利率在未来很长时间会维持在低位。美联储的政策声明称，美联储官员预计，在购债结束后的相当长时间内，都会将短期利率维持在接近零的水平。政策声明还称，即使在美联储开始加息后，利率上升幅度也不会太大。这些政策的目的是刺激疲软的美国经济，且美联储官员没有表现出改变这一计划的迹象。但是一些指标显示，市场对美联储上述承诺的解读超出了美联储的本意。在芝加哥商业交易所(CME)交易的联邦基金利率期货合约显示，投资者预期，到2015年12月时，美联储的联邦基金基准利率平均将从当前的零附近升至0.6%。这一水平明显低于美联储3月份政策会议后美联储官员给出的1%的预期中值。期货市场还显

26、示，投资者预期，到在2016年12月，联邦基金利率将达到1.6%，同样低于美联储给出的2.25%的预期中值。美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen) 4月中旬在纽约经济俱乐部(Economic Club of New York)的演讲中温和地回击了市场的确定感，并强调了市场的不确定性。耶伦在此次讲话中称，有必要注意到将政策回应与经济挂钩必然会使联邦基金利率的未来走向存在不确定性。但自那以后债券的风险溢价水平一直没有变化。上月，纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)行长William Dudley在一次演讲后的问答环节警告称，他担心异常低的市场波动将滋生太多的冒险行为。据上个月公布的美联

27、储会议纪要，美联储4月份的政策会议讨论了市场的平静状况。6月中旬美联储官员召开会议时，这一问题可能会再次被提起。不过，鉴于官员们担心过早的加息可能会破坏美国经济脆弱的复苏，很多官员似乎更倾向于谈论市场风险，而不是采取防止风险发生的预防性措施。尽管冒险情绪有升温的势头，但官员们认为，金融体系更大范围的稳定性并没有面临日渐累积的严重威胁。预计官员们将在6月份的会议上继续逐步削减房贷和美国国债购买规模，并坚持将短期利率维持在零附近的政策。不过美联储官员面也面临着一把双刃剑。官员们希望维持低利率，以便促进经济增长和就业增长，并推动美国通胀率从目前位于美联储2%目标下方的水平上升。但2008年金融危机的

28、惨痛教训仍历历在目，官员们目前正在密切关注是否有迹象显示政策对金融市场产生了危险的副作用。投资咨询公司BCA Research首席经济学家巴恩斯(Martin Barnes)称，这是他们自食其果，他们无法鱼和熊掌兼得。巴恩斯表示，如果他们想维持零利率并推高资产价格，他们又怎能指望不出现资金过剩情况和冒险行为呢？ Eurozone deflation fears add to pressure on DraghiFT| June 3, 2014By Claire JonesEurozone inflation fell unexpectedly to 0.5 per cent last mont

29、h, intensifying pressure on Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, to act against the rising threat of deflation.The inflation reading is well below the ECBs target of just under 2 per cent and on a par with March, when it hit its lowest level since autumn 2009.The likelihood of loose

30、r monetary policy, including a radical move to cut one of the central banks key rates below zero, has significantly increased ahead of Thursdays ECB vote. Mr Draghi is also expected to announce proposals to help credit-starved small businesses.Herv Amourda, economist at Socit Gnrale, said the inflat

31、ion reading “strengthens our call for bolder action from the ECB”.The mood in Frankfurt contrasts with the debate in the UK, where the Bank of England has started to discuss raising rates after signs the British recovery has gained traction.The eurozone economy barely grew in the first quarter and t

32、he latest disappointment on inflation will stoke concerns, expressed last week by Mr Draghi, of a negative spiral of subdued price pressures and tight credit conditions.Such a sequence of events could derail the regions fledgling recovery by destroying demand and raising debt burdens in the blocs periphery.Much lower-than-forecast German inflation in May has already toughened the challenge faced by weaker member states, which are attempting to match the levels of comp