就业利息和货币通论 15Word格式文档下载.docx

1、WE must now develop in more detail the analysis of the motives to liquidity-preference which were introduced in a preliminary way in Chapter 13. The subject is substantially the same as that which has been sometimes discussed under the heading of the Demand for Money. It is also closely connected wi

2、th what is called the income-velocity of money;-for the income-velocity of money merely measures what proportion of their incomes the public chooses to hold in cash, so that an increased income-velocity of money may be a symptom of a decreased liquidity,-preference. It is not the same thing, however

3、, since it is in respect of his stock of accumulated savings, rather than of his income, that the individual can exercise his choice between liquidity and illiquidity. And, anyhow, the term income-velocity of money carries with it the misleading suggestion of a presumption in favour of the demand fo

4、r money as a whole being proportional, or having some determinate relation, to income, whereas this presumption should apply, as we shall see, only to a portion of the publics cash holdings; with the result that it overlooks the part played by the rate of interest. 现在，我们必须对第13章已经初步介绍过的流动性偏好的动机做更详尽的分

5、析。分析的内容和有时与在对货币的需求标题下讨论的内容实质上是相同的，它也和所谓货币的收入流通速度紧密相联因为货币的收入流通速度只是计量公众将其收入中选择有多大比例以现金形式持有。因此，货币的收入流通速度的提高可以被看作是流动性偏好降低的象征。然而，它们不是等同的事物，因为个人在流动性和非流动性之间能够进行选择的，是就他已经积累起来的储蓄存量而言，而不是就他的收入来说的。而且，无论如何，“货币的收入流通速度”这个术语本身就具有能导致误解的含义，认为对货币总体需求量总是与收入保持一定的比例，或与收入保持某种决定性的关系，而实际上，正如我们将要看到的那样，上述比例和关系仅仅适用于公众所持有的一部分现

6、金，这种导致误解的涵义使人们忽视了利息率在其中所起的作用。In my Treatise on Money I studied the total demand for money under the headings of income-deposits, business-deposits, and savings-deposits, and I need not repeat here the analysis which I gave in Chapter 3 of that book. Money held for each of the three purposes forms, n

7、evertheless, a single pool, which the holder is under no necessity to segregate into three water-tight compartments; for they need not be sharply divided even in his own mind, and the same sum can be held primarily for one purpose and secondarily for another. Thus we can-equally well, and, perhaps,

8、better-consider the individuals aggregate demand for money in given circumstances as a single decision, though the composite result of a number of different motives. 在我的货币论一书中，我在三个标题下研究了对货币的需求总量，即：收入存款、经营存款和储蓄存款。在这里，没有必要重述我在该书第3章中的分析。然而，为了这三种目的中的每一种而持有的货币都汇集成一笔笼统的款项，持有者不必把它分成严格区分的三个部分，甚至在他们心目中也没有严格区

9、分的必要。而且，同一笔款项可能主要是为了一种目的而持有，又次要地为了另一种目的而持有。因此，一般较好的甚或是最好的办法，就是把个人在一定情况下对货币的总需求当作单一的决策，虽然它是由许多不同动机综合而成的结果。In analysing the motives, however, it is still convenient to classify them under certain headings, the first of which broadly corresponds to the former classification of income-deposits and busin

10、ess-deposits, and the two latter to that of savings-deposits. These I have briefly introduced in Chapter 13 under the headings of the transactions-motive, which can be further classified as the income-motive and the business-motive, the precautionary-motive and the speculative-motive. 然而，在分析动机时，在某种标

11、题下把它们分开还是方便的。第一类大致相当于收入存款和经营存款的区分，后两种类别相当于储蓄存款。关于这些类别，我曾在第13章中的下述条目中简要地论述过。这些条目是：交易动机（这可以进一步区分为收入动机和经营动机）、谨慎动机和投机动机。（i） The Income-motive.One reason for holding cash is to bridge the interval between the receipt of income and its disbursement. The strength of this motive in inducing a decision to ho

12、ld a given aggregate of cash will chiefly depend on the amount of income and the normal length of the interval between its receipt and its disbursement. It is in this connection that the concept of the income-velocity of money is strictly appropriate. （1）收入动机持有现金的理由之一，是为了在两次取得收入的中间时期作为支付之用。这一动机在诱使人们

13、作出持有一定数额现金的决策的影响力方面，主要取决于收入的多少以及收入和支付期的长短。严格地说，货币的收入流通速度这个概念只有在这种场合才是适用的。（ii） The Business-motive.-Similarly, cash is held to bridge the interval between the time of incurring business costs and that of the receipt of the sale-proceeds; cash held by dealers to bridge the interval between purchase an

14、d realisation being included under this heading. The strength of this demand will chiefly depend on the value of current output （and hence on current income）, and on the number of hands through which output passes. （2）经营动机同样，企业也需要持有现金，以在得到销售款之前支付业务开支。经营者所持有的在进货和销售之间作为支付之用的现金也属于这一种类。这种需求的强弱程度主要取决于当期产

15、量的价值（从而取决于当期收入）以及销售产品时所需要经过的环节。（iii） The Precautionary-motive.-To provide for contingencies requiring sudden expenditure and for unforeseen opportunities of advantageous purchases, and also to hold an asset of which the value is fixed in terms of money to meet a subsequent liability fixed in terms o

16、f money, are further motives for holding cash. （3）谨慎动机为了应付突然需要支付现金的偶发事件以及意外的有利的购买机会。为了持有货币价值不变的资产（即货币）以便偿付未来货币价值额不变的债务也是持有现金的另一个动机。The strength of all these three types of motive will partly depend on the cheapness and the reliability of methods of obtaining cash, when it is required, by some form o

17、f temporary borrowing, in particular by overdraft or its equivalent. For there is no necessity to hold idle cash to bridge over intervals if it can be obtained without difficulty at the moment when it is actually required. Their strength will also depend on what we may term the relative cost of hold

18、ing cash. If the cash can only be retained by forgoing the purchase of a profitable asset, this increases the cost and thus weakens the motive towards holding a given amount of cash. If deposit interest is earned or if bank charges are avoided by holding cash, this decreases the cost and strengthens

19、 the motive. It may be, however, that this is likely to be a minor factor except where large changes in the cost of holding cash are in question. 以上三种类型动机的强弱，部分地取决于需要现金时以某种暂时借款的方式取得现金的代价的大小和可靠性，特别是银行透支或类似透支方式的代价和可靠性，因为如果需要现金时能毫无困难地取得现金，那么，就没有持有闲置不用的现金的必要。上述三种动机的强弱程度也取决于被我们称为持有现金的相对成本这一术语。如果持有现金的代价是牺

20、牲对有利可图的资产的购买，那么，这会减少成本，从而增强持有现金的动机。然而，除非持有现金的成本会发生很大的变动，这很可能只是一个次要因素。（iv） There remains the Speculative-motive. This needs a more detailed examination than the others, both because it is less well understood and because it is particularly important in transmitting the effects of a change in the quan

21、tity of money. （4）还剩下的是投机动机这个动机比其他动机需要进行更详尽的考察。这一是因为人们对这个动机缺乏充分的理解，二是因为货币数量的改变所导致的后果具有特殊的重要性。In normal circumstances the amount of money required to satisfy the transactions-motive and the precautionary-motive is mainly a resultant of the general activity of the economic system and of the level of m

22、oney-income. But it is by playing on the speculative-motive that monetary management （or, in the absence of management, chance changes in the quantity of money） is brought to bear on the economic system. For the demand for money to satisfy the former motives is generally irresponsive to any influenc

23、e except the actual occurrence of a change in the general economic activity and the level of incomes; whereas experience indicates that the aggregate demand for money to satisfy the speculative-motive usually shows a continuous response to gradual changes in the rate of interest, i.e. there is a con

24、tinuous curve relating changes in the demand for money to satisfy the speculative motive and changes in the rate of interest as given by changes in the prices of bonds and debts of various maturities. 在正常情况下，满足交易动机和谨慎动机所需要的货币数量，只是经济体系的通常活动和货币收入水平的结果。然而，正是由于能利用投机动机的作用，所以对货币数量的控制（或者是在不施加控制的情形中，货币数量的自我

25、变动）才能对经济制度施加影响，因为，由于为满足前两个动机而引致的对货币的需求，除去对通常的经济活动和收入水平的变动的实际反应之外，一般不受任何其他影响。而经验指出：满足投机动机而引致的货币需求总量，却常常表现出随着利息率的逐渐变动而不断地变化。也就是说，存在一条连续的曲线，它显示出：满足投机动机对货币需求量的变动和由债券价格的变动与不同期限的债务所决定的利息率变动之间的关系。Indeed, if this were not so, open market operations would be impracticable. I have said that experience indicat

26、es the continuous relationship stated above, because in normal circumstances the banking system is in fact always able to purchase （or sell） bonds in exchange for cash by bidding the price of bonds up （or down） in the market by a modest amount; and the larger the quantity of cash which they seek to

27、create （or cancel） by purchasing （or selling） bonds and debts, the greater must be the fall （or rise） in the rate of interest. Where, however, （as in the United States, 1933-1934） open-market operations have been limited to the purchase of very short-dated securities, the effect may, of course, be m

28、ainly confined to the very short-term rate of interest and have but little reaction on the much more important long-term rates of interest. 诚然，如果不存在这种关系，则“公开市场业务”就不可能实行。我已指出，经验已经表明存在上述具有连续性的关系，理由在于：在正常情况下，整个银行制度实际上总能够在市场上通过少量提高（或降低）债券价格来购买（或售出）债券以换取现金。银行制度想要通过购买（或售出）债券或债务而创造（或吸纳）的现金数量越多，利息率的下降（或上升）就

29、越大。当然，在公开市场业务的买卖仅限于期限很短的债券的地方（或19331934年间的美国），它的影响主要限于期限很短的利息率，而对更为重要的长期利息率只具有很小的影响。In dealing with the speculative-motive it is, however, important to distinguish between the changes in the rate of interest which are due to changes in the supply of money available to satisfy the speculative-motive,

30、 without there having been any change in the liquidity function, and those which are primarily due to changes in expectation affecting the liquidity function itself. Open-market operations may, indeed, influence the rate of interest through both channels; since they may not only change the volume of

31、 money, but may also give rise to changed expectations concerning the future policy of the Central Bank or of the Government. Changes in the liquidity function itself, due to a change in the news which causes revision of expectations, will often be discontinuous, and will, therefore, give rise to a

32、corresponding discontinuity of change in the rate of interest. Only, indeed, in so far as the change in the news is differently interpreted by different individuals or affects individual interests differently will there be room for any increased activity of dealing in the bond market. If the change in the news affects the judgment and the requirements of everyone in precisely the same way, the rate of interest （as indicated by the prices of bonds and debts） will be adjusted forthwith to the new situation w