就业利息和货币通论 18.docx

1、就业利息和货币通论 18就业、利息和货币通论CHAPTER 18THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT RE-STATED第十八章 一般就业理论的重新表述IWE have now reached a point where we can gather together the threads of our argument. To begin with, it may be useful to make clear which elements in the economic system we usually take as given, which are the

2、 independent variables of our system and which are the dependent variables. 现在，我们已经达到了可以把我们的论证思路加以综合的地步。首先，弄清楚以下几个问题是有用的，即：在经济体系中，我们通常把哪些因素视为既定的；哪些是经济体系中的自变量；哪些是因变量。We take as given the existing skill and quantity of available labour, the existing quality and quantity of available equipment, the exi

3、sting technique, the degree of competition, the tastes and habits of the consumer, the disutility of different intensities of labour and of the activities of supervision and organisation, as well as the social structure including the forces, other than our variables set forth below, which determine

4、the distribution of the national income. This does not mean that we assume these factors to be constant; but merely that, in this place and context, we are not considering or taking into account the effects and consequences of changes in them. 通常我们视为既定的因素是：现有的技能和可用的劳动量，当期可用设备的质量和数量，现有的技术水平，竞争的强弱程度，消

5、费者的偏好和习惯，不同强度劳动的负效用以及监督和组织活动的负效用和社会结构。社会结构包括下面所列举的各个变量之外的决定国民收入分配的各种力量。视为既定的意思并不是说假设这些因素是固定不变的，而只是说在我们所涉及的范围内，不考虑或者不计入它们的变动所造成的影响和结果。Our independent variables are, in the first instance, the propensity to consume, the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital and the rate of interest, though, a

6、s we have already seen, these are capable of further analysis. 我们所说的自变量，首要的是消费倾向、资本边际效率表和利息率。这些变量前文虽然已经有所论述，但还可以作进一步的分析。Our dependent variables are the volume of employment and the national income (or national dividend) measured in wage-units. 我们所说的因变量是：以工资单位计量的就业量和国民收入（或国民所得）。The factors, which we

7、have taken as given, influence our independent variables, but do not completely determine them. For example, the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital depends partly on the existing quantity of equipment which is one of the given factors, but partly on the state of long-term expectation whi

8、ch cannot be inferred from the given factors. But there are certain other elements which the given factors determine so completely that we can treat these derivatives as being themselves given. For example, the given factors allow us to infer what level of national income measured in terms of the wa

9、ge-unit will correspond to any given level of employment; so that, within the economic framework which we take as given, the national income depends on the volume of employment, i.e. on the quantity of effort currently devoted to production, in the sense that there is a unique correlation between th

10、e two. Furthermore, they allow us to infer the shape of the aggregate supply functions, which embody the physical conditions of supply, for different types of products;-that is to say, the quantity of employment which will be devoted to production corresponding to any given level of effective demand

11、 measured in terms of wage-units. Finally, they furnish us with the supply function of labour (or effort); so that they tell us inter alia at what point the employment function for labour as a whole will cease to be elastic. 我们视作既定的那些因素会影响我们的自变量，但并不完全决定它们。例如，资本边际效率表部分地取决于作为既定因素之一的当期资本设备量，部分地取决于不能根据既

12、定因素加以测量的长期预期状况。但是，还有某些其他因素完全由某些既定因素所决定，因而也可以把这些被决定的因素看作是既定的。例如，既定因素可以使我们推断出相当于任何既定就业水平的用工资单位计量的国民收入水平为多少，从而在我们视作既定的经济体系的框架内，我们可以说，国民收入取决于就业量，也即取决于当期用于生产的劳动量。在此意义上，我们说国民收入和就业量二者之间存在唯一的相互关系。再者，既定因素还可以使我们推断出总供给曲线的形状，这条曲线体现了不同类型产品的供给的物质条件即对应于用工资单位计量的任何既定的有效需求水平而用于生产的就业量。最后，既定因素还为我们提供了劳动（或者努力）的供给函数，从而告诉我

13、们，尤其是在哪一点上整个劳动的就业函数不再具有弹性。The schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital depends, however, partly on the given factors and partly on the prospective yield of capital-assets of different kinds; whilst the rate of interest depends partly on the state of liquidity-preference (i.e. on the liquidity

14、function) and partly on the quantity of money measured in terms of wage-units. Thus we can sometimes regard our ultimate independent variables as consisting of (I) the three fundamental psychological factors, namely, the psychological propensity to consume, the psychological attitude to liquidity an

15、d the psychological expectation of future yield from capital-assets, (2) the wage-unit as determined by the bargains reached between employers and employed, and (3) the quantity of money as determined by the action of the central bank; so that, if we take as given the factors specified above, these

16、variables determine the national income (or dividend) and the quantity of employment. But these again would be capable of being subjected to further analysis, and are not, so to speak, our ultimate atomic independent elements. 然而，资本边际效率部分地取决于既定因素，部分地取决于不同种类的资本资产的未来收益。与此同时，利息率部分地取决于流动性偏好的状况（也即取决于流动性函

17、数），部分地取决于用工资单位计量的货币数量。这样，我们有时可以认为，我们的最终自变量包括：（1）三个基本心理因素，即：心理上的消费倾向，心理上的对流动性的态度，以及心理上的对资本资产未来收益的预期；（2）雇主和被雇佣者之间的讨价还价所决定的工资单位；（3）中央银行的行为所决定的货币数量。因此，当上述因素取给定数值时，这些变量就决定国民收入（或者国民所得）和就业量。但是，这些变量可以加以进一步的分析，它们并不是各自独立的最终因素。The division of the determinants of the economic system into the two groups of given

18、 factors and independent variables is, of course, quite arbitrary from any absolute standpoint. The division must be made entirely on the basis of experience, so as to correspond on the one hand to the factors in which the changes seem to be so slow or so little relevant as to have only a small and

19、comparatively negligible short-term influence on our quaesitum; and on the other hand to those factors in which the changes are found in practice to exercise a dominant influence on our quaesitum. Our present object is to discover what determines at any time the national income of a given economic s

20、ystem and (which is almost the same thing) the amount of its employment; which means in a study so complex as economics, in which we cannot hope to make completely accurate generalisations, the factors whose changes mainly determine our quaesitum. Our final task might be to select those variables wh

21、ich can be deliberately controlled or managed by central authority in the kind of system in which we actually live. 把经济体系的决定因素区分为两组，即既定因素和自变量，从任何绝对的观点来看，当然带有很大的随意性。这种区分必须完全以经验为基础，以便于一方面把那些变动似乎很缓慢或者与我们研究的问题关系不大，以致短期内的影响微乎其微的因素归入既定因素一类；另一方面把那些其变动对我们所研究的问题具有决定性影响的因素归入自变量一类。我们现在的目标是发现是什么在任何时候决定一个既定经济体系的

22、国民收入和（几乎是同一事物）它的就业量。这意味着在像经济学这样复杂的研究中，我们不可能期望做出完全精确的一般性结论，而只想找出那些其变动对我们的问题起主要决定作用的因素。我们的最终任务是：在我们实际生活的这种经济体系中，选出那些中央当局能够慎重地加以控制或者管理的变量。IILet us now attempt to summarise the argument of the previous chapters; taking the factors in the reverse order to that in which we have introduced them. 现在让我们尝试把前文

23、各章的论证作个概述。在综述时，各个因素出现的顺序和它们在本书中出现的顺序相反。There will be an inducement to push the rate of new investment to the point which forces the supply-price of each type of capital-asset to a figure which, taken in conjunction with its prospective yield, brings the marginal efficiency of capital in general to a

24、pproximate equality with the rate of interest. That is to say, the physical conditions of supply in the capital-goods industries, the state of confidence concerning the prospective yield, the psychological attitude to liquidity and the quantity of money (preferably calculated in terms of wage-units)

25、 determine, between them, the rate of new investment. 投资引诱推动新的投资量增加到某一点时，使得每种类型的资本资产的供给价格达到一定的数量，并和资本资产的未来收益一起使得总的资本边际效率大致等于利息率。就是说，资本品工业中的供给的物质条件，对预期收益的信心状态，对流动性偏好的心理状态以及货币数量（最好用工资单位计量）共同决定新的投资量。But an increase (or decrease) in the rate of investment will have to carry with it an increase (or decre

26、ase) in the rate of consumption; because the behaviour of the public is, in general, of such a character that they are only willing to widen (or narrow) the gap between their income and their consumption if their income is being increased (or diminished). That is to say, changes in the rate of consu

27、mption are, in general, in the same direction (though smaller in amount) as changes in the rate of income. The relation between the increment of consumption which has to accompany a given increment of saving is given by the marginal propensity to consume. The ratio, thus determined, between an incre

28、ment of investment and the corresponding increment of aggregate income, both measured in wage-units, is given by the investment multiplier. 但是投资量的增加（或者减少）会带来消费量的增加（或者减少），因为一般来说，公众行为的特点是只有人们的收入增加（或者减少）了，他们才愿意扩大（或者缩小）他们的收入和他们的消费之间的差额。就是说，消费量的变化一般和收入量的变化是同方向的（虽然在数量上前者小于后者）。一定的储蓄增量和与之相伴随的消费增量二者之间的关系可以用边

29、际消费倾向来表示。由边际消费倾向决定的投资增量和与之对应的总收入增量（二者都用工资单位计量）之间的比例，可以用投资乘数来计量。Finally, if we assume (as a first approximation) that the employment multiplier is equal to the investment multiplier, we can, by applying the multiplier to the increment (or decrement) in the rate of investment brought about by the fact

30、ors first described, infer the increment of employment. 最后，如果我们假设（作为初步的逼近值）就业乘数等于投资乘数，那么，我们就可以用投资乘数去乘由前文已经说过的诸因素所决定的投资增量（或者减少量），来推知就业增量。An increment (or decrement) of employment is liable, however, to raise (or lower) the schedule of liquidity-preference; there being three ways in which it will tend

31、 to increase the demand for money, inasmuch as the value of output will rise when employment increases even if the wage-unit and prices (in terms of the wage-unit) are unchanged, but, in addition, the wage-unit itself will tend to rise as employment improves, and the increase in output will be accom

32、panied by a rise of prices (in terms of the wage-unit) owing to increasing cost in the short period. 然而，就业增量（或者减少量）会提高（或降低）流动性偏好表（或者曲线）。这样，就业量的增加会增加对货币的需求量。这可以有三条途径：第一，当就业量增加时，即使工资单位和价格（用工资单位计量）不变，产量的价值也将增加；第二，当就业量增加时，工资单位本身会趋于提高；第三，由于短期内成本的增加，产量的增加会引起价格（用工资单位计量）的上升。Thus the position of equilibrium

33、will be influenced by these repercussions; and there are other repercussions also. Moreover, there is not one of the above factors which is not liable to change without much warning, and sometimes substantially. Hence the extreme complexity of the actual course of events. Nevertheless, these seem to be the factors which it is usef