1、选自商务英语阅读CHAPTER2选自商务英语阅读CHAPTER 2第一单元The New EconomyI. 教学目的美国经济在上个世纪九十年代持续增长,历时之长,虽不是前无古人,但也是屈指可数。为许多经济学家、业界和媒体津津乐道,称之为“新经济”。但也有很多人并不以为然。通过本课的学习,使学生粗略了解九十年代美国经济的概况。本课的作者是大力推崇新经济的,但我们更要看到正方和反方各自的论点。通过本课的学习,也要学生初步掌握基本的阅读技巧,如浏览和寻找段落的主题句、中心思想总结、等。 本文的中心思想:1. Is there such a thing as New Economy, if yes,
2、 what is it?2. What is the prospect of American economy against the background of economic slowdown.3. What is there to drive the growth of American economy?II. 教学计划本课用时4小时,介绍背景知识、难点、重点知识、课文串讲等用时2.5小时。讨论、课堂练习1.5小时。III. 教学方法采用口授法讲解课文和难点、疑点,用探讨研究法讨论练习,再结合翻译技巧的传授。让学生找出文章中词语的reference(形成技能技巧),翻译、分析句子,以检
3、查知识技能。IV. 背景知识 “美国新经济”指的是20 世纪90 年代克林顿政府执政以来美国经济的发展状况。美国经济持续增长达近10 年,为解释这种现象,“美国新经济”理论应运而生。2001 年3 月份以来,美国经济出现衰退,人们又把衰退的原因怪罪于新经济引发的经济泡沫。如何看待新经济,这套理论是否反映实际?如何看待当前美国经济衰退,它对美国经济和世界经济有何影响?这些都是“美国新经济”引出的话题。1美国新经济的产生与内涵1996 年12 月30 日美国商业周刊首次提出“美国新经济”概念,并在美国引起一场大讨论。目前,尽管对新经济的说法还有争论,尤其是美国的主流经济学派不予认同,但是,美国经济
4、的出色表现使这一概念日益被越来越多的人接受。1997 年2 月美国总统克林顿以官方的语言确认新经济和知识经济的概念,并把它作为推动经济增长的一项国策。1999 年6 月29 日,克林顿回顾上任以来的经济成就时讲,“我的确对新经济充满信心”。布什政府上台以来美国经济滑坡,“美国新经济”的提法又受到许多人的怀疑和反对。美国进步政策研究所将新经济定义为:新经济是以知识和思想为基础的经济。在这一经济中,创造就业和提高生活水平的关键是体现在服务和制造业产品中的创新思想和技术。在这一经济中,风险、不确定性和连续的变革是法则。新经济是一种高技术、服务和办公室型的经济,是建立在新技术、新劳动组织方式和新产业基
5、础之上的经济,是建立在贸易依存度不断提高基础之上的经济,是建立在对外投资不断提高基础之上的经济。新经济的依托是不断创新、迅速发展的高新科技公司。新经济既加剧了市场竞争又增加了竞争对手之间的合作;加快了公司和就业的新陈代谢;极大地扩大了生产需求和消费需求;使产品生命周期缩短;大大降低了生产成本和价格。2关于“美国新经济”的争论第一,对科技进步和信息技术作用的看法不同。新经济论认为,科技进步和信息技术使智力要素超过资本和体力劳动要素,革新比大规模生产更重要。反对者认为,智力不能替代资本,科技进步的作用不像人们说的那么大。尽管在新技术领域投入成百亿美元,生产率几乎没有什么变化。新经济时期人们极度乐观
6、和追逐时髦行为,结果乐极生悲。人们对技术创新的含义发生误解。例如,IT 技术可以通过吸纳信息降低成本,但过量信息摄取会与企业的市场业绩不一致。消费者也可以凭借较好的价格信息使自己变成为生产者,从而扩大市场供给。人们以为在新经济下可以通过扩大需求来扩大规模经济和降低价格,但是,这种过剩的需求带来的却是通货膨胀。在需求变化太快、不易把握的情况下,紧缩存货控制会使生产在短暂期间发生巨大变化。存货将不再成为生产和销售之间的缓冲器。快速的生产调整避免过去商业周期中的非平衡现象。先进的信息技术不能消除潜在的金融风险,只能提供防范实际风险的技术手段,以及减轻金钱财富损失程度。第二,对失业率和通货膨胀率关系的
7、看法不同。传统理论认为,失业率降到一定程度,就会引发通货膨胀。1996 年前,美国学术界还认为,只要失业率降到5.5-6%以下,就会引发通货膨胀。而近3 年来的事实是:失业率在4%以下,年均增长率接近4% ,通货膨胀率却在2%以下。新经济论对这种现象的解释是,高新技术带来的生产率提高在很大程度上弥补了劳动力成本增加,从而抑制了通货膨胀。新经济的反对者则认为,通货膨胀并没有熄灭,仍存在复发的潜在危险。第三,对经济全球化的不同看法。新经济的反对者认为,经济全球化加深人们之间的隔阂,通过网络进行投资的人和把钱存在银行的人之间的鸿沟越来越大。美国工会和劳动密集型产业的工人也反对经济全球化。新经济论者则
8、认为,经济全球化使美国的外贸依存度提高,有利于开拓海外市场、引进国外竞争、优化产业结构、提高生产率,创造更多新的就业机会。笔者认为,新经济是一种新的经济形态或新的生产方式,尽管发展尚不成熟,但它对美国经济将产生长远的影响。第四,如何评价美国经济短期下滑与长期增长的关系。一种观点认为,美国经济在2001 年出现的大幅度下滑,主要集中在第2 和第3 季度,到第4 季度会缓慢、稳步上升,这种走势会持续到2002 年。2001 年美国经济的增长率在1.0%左右,大大低于上年的修正数字4% ,2002 年的增长率将会是2.6% ,2003 年将是3.6% 。电信部门的恢复要比整个美国经济的恢复慢一些,估
9、计要等二三年才能恢复正常增长。美国经济正处于信息技术革命的中途,其应用带来的生产率增长估计还会持续一二十年。美国经济顾问委员会预测,2000-2008 年,非农业部门的劳动生产率年均增长2.3% ,1973-1990 年为1.4% ,1990- 2000 年为2.2% 。2000- 2010 年,GDP 增长率为3.4% ,失业率为5% 。最近一期商业周刊载文认为,由技术驱动的新经济革命并没有消失,正在以惊人的方式演变着。生物技术将会带动医疗保健业脱颖而出,成为下一次经济繁荣的推动力(曼得尔,2001)。从美国经济长期走势看,90 年代末以来,生产率与25 年前相比有了很大的提高。1995-1
10、999 年的5 年间,美国经济生产率年均增长4.8% ,这个增长率近一半的贡献来自劳动力投入的增加,这是劳动力的一个自然增长率,而且还得益于90 年代初失业率的下降;另外一半多一些的贡献来自平均劳动生产率的提高。这个时期劳动生产率的增长是25 年前的2 倍。这些数字表明了一些基本事实,但是如何解释这个事实仍然存在争议。美国西北大学的Robert Gordon 认为,美国经济生产率的提高只是暂时的。另外一种观点认为美国经济生产率的提高意味着经济发生了本质性的变化,而且这一趋势至少还将持续二三十年。格林斯潘属于后者。美国的货币政策在过去的五六年中非常成功。鉴于美国经济90 年代末的加速增长,失业率
11、持续下降,从1992 年的7%强逐渐下降到目前的3.8% ,一些持有传统经济理念的人开始警觉。格林斯潘则认为,目前还看不到通货膨胀的迹象,最好暂时不要采取过激的行动。2001 年初以来,美国经济的增长速度大大放慢但恐怕要等到9-18 个月之后才能看出上述两种流派的观点谁更为有力。V. 重点讲解概念讲解price earnings multiple 价格-收益比例,行话“市盈率”,等于股票市场价格每股税后收益。它表示市场对该股票最近期报告收益所愿支付的倍数;即按当前收益率该股票从利润偿清的年数。市盈率高,说明人们对这个股票的将来看好,期望值高。price-earnings ratio (P/E
12、ratio, earnings multiple, market multiple, multiple, P/E ratio) A common stock analysis statistic in which the current price of a stock is divided by the current (or sometimes the projected) earnings per share of the issuing firm. As a rule, a relatively high price-earnings ratio is an indication th
13、at investors believe the firms earnings are likely to grow. Price-earnings ratios vary significantly among companies, among industries, and over time. One of the important influences on this ratio is long-term interest rates. In general, relatively high rates result in low price-earnings ratios; low
14、 interest rates result in high price-earnings ratios.Treasury bills: 财政短期证券。美国对Treasury bond, Treasury note and Treasury bill的解释是Treasury bond: A bond issued by the U.S. Government. These are considered safe investments because they are backed by taxing authority of the U.S. government. The interest
15、 on Treasury bonds is not subject to state income tax. T-bonds have maturitys greater than 10 years, while notes and bills have lower maturitys.Treasury note: The only difference between a Treasury note and a Treasury bond is that a Treasury note is issued for a shorter time (e.g., two to five years
16、).Treasury bill: This is held for a shorter time (e.g., three, six, or nine months to two years) than either a Treasury bond or a Treasury note. Interest on T-bills are paid at the time the bill matures, and the bills are priced accordingly.3rd industrial revolution: 第三次工业革命,即信息革命。The First Industri
17、al Revolution. In the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution started in Britain but soon extended to continental Europe and America. The Second Industrial Revolution.Despite considerable overlapping with the old, there is mounting evidence for a new Industrial Revolution in the late 19th and 2
18、0th centuries. In terms of basic materials, modern industry has begun to exploit many natural and synthetic resources not hitherto utilized: lighter metals, new alloys, and synthetic products such as plastics, as well as new energy sources. Combined with these are developments in machines, tools, an
19、d computers that have given rise to the automatic factory. Although some segments of industry were almost completely mechanized in the early to mid-19th century, automatic operation, as distinct from the assembly line, first was achieved major significance in the second half of the 20th century. Own
20、ership of the means of production also underwent changes. The oligarchical ownership of the means of production that characterized the Industrial Revolution in the early to mid-19th century gave way to a wider distribution of ownership through purchase of common stocks by individuals and by institut
21、ions such as insurance companies. In the 20th century, many countries of Europe socialized basic sectors of their economies. There was also a change in political theories: instead of the laissez-faire ideas that dominated the economic and social thought of the classical Industrial Revolution, govern
22、ments generally moved into the social and economic realm to meet the needs of their more complex industrial societies. 课文讲解1. Ionosphere: 电离层。大气层分为对流层、平流层(同温层)、电离层等。电离层高度大约在100公里以上,用来比喻高。注意:英语语言中的比喻修辞手段,其客体经常采用高科技的发展的前沿领域。例如汉语中比拟高的成语,有气冲霄汉,高入云霄,九重天等等,往往是传统的,科技中出现的新词汇引用不多。英语比喻“高”的,中除了本文中的ionosphere外,
23、西方报刊经贸文章选读中还有很多类似的例子:A high-octane mix of booming economies, fledging free-market policy, and pent up demand is shifting car sales throughout the developing world into warp drive.( p.314)繁荣的经济、初具雏形的自由市场政策以及被压抑的需求,这三者的组合,形成推动汽车销售高速增长的强大动力。作者把这个动力比喻为高辛烷值的汽油,把汽车销售推上了超光速增长。尽管汽油一词并没有出现,而只是用了mix一词,但辛烷值是衡量
24、汽油抗爆性能的指标,作者实际上用的是借喻。Warp drive,有人翻译为“曲相推进”,它是指以特定的方式让时空弯曲,从而使物体超光速运动。Miguel Alcubierre提出了一种能实现曲相推进的时空几何结构而知名。值得注意的是,作者的用词颇具匠心:Drive使人联想到驱车和行车道路,shift使人联想到汽车换档变速。读着这段文章,犹如进入一个虚拟的超光速世界,在warp drive上飙车兜风。2. Technology-driven increases in productivity: Drive:推动,由技术进步推动的生产力的提高。3. The tech investment cycl
25、e: 技术投资周期4. initial public offering: 第一次公开上市、原始股上市5. percentage point: 百分点,注意两个百分点和百分之二的区别。6. new sources of volatility: 这些新的不稳定因素7. capital spending binge: 投资热8. serviceable life: 服务年限、使用寿命9. sizzle:欣欣向荣10. reading: interpretation 解读11. critical mass, 临界物质/质量in nuclear physics, the minimum amount o
26、f a given fissile material necessary to achieve a self-sustaining fission chain reaction under stated conditions. Its size depends on several factors, including the kind of fissile material used, its concentration and purity, and the composition and geometry of the surrounding reaction system.1)The
27、smallest mass of a fissionable material that will sustain a nuclear chain reaction at a constant level. 2) The amount of matter needed to generate sufficient gravitational force to halt the current expansion of the universe. 3) An amount or level needed for a specific result or new action to occur:
28、“The sudden national uproar over drugs and drug abuse has reached politically critical mass in Washington” (Tom Morganthau).核燃料达到临界质量,就能维持核连锁反应。这儿用来比喻高科技投资积累达到一定数量,就能自我维持持续性增长。12. Froth: Notice the difference between bubble and froth. 作者不同意有泡沫,只承认有微沫。13. Capital deepening: 资本深化 c.f. capital widening
29、资本广化 Increasing the quantity of capital without altering the proportions of the other factors of production. This will occur where the capital stock and employment are both increasing. Where the capital stock is increased and the numbers employed remain constant or fall then production has become mo
30、re capital-intensive and capital deepening has occurred.14. Build it and they will come: 这是一个暗引,源于美国电影幻想成真,即Field of Dreams, a fairy tale celebration of the love of baseball, adapted by screenwriter/director Phil Alden Robinson from W.P. Kinsellas novel Shoeless Joe. Standing in the middle of a corn
31、field, Iowa farmer Ray Kinsella repeatedly hears a voice - the words of discredited Shoeless Joe Jackson, a member of the infamous 1919 Chicago Black Sox baseball team that threw the World Series: Build it, and they will come.So he turns one of his cornfields into a baseball diamond. Of course, ever
32、yone thinks hes crazy, but in time Shoeless Joe Jackson and other ghostly outcasts, who had previously languished in a sort of baseball purgatory, show up to play the game they still love. Soon men from all over the country join them at this baseball shrine, some just to play with the greats, others to mend the broken relationships they had with their fathers - But all are trying to get back in touch with simpler times through the purity of Americas grandest game.电影梦幻成真在商业上取得极大成功,片头字幕“Build it, and they will come”也广泛流传。作者引用这句话,显然是想说明,以IT
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