上财会计与财务研究方法论课件(李增泉教授).ppt

1、1ResearchMethodologyandMethodinAccountingandFinanceLiZSUFE/2011引子：独立董事的价值2010年度优秀独立董事证监会是否应该规定公司必证监会是否应该规定公司必须聘请独立董事？须聘请独立董事？能够监督内部人能够为公司提供咨询能够降低监管部门的责任能够为会计教授提供赚钱机会不能够监督内部人不能够为公司提供咨询不能够降低监管部门的责任不能够为会计教授提供赚钱机会他们真的很厉害？他们真的很厉害？可以抑制掏空、提供咨询、可以抑制掏空、提供咨询、扶贫教授、保护官员？扶贫教授、保护官员？答案好像是唯一的！答案好像是唯一的！推理可信吗？事实可靠吗？以

2、独立董事为例有人发现，独立董事越多（比例或人数，或有/没有）的公司，价值（会计指标或股价指标）越高。疑问1：有其他解释吗？疑问2：穷尽了任何公司的任何时点吗？疑问3：事实可信吗？（何谓公司价值）该发现可该发现可以说明独以说明独立董事的立董事的价值吗？价值吗？以上例子中的方法论问题研究问题：实证性命题（是什么？为什么）与规范性命题（怎么办？）检验方法：推理与感知、归纳与演绎计量方法：内生性7PartI:Methodology8Chap1:ThePhilosophyoffinanceandaccountingresearch9ResearchProgressTheResearchProgressT

3、hestatementoftheresearchproblemorissuetobeinvestigated,orthetheoreticalexplanationtobetestedThetranslationoftheabstractideasinthistheoreticalexplanationintoconcrete,explicitlyidentifiableideasThedevelopmentofmeasuresoftheimportantvariablesinthetheoreticalexplanation10Thedevelopmentofaresearchdesignt

4、oguidetheinquiryintotheresearchproblemThecollectionoftheresearchdataTheanalysisofthisinformationinthecontextoftheproposedexplanationTheinterpretationoftheinformation,orintegrationofthefindingsoftheresearchwiththeexistingknowledgebase11SomeissuesonphilosophyWhatisresearch?Researchisaprocessofintellec

5、tualdiscovery,whichhasthepotentialtotransformourknowledgeandunderstandingoftheworldaroundus.ResearchmethodologicalvariedwithsuchassumptionsaboutThenatureofrealityTheroleoftheoryThesignificanceofempiricalexperimentationWhyisresearchmethodologyimportant?Whenapieceofresearchischaracterizedbypoortechniq

6、ue,acriticmayarguethattheresearchisdefective,weakormisapplied,however,whenamethodologicaldisputeisinvolvedtheresearchissimplylabeledasnonsensical”.12Researchinaccountingandfinanceisgenerallyacceptedasbeingsocialscientific,asappropriatestandardsofscientificenquiryareappliedtosocialissuesratherthannat

7、uralphenomena,whichistakentobethedomainofthenaturalsciencesandofphysicsinparticularThesocialscientificisseriousaffectedbyDualitywithinwesternthoughtRealitycouldbecharacterizedbyoppositesThereisanessentialdualityinallthings13Individual subjectknowledgebeliefsperceptionsappearancereasonExternal object

8、14EpistmologyorwhatisknowledgeEmpiricismandrationalism:thesourceofknowledgeSocrateandPlatoVs.Aristotle|Descartes,HegelandMarxVs.NewtonTraditionally,classicalempiricistsacceptedthatCertaintyofbeliefinwhatweknowcanonlybeapproachedthroughperceptionUltimatelyallknowledgeisderivedfromperceptionthroughour

9、sensesIntherealmofdiscoursestatementsareeithertrueorfalsebecauseofthewaytheworldisorbecauseofsomeformalpropertiesofthelanguageweused15Realismversusidealism:ontologyofwhatweknowRealismsholdthatrealitysubsistswithinobjects;idealistsholdthatitexistswithinthemindofthesubjectHumeVs.BerkeleyKant:Transcend

10、entalidealismThereisanobjectiveworldorexperiencewhichwerelateandultimatelytestourclaimstoknowledgeofwhatistrueorfalsewecanknowthembytheapplicationofcertaintranscendentprinciplesrelativism16LogicalpositivismandinstrumentalismLinguisticderivativeofempiricismwheretheworldofmeaningfuldiscoursediscontrol

11、ledbyaparticularvarietyofthecorrespondencetheoryoftruthHoldthat:Truebeliefisgroundedinwhatweperceiveandthatwhatweperceiveisderivedfromavalue-free,independentrealityMeaningfulstatementsareonlythosewhichcan,inprincipleatleast,beverifiedbyappealtoobservation17TwodifficultiesThevalidityoftheverification

12、principleitselfGenerallawsandtheoreticaltermsInstrumentalismTherealismofgiventheoreticaltermsisquiteirrelevantindeterminingthevalidityofanytheoreticalconstructionsderivedfromthemorinwhichtheyareembedded.E.g.,Thefactthatatheoryisunrealisquiteirrelevantprovidedthatitworksinpractice.Friedman(1953)Falsi

13、ficationism(Popper,1959)Anystatementwhichcannotbedemonstratedtobefalseismeaninglessandanytheorywhichcantbefalsifiedisdevoidofempiricalcontent18PositiveeconomicsFriedman(1953)Alchian(1950)张五常（2001）HolthausenaandWatts(2001)Uncertainty,EvolutionandEconomicTheoryArmenA.AlchianInJournalofPoliticalEconomy

14、58,no.3(June1950):211-221OutlineInthispaper,AlchiansuggestsanapproachThisapproachembodiestheprinciplesofbiologicalevolutionandnaturalselectionbyinterpretingtheeconomicsystemasanadoptivemechanismwhichchoosesamongexploratoryactionsgeneratebytheadaptivepursuitofsuccessorprofitThismodificationincorporat

15、eincompleteinformationanduncertainforesightasaxioms,butdispensewithprofitmaximization,anddoesnotrelyonthepredictableindividualbehaviorThemethodofuse,ratherthantheusefulness,ofeconomictoolsandconceptsisaffectedbythismodification“ProfitMaximization”IsNotAGuideToActionCurrenteconomicanalysisofeconomicb

16、ehaviorreliesheavilyondecisionsmadebyrationalunitscustomarilyassumedtobeseekingperfectlyoptimalsituations(eg.Profitmaximizationorutilitymaximization).Attacksonthismethodologyarewidespread,butonlyTintnersattackhasbeenreallydamaging.Hedeniesthatprofitmaximizationevenmakesnosenseunderuncertaintybecauseunderuncertaintyeachactionthatmaybechosenisidentifiedwithadistributionofpotentialoutcomes,notwithauniqueoutcome.UsingoptimumdistributionasasubstitutionstillpostulateamodecontainingcertaintySuccessIsBa