本科毕业设计老龄化对中国产业结构的影响论文.docx

1、本科毕业设计老龄化对中国产业结构的影响论文老龄化对中国产业结构调整的影响摘 要在我国，人口老龄化程度在不同省份之有很大的差异。如青海省的经济不发达但老龄化问题严重，而经济发达的地区如上海则因为大量外来劳动力的存在使得老龄化水平降低。从产业发展的角度来看，城市化的推进要求发展高端服务业和高科技医药卫生保健行业以满足日益扩大的老龄群体的消费需求。但是当前我国产业发展尤其是第三产业和高科技产业的发展不能满足这一需要。对于农村而言，劳动密集型的农业产业仍然是农村经济发展的一大支撑，但是大量的青壮年劳动力已经流向了城市，农村老龄化程度骤增。缓解由此产生的经济发展问题要求农业产业的生产集中化和农业产业链的

2、整合，大力提高农产品的产品附加值并节省由于分散作业导致的资源浪费。因此，研究人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响作用在当前和今后的很长一段时期内是具有深刻意义的。本文在详细介绍和衡量了当前我国的老龄化的现状后，通过收集大量的数据，运用计量工具对回归方程进行拟合，由此来衡量人口老龄化下我国不同省份的产业结构调整受到的不同影响和调整的不同方向，为下一阶段的人口产业政策的制定提供可靠依据。我国产业发展当前所亟需的是一个由经济发展倚重第一、二产业的发展向倚重第三产业的发展、由劳动密集型产业为主导向由技术密集型、知识密集型产业为主导、由低附加值产业向高附加值产业的过渡。根据省际回归结果，人口城市化对于工业发展

3、基础较好的地区如北京和黑龙江等地的第二产业发展产生了负面影响；而对于经济欠发达、工业发展不足或正在飞速发展的地区如内蒙古、云南和安徽等地的第二产业发展起到促进作用。对于第三产业的发展而言，对于工业化进程程度高、工业产值比重明显下降、经济发展较好的北京等地区，城市化的推进有利于第三产业的进一步发展；对于工业化进程的完成程度较低、第三产业产值比相对于第二产业比而言较低的经济较为发达地区，城市化不利于其第三产业发展的继续进行。在经济不发达地区，城市化对其第三产业发展的影响则依具体情况来定。在中国的大部分地区老龄化的加重都对服务业的进一步发展产生了促进作用。人口老龄化促进了中国大部分地区的第二产业和第

4、三产业的发展。关键词：人口老龄化；产业结构调整INFLUENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ADJUSTMENT OF AGING IN CHINAABSTRACTIn China, there are big differences between the inter-provincial population ageing. In many provinces, such as Qinghai province, the economy is not developed but the aging is serious. But aging in developed provinces

5、decreases because of the many labors move in from less developed areas. From the point of industrial development, urbanization advancement requires development of high-end services and high-tech medical and health care industry to meet the growing consumer demand of the aged population. But Chinas c

6、urrent industrial development, especially the development of tertiary industries and high-tech industries does not meet this requirement. As for rural, labor-intensive rural industries continued to be a major support to rural economic development, but a lot of labor has been going to the city, which

7、 led to a surge in rural aging. It calls for industrial centralization of agriculture and agro-industrial chain integration. Vigorously improving the added value of agricultural products and saving on waste of resources are the directions of the upgrading of the industrial structure in rural areas.

8、Therefore, studying the influence of population ageing on adjustment of the industrial structure is of profound significance for a very long time.After introducing and measuring the current state of urbanization, aging and industry structure, with large collection of domestic data, this paper uses m

9、easurement tools to fit the regression equations, by which compare the influence of population ageing on industrial structure inter-provincial, so as to embody the history, current situation and trend of interaction between population structure and industrial structure, to provide a reliable basis f

10、or the formulation of industry and population policy for the next stage.According to the provincial results, for areas in which the industrial development and urbanization are well developed, such as Beijing and Heilongjiang, urbanization had a negative impact on the development of the secondary ind

11、ustry; in regions which lack of industrial development or are fast-growing, such as Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and Anhui, urbanization played a catalytic role. For the development of the tertiary industry, Economically developed regions such as Beijing which have a high degree of industrialization and p

12、roportion of industrial output decreased significantly, urbanization steps conducive to the further development of the tertiary industry; for provinces who have lower stage of completion of the process of industrialization and services output is not well developed and with lower relative to the indu

13、strial area, urbanization is not conducive to the development of its tertiary industry. For General economically under-developed areas, the influence of urbanization on the development of its tertiary industry relies on the specific circumstances of each region. Aggravation in most of Chinas aging h

14、as promoted further development of the service sector. In most area urbanization and population aging plays a catalytic role in the development of the service sector.KEYWORDS: aging population; industrial restructuring第一章 绪论第一节 研究背景和意义一、研究背景根据中国老龄事业发展报告（2013）：我国老年人口数量将在2013年增至2.02亿，老龄化水平至14.8%，16-59

15、岁的劳动年龄人口下降到2013年的9.36亿人。随着1950-1975年期间出生的一代人逼近预期死亡年龄，中国迎来了第一个老年人口增长高峰，使得2013年的社会总抚养比达45.94%。再加上当前计划生育政策限制年轻人口的增长、户籍政策限制农村劳动力向城市的转移、居民生活保障制度的不健全难解老年人口后顾之忧，老龄化给中国经济社会的稳定和发展带来了严峻的考验人口老龄化不是中国独有。在大多数发达国家，当人均收入水平较高时老龄化才开始显现，是人口结构自然演进的结果。这些国家的人口老龄化经历了很长的一个周期才进入老龄化社会，转变的节奏相当缓慢。因而，在劳动人口短缺时，这些国家恰有发展资本密集型、劳动节约

16、型产业的实力，同时又足够的社会福利资本保障老龄人口的生活水平不至下降，实现产业结构升级的同时保证国家向老龄化社会的平稳过渡。中国的老龄化发生时人均收入水平仍较低，不具备发展资本密集型产业的比较优势，却又在不断失去发展劳动密集型产业的比较优势。在中国，产业结构的升级要求解放大量的农业劳动力，但是这些劳动力的素质却不能满足城市产业结构优化升级的要求，因此在产业结构升级面临劳动力供给的结构性短缺。随着中国人口数量最庞大的一代人的老去，中国将面临更大的劳动力供需结构失衡问题，从而制肘产业结构的调整和升级。老龄化对中国产业结构升级带来的挑战不仅如此。目前中国不同省级行政区域之间存在着很大的发展差异，这些差异不仅在于先天资源禀赋的差异、人民群众认识程度的差异和在国民经济发展中定位的差异，更在于由此引起的经济发展水平的参差不齐、各地区产业结构的不完整性和相互之间的不协调以及大规模的趋向于发达城市的人口流动甚至是迁移趋势。所有这些问题都集中地出现在当前这个全球化产业转移和优化升级的关键时期