宏观820.docx

1、宏观820第八章1. the aggregate supply relation： According to this equation:1) An increase in the expected inflation, e, leads to an increase in inflation, .2) Given expected inflation e, an increase in the markup, , or an increase in the factors that affect wage determination, z, lead to an increase in in

2、flation .3) Given expected inflation, e, an increase in the unemployment rate, u, leads to a decrease in inflation, .2. If we set et = 0(when ), then: This is the negative relation between unemployment and inflation that Phillips found for the United Kingdom, and Solow and Samuelson found for the Un

3、ited States (or the original Phillips curve, it means that wage setters expect that the price level in next year is equal to that in current year, i.e., inflation will be equal to zero ).3. the early incarnationThe wage-price spiral:Given Pet =Pt-1: Low unemployment leads to a higher wage. In respon

4、se to the higher wage, firms increase their prices. In response, workers ask for a higher wage. Higher wage leads firms to further increase prices. This further increases wages asked for by workers. The race continues over wages and price inflation.4. Mutations1) In the equation above, when equals z

5、ero, the relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate is:2) When is positive, the inflation rate depends on both the unemployment rate and last years inflation rate: 3) When is positive, the inflation rate depends on both the unemployment rate and last years inflation rate: 5. The o

6、riginal Phillips curve is: The modified Phillips curve, also called the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, or the accelerationist Phillips curve, is: 第九章1. Output, Unemployment,and InflationThis chapter characterizes the economy by three relations: Okuns Law, which relates the change in unemploy

7、ment to output growth. The Phillips curve, which relates the changes in inflation to unemployment. The aggregate demand relation, which relates output growth to both nominal money growth and inflation.2. Okuns lawAccording to the equation above, the change in the unemployment rate should be equal to

8、 the negative of the growth rate of output.For example, if output growth is 4%, then the unemployment rate should decline by 4%. Note :This equation is derived from following two convenient but restrictive assumption : Output moved one for one with employment ,ie. Y=N; Labor force was constant ,so c

9、hanges in employment was reflected on efor one in opposite changes in unemployment.The actual relation between output growth and the change in the unemployment rate is known as Okuns law.Using thirty years of data in the united states , the relation that best fits the data is given by:3. The effects

10、 of money growth Okuns law relates the change in the unemployment rate to the deviation of output growth from normal: The Phillips curve relates the change in inflation to the deviation of the unemployment rate from the natural rate: The aggregate demand relation relates output growth to the differe

11、nce between nominal money growth and inflation.4. The medium run In the medium run , the unemployment rate must be constant , Then according Okuns law, the output must grow at its normal rate of growth In the medium run , according the aggregate demand relation ,the inflation must be equal to nomina

12、l money growth minus normal output growth . If we define adjusted nominal money growth as equal to nominal money growth minus normal output growth, so in the medium run , inflation equals adjusted nominal money growth.If inflation is constant - equals adjusted nominal money growth ,according to the

13、phillips curve ,the unemployment rate must equal to the natural rate of unemployment.Lets summarize:In the medium run, output is equal to the normal growth rate; unemployment is equal to the natural rate ,both of them are independent of nominal money growth .So nominal money growth affects only infl

14、ation -changes in the level of nominal money are neutral in the medium run, which are reflected one for one in changes in the rate of inflation. . “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”_ Milton friedman 5. The first passIn the Phillips curve relation above, disinflationa decreas

15、e in inflation ratecan be obtained only at the cost of higher unemployment. (note :deflationdecrease in the price level ,equivalent negative inflation )第十章1. The facts of growthGrowth is the steady increase in aggregate output over time.2. The growth in rich countriesOutput per capita equals GDP div

16、ided by population.The standard of living depends on the evolution of output per capita, not total output.3. The decrease in growth rates since the Mid-1970A very useful rule is the “rule of 70.” If a variable grows at x% a year, then it will take approximately 70/x years for the variable to double.

17、 4. The aggregate production functionThe aggregate production function is a specification of the relation between aggregate output and the inputs in production.Y = aggregate output.K = capitalthe sum of all the machines, plants, and office buildings in the economy.N = laborthe number of workers in t

18、he economy.The function F, tells us how much output is produced for given quantities of capital and labor.5. The sources of growthUsing the above equation, we can now determine where growth comes from:A) Increases in output per worker (Y/N) can come from increases in capital per worker (K/N).B) Or t

19、hey can come from improvements in the state of technology that shift the production function, F, and lead to more output per worker given capital per worker.Growth comes from capital accumulation and from technological progress.We can think of growth as coming from capital accumulation and from tech

20、nological progress, but these two factors play very different roles in the growth process:a) Capital accumulation by itself cannot sustain growth. b) Sustained growth requires sustained technological progress. The rate of growth of output per capita is eventually determined by the economys rate of t

21、echnological progress.第十一章1. Interactions between output and capitalAt the center of the determination of output in the long run are two relations between output and capital:a) The amount of capital determines the amount of output being produced.b) The amount of output determines the amount of savin

22、g and investment, and so the amount of capital being accumulated.2. Output and investmentWe make three assumptions to derive the relation between output and investment:1) We assume the economy is closed.2) We assume public saving, T G, is equal to zero.3) We assume that private saving is proportiona

23、l to income, soCombining these two relations gives:3. Investment and accumulationThe evolution of the capital stock is given by: denotes the rate of depreciation. Combining the relation from output to investment, , and the relation from investment to capital accumulation, we obtain the second import

24、ant relation we want to express, from output to capital accumulation:Output and Capital per Worker:Rearranging terms in the equation above, we can articulate the change in capital per worker over time:In words: the change in the capital stock per worker (left side) is equal to saving per worker minu

25、s depreciation (right side).4. Dynamics of capital and outputFrom our main relations above, we express output per worker (Y/N) in terms of capital per worker to derive the equation below: This relation describes what happens to capital per worker .From this relation we know:a) If investment per work

26、er exceeds depreciation per worker, the change in capital per worker is positive: Capital per worker increases.b) If investment per worker is less than depreciation per worker, the change in capital per worker is negative: Capital per worker decreases. c) This relation contains all the information w

27、e need to understand the dynamic of capital and output over time.5. Steady-state capital and outputThe state in which output per worker and capital per worker are no longer changing is called the steady state of the economy. In steady state, the left side of the equation above equals zero, then:Give

28、n the steady state of capital per worker (K*/N), the steady-state value of output per worker (Y*/N), is given by the production function:6. The saving rate and outputThree observations about the effects of the saving rate on the growth rate of output per worker are:1) The saving rate has no effect o

29、n the long run growth rate of output per worker, which is equal to zero. 2) Nonetheless, the saving rate determines the level of output per worker in the long run. Other things equal, countries with a higher saving rate will achieve higher output per worker in the long run. 3) An increase in the sav

30、ing rate will lead to higher growth of output per worker for some time, but not forever. That is ,the saving rate does not affect the long-run growth rate of output per worker. After a higher saving rate, growth will end once the economy reaches its new steady state.第十二章、十三章为理解内容第十八章1. Openness in g

31、oods and financial marketsOpenness has three distinct dimensions:1) Openness in goods markets, which allows people to choose between domestic goods and foreign goods .An important determinant of their decisions is the real exchange rate -the relative price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods. what we are concerned about is Free trade restrictions include tariffs and quotas.2) Openness in financial markets, wich allows people to choose between domestic assets and foreign assets. This imposes a tight relation between the exchange rate, both current