中国的两个转捩点.docx

1、中国的两个转捩点中国的两个转捩点：如何塑造全球新未来Chinas two turning points: how they will shape a new global future副总理尚达曼于东亚研究所创所15周年论坛的主题演讲 Keynote Address by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam at the Public Forum to Commemorate the East Asia Institutes 15th Anniversary, 24 October 2012

2、, 9am at Regent Hotel Prof Wang Gungwu, Prof Zheng Yongnian, Prof John Wong, Distinguished speakers and guests, 首先，感谢东亚研究所邀请我出席这个各界知名人士和专家学者聚集一堂的论坛。 First of all, thank you for giving me the opportunity of being here at this illustrious gathering of dignitaries and scholars. 东亚研究所对中国经济、社会和政治发展的独立与严谨

3、研究，让它成为一个重要和卓有声誉的研究中心。王赓武教授所提到，自吴庆瑞博士担任研究所前身所长时便贯彻研究工作的精神，也让我印象深刻尝试了解中国与其面对挑战的复杂性的谦逊精神。我们应该以同样的精神来观察中国未来的走向。 The East Asian Institute has established itself as a leading and well reputed centre, for independent and robust research on economic, social and political developments in China. I have been

4、struck too by the spirit which Prof Wang Gungwu mentioned as having instructed such research from the days of Dr Goh Keng Swee at the EAIs predecessor institutions that spirit of humility in seeking to understand China and the immense complexity of the challenges it faces. It is the same spirit that

5、 should inform us as we observe China going forward.中国的发展对世界有重大影响。王教授刚才谈到了美国和中国即将出现的领导人更换。我相信在11月8日发生的事，会比在11月6日发生的事来得重要。 What happens in China is going to matter a lot to all of us, in the rest of the world. Prof Wang was just talking about the impending leadership changes in the United States and

6、in China. I suspect that what happens on November 8 is going to matter more than what happens on November 6.世界现在比以往更依赖中国及其成功的经济转型；也更依赖中国的需求、中国作为投资来源、以及依赖中国来加强世界不同经济区域的互补性。最后，世界也更依赖中国来保持一个稳定的国际秩序。 The world is more dependent than ever on China and its successful economic transformation. More dependen

7、t on Chinese demand, more dependent on China as a source of investment and more dependent on China to strengthen the complementarity between different economic regions in the world. Finally, more dependent than ever on China to preserve a stable international order.中国正经历两个主要转捩点，或者更准确的说，是“拐点”（inflext

8、ion points）。首先，是其经济的结构和驱动力；其次，是它对世界的影响力及领导世界的角色。在国内经济转型与在世界舞台所扮演角色的转变，中国皆面对重大转折点。 China is going through two major turning points, or to be more precise, inflexion points. First, in the structure and drivers of its economy; and second, with respect to its impact on the world and role in global leade

9、rship. In both these regards, its domestic economic transformation and the evolution of its role in the global stage, China is going through major inflexion points.从剩余劳动力到劳动力萎缩 From surplus labour to a declining labour force首先，在国内经济转型上，中国经济正从“旧常态”过渡到“新常态”。“旧常态”着重于资本累积，国有企业扮演主导角色，是个家庭变相津贴生产者的体系。现在，它正

10、逐步转移到一个更具竞争力、更依赖消费为成长驱动力、及更注重资本效益的“新常态”。简而言之，是从注重资本累积转变为注重资本效益的模式。然而，这些改变要通过整体的复杂体制改革才能实现。 Let me make some observations on each of these two inflexion points. First, with regards to its domestic economic transformation. China is in the process of transition from the old normal to a new normal in it

11、s economy. The old normal was focused on capital accumulation, with a dominant role for the state-owned sector, and a system where households implicitly subsidise producers. It is now moving, in steps, to a new normal based on greater competition, greater reliance on consumption as a driver of growt

12、h and a much greater focus on capital efficiency. In short, it is a shift from a model that is focused on capital accumulation to one focused on capital efficiency. However, these changes can only come about through a whole set of complex institutional reforms.利用成长会计（growth accounting）来分析中国增长的经济学家，对

13、中国过去30年的崛起已有很好的了解。使用的估计方式虽然不同，但一些基本的结论却很清楚。 Chinas rise in the last three decades is now well-understood amongst economists who use growth accounting to decompose its growth. Although the technical estimates vary, some basic conclusions come through very clearly.首先，大规模从低生产力农业转移到产业和其他城市化活动的劳动力，给经济增长带

14、来巨大贡献。这是30年来增长的主要来源，就像日本、韩国和台湾早几十年前，和欧洲在二战前与二战后的情况一样。 First, there has been a massive contribution to economic growth arising from the large scale transfer of labour from low productivity agriculture to industries and other urbanised activities. That has been the major contributor to growth over the

15、 three decades, just like it was in Japan, Korea and Taiwan a few decades earlier and in Europe before and after the war.其次，在工业化过程起步慢让中国得到不少优势，可以很快地跟上全球最佳实践经验。从世界各地注入的科技和点子，是促进增长的动力，让中国的“全要素生产力”（Total Factor Productivity）取得非比寻常的快速增长。 Second, there has been considerable advantage in China having star

16、ted off later in the process of industrialisation, and being able to catch up quickly with global best practices. The infusion of technology and ideas from the rest of the world has been a motive force for growth. It has contributed Chinas unusually rapid increases in Total Factor Productivity.第三，中国

17、是享有优势，但也只是在有限期间经济自由化的头20年以人口来看。在过去10年放缓前，它每年取得3的快速劳动力增长。整体的劳动力增长，加速了劳动力从很低生产力活动转移到中等生产力及生产力更高的活动。 Third, China has been advantaged but only for a limited period - for the first two decades after economic liberalisation - by demographics. It had rapid labour force growth of about three per cent per y

18、ear, before that slowed down over the last decade. Overall labour force growth compounded the shift of labour from very low productivity activities into middle and now increasingly into higher productivity activities.劳动力过剩的阶段就快过去了。中国沿岸省份在经济发展上肯定已到了经济学家所说的路易斯转捩点（Lewisian turning point）:它们再也享受不到廉价外来民工

19、，而工资也急剧上升。中部和东北部省份还没有到达这个阶段。但大概不出10年，整个中国将发现依赖廉价劳工再也不是其工业竞争力和增长的基础。 The phase of surplus labour is fast being exhausted. Certainly the coastal provinces in China have reached what economists call the Lewisian turning point in economic development: they no longer have access to cheap migrant labour,

20、and wages are going up very rapidly. The central and northeastern provinces have not reached that point yet. But it is a finite number of years, probably no more than a decade, before China as a whole will find that reliance on low cost labour is no longer its basis for industrial competitiveness an

21、d growth.此外，从一两年后开始，按绝对价值计算，中国的整体劳动力将在接下来数十年逐渐萎缩。同日本、韩国与台湾的发展经验比较，中国比它们更早来到这个阶段。 Importantly too, China will see its overall labour force gradually decline in absolute terms over the next few decades, starting a year or two from now. It has reached that stage earlier than Japan, Korea and Taiwan did

22、 in their own development experience.中国目前的人均收入，大概是日本1980年及韩国和台湾约1990年的水平。这些经济体在达到中国今天的人均收入水平后，劳动力还持续增长了10到20年。日本的人口正在萎缩，但台湾和韩国的劳动力仍有小增长，就像新加坡和香港。中国即将经历的劳动力萎缩将是独特的，因为它仍是个发展中国家。这也同诸如印度等发展中国家不一样，印度的劳动力在未来10年甚至是更长的时间里，将持续显著增长。 Chinas per capita income today is around the level in Japan in 1980, Korea an

23、d Taiwan around 1990. These economies saw continued labour force growth for a couple of decades, one to two decades, after that period. Japan is now in a stage of population decline, but Taiwan and Korea continue to see small growth in their labour forces just like Singapore and Hong Kong. Chinas co

24、ming experience of decline in its labour force will be unique in that it is still developing. It is also very different in this regard from other emerging countries like India which continued to see very significant growth in their labour forces in the next decade and beyond.这对中国来说不一定是不利的。但却意味着必须更重视

25、资本的有效利用，和提高每个经济领域的生产力。为年长者建立一个健全的社会安全网也变成一项紧迫的工作。 This is not necessarily a disadvantage for China. But it is does require a much greater emphasis on efficiency in the use of capital, and on raising productivity in every sector of the economy. It also gives urgency to the task of developing a robust

26、 social security system for the old.中国有提高生产力的巨大空间，这是我们对中国增长前景应该保持乐观的基本原因。中国的生产力只是美国的约1518，或亚洲新兴工业化经济体的平均约25，有不少空间来追上透过新科技、新点子和国内经济更有效的资源分配。同日本及新兴工业化经济体比较，中国劳工的人均资本存量（capital stock per worker）也还处于低水平，有大量的空间提高生产力和收入。 There is indeed significant scope in China for productivity growth, and that is the b

27、asic reason why one should have optimism in the Chinas growth prospects. The level of productivity is roughly 15 to 18 per cent of that in the United States, or about 25 per cent that in the Asian NIEs on average. So there is still tremendous room for catch up new technologies, new ideas, more effic

28、ient allocation of resources within its domestic economy. The level of capital stock per worker is also still low compared to Japan and the NIEs. Great scope ahead for improving productivity and incomes.人力资源发展：从数量到质量 Human capital development : from quantity to quality这需要经济和社会领域策略的改变，并为重要的国内改革增添动力。首

29、先，在人力资源上，中国正从讲究数量过渡到重视素质。在提供普遍的基本和中学后教育，中国是个成功的例子，尤其是同印度和其他大多数巨大的发展中区域相比。 This will involve changes in economic and social sector strategies, and adding momentum to important domestic reforms. First, with regard to human capital. China is shifting from a focus on quantity to quality. China has been

30、a success story in providing widespread basic education and post-secondary education, especially compared to India and most other large developing regions.但其教育体系质量参差不齐。就像世界银行所指出，寻求教育质量的平等，比寻求教育机会的平等，是中国教育制度未来更大的挑战。 But there are wide disparities in quality in the Chinese education system. As the Wor

31、ld Bank puts it, equality of quality is a major challenge in Chinese education, more than equality of access. This is a major challenge going forward. 确保毕业生受雇也是个棘手问题。中国培养了许多毕业生。中长期来说，毕业生可能供过于求。从数据来看，没有受雇的年轻毕业生超过9，尤其是美术和数学系的毕业生。对理论过于注重，对同市场相关的技能不够重视是个问题。 There is also the challenge of ensuring employ

32、ability of graduates. China is producing many more graduates. It may have even have overdone the supply of graduates in the short to medium term. This is why when you look at the unemployment numbers, over nine per cent of young graduates are unemployed in China, and much more so in disciplines such as fine arts and Mathematics. There is an over-emphasis on theory, and under-emphasis on skills relevant to the marketplace. 更开放的经济 More openness, not less第二项挑战是通过贸易和投资，维持并加快中国经济的开放度。这在全球重新平衡的讨论中并没有受到足够的关注。我们在谈论美国减少经常项目赤字及中国减少盈余时，解决方案不应该是中国把焦点放在内需