二胎政策对经济发展的影响研究.docx

1、分类号 学号 学校代码 密级 硕士学位论文二胎政策对经济发展的影响研究学位申请人：学科专业：指导教师：答辩日期：A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of EconomyThe impact of two-child policy on economic developmentCandidate : Major :Supervisor :Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan， Hubei 4300

2、74， P. R. China May， 2017独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除文中已经标明引用的内容外，本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写过的研究成果。对本文的研究做出贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到本声明的法律结果由本人承担。 学位论文作者签名： 日期： 年 月 日 学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者完全了解学校有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学校有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权华中科技大学可以将本学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关

3、数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存和汇编本学位论文。保密，在 年解密后适用本授权书。不保密。本论文属于（请在以上方框内打“”）学位论文作者签名：指导教师签名：日期： 年 月 日日期： 年 月 摘 要 人作为经济发展的关键要素，是经济领域研究的重点内容。面临我国人口老龄化程度不断加深，2015年我国实施全面放开“二胎”政策，这是国家积极开展应对老龄化的行动之一。生育政策的变化会改变我国人口结构，新生儿数量的增加以及老龄人口数量的增加会影响社会抚养比水平，人口红利与经济发展的潜在联系与作用等问题再次成为研究的焦点。全面二胎政策对我国经济社会的影响是宽领域、多层位的，并不是直接作

4、用于社会总产出，不能直接影响经济发展的速度，而是通过影响经济增长的其他变量，经过一系列经济变量相互作用，最终引发相关的经济后果。人口结构转变以年龄转变是主要特征，对经济增长的影响过程是通过一系列传导变量实现的，直接作用的传导变量一般是与人口紧密相关的，主要有就业水平、储蓄率及消费水平、社会保障、产业结构调整、人力资本积累水平等。在经典的经济增长理论中，影响经济增长速度快慢的因素很多，其中主要因素包括劳动力供给数量的变化、居民储蓄率以及人力资本积累。因而，本文从二胎政策带来的人口结构及年龄结构视角出发，结合抚养比与人口年龄结构的变化情况研究对我国经济增长产生的影响及其作用机制。尽管中国的经济发展

5、状况和生育政策与美国、日本、韩国、法国、澳大利亚这些国家的有所不同，但大致相似的是在收获人口红利时都得到了经济的高速增长，人口红利消失后同样会面临有效劳动人口比重下降、人口老龄化、经济增长放缓的严峻挑战。届时人口生育政策如何制定、如何应对人口红利消散后劳动力短缺以及经济增长速度减缓等一系列是摆在中国政府面前急需解决的问题，特别是生育政策的未来发展方向也是我们现如今所关心的重点，所以我们需要对国际多国进行研究中从而得出对中国的经济增长、人口政策有益的启示和政策支持。首先，文章就二胎政策实施的背景条件进行阐述，对研究的思路、逻辑结构及意义展开论证与分析，对研究方法进行了选用，对研究的主要内容进行了

6、概括；其次，对我国生育政策的演变及与国际相关国家进行了比较，对人口与经济增长的关系展开了深入的分析，并对相关理论进行了介绍；再次，重点对二胎政策实施的经济背景展开了细致的分析，对二胎政策开放实施的条件进行理论上的论证，有针对性的对二胎政策对经济、人口结构、产业链的综合影响展开分析；最后，进行了人口结构与经济发展的实证分析。关键词：二胎政策；经济发展；老龄化；利弊AbstractAs a key element of economic development, people are the focus of economic research. Facing the aging populati

7、on of our country deepening, in 2015 Chinas implementation of full liberalisation two-child policy, which is one of the countries should actively carry out the aging of the action. Fertility policy changes will change the population structure in our country, an increase in the number of newborn and

8、the increasing aging population will affect social upbringing than level, demographic dividend and potential links between economic development and function of problem once again become the focus of research. Comprehensive two-child policy in the Chinas economic and social effects of wide-range, mul

9、ti-layer, and not directly impact on the social output, cannot directly affect the speed of economic development, but by other variables affect economic growth, through a series of economic variables interaction, will eventually cause the relevant economic consequences. Demographic changes with age

10、is the main characteristics of the impact on the economic growth process are implemented through a series of conduction variables, direct acting conduction variables generally is closely related to population, mainly include employment, savings and consumption level, social security, industrial stru

11、cture adjustment, the level of human capital accumulation, etc. In classic economic growth theory, there are many factors which can affect economic growth speed, the main factors including the change of labor supply quantity, rate, and human capital accumulation. Therefore, this article from the two

12、-child policy of population structure and age structure perspective, combined with the ratio and the change of population age structure research on the impact of Chinas economic growth and its mechanism of action. Despite Chinas economic development and policy with the United States, Japan, South Ko

13、rea, France, Australia, the country is different, but generally is similar to that of the harvesting of demographic dividend has been economic growth, demographic dividend disappears will also face the effective labor population decline, the challenge of an ageing population, economic growth. When t

14、he population policy of how to develop, how to deal with population dividend dissipate after Labour shortages and slowing economic growth and a series of urgent problems facing the Chinese government, especially the policy of birth the focus of the future development direction is also our concern no

15、w, so we need to study international multinational to draw on Chinas economic growth, population policy beneficial enlightenment and policy support. First of all, the article elaborates the background condition of two-child policy implementation, to expand the thinking, logic structure and significance of the study demonstration and analysis, the method of study on selection, summarizes the main content of research; Secondly, the evolution of the one child