阅读与摘要PIW01Word文档格式.docx

1、2010-11-22 T201 Opec Prepares For Tough Start To New Decade（A1组必选）Opec is trying to mentally prepare its own members and producers outside the cartel for a rocky start to the new decade. If the global economic recovery continues at its current slow but sustained pace, oil supply will outrun demand i

2、n the first half of 2010 and Opec producers will have to rein in output to balance the market. Any hiccup in the economic recovery will lead to an even bigger surplus a fact not lost on worried Opec ministers when they met in Angola last month. Opecs own estimates suggest that it would need to trim

3、production by 400,000 barrels per day from November levels to prevent stocks from building next year, although PfW calculates that it might need to cut closer to 800,000 b/d. At the Dec. 22 meeting in Luanda, Opec decided to keep the official target for its 11 members with a quota Iraq has none at 2

4、4.845 million b/d, but actual output is some 2.2 million b/d higher, PIW estimates. The rollover of the official ceiling thus leaves Opec room to tighten supply by improving compliance without having to make any change to formal output targets.Opec ministers repeated what is likely to be a futile pl

5、ea for non-Opec producers to help deal with the crude supply overhang, acknowledging in the communique from last months meeting that they cannot bear the burden of stabilizing the market on their own. But if non-Opec producers were not prepared to help when oil prices were in the low $30s per barrel

6、 early last year, why would they help now, when prices are above $70/bbl? After all, prices around $75/bbl were described as excellent and perfect in Luanda by Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi, and Opec, despite its cautious economic outlook, believes prices are likely to remain stable. Angolan

7、Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, who was also Opec president during 2009, did show some frustration and urged solidarity: Opec cuts and others step in to fill the gap. But he also conceded that his own country was producing over quota just like Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela. And even th

8、ough compliance has slipped sharply in recent months, Opecs average 2009 output is expected to come in at a massive 2.7 million b/d below that of 2008 （PIW Dec.21,p2）.The drawdown in crude stocks has been halted by deteriorating Opec compliance and rising non-Opec output. But for now, Opecs bigger w

9、orry is a growing overhang in the products market, over which it has less control. Massive volumes of middle distillates, mostly diesel, have built up in onshore tanks and in vessels at sea （PIW Dec.14,p3）. Chances are that refineries will have to cut back runs further to draw down these stocks, and

10、 that means less crude will be needed, one crude trader noted. If that happens, Opec will need to deliver a drastic improvement in compliance. Will that happen?Everybody will, hopefully, comply with what they agreed to, Naimi said. And so far, things are holding.Opec might be able to ride out the cu

11、rrent storm, but new ones are brewing. Iraq, for one, has massive expansion plans that could see its output capacity rise from 2.5 million b/d to 11 million b/d by 2017. It will take an equally rapid expansion in demand to absorb all this new oil. Opec officials and delegates doubt Iraq can deliver

12、this increase in capacity at the pace it currently has in mind Baghdad sees the first new production from its two recent licensing rounds coming on line in 2011, but Opec Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said a timeframe of five to six years would be more realistic （PIW Dec.21,p1）. Other Opec del

13、egates also argued that it would take Iraq several years to put in place the pipelines, terminals, port expansions and other infrastructure to handle this new production capacity. T202 Copenhagen A Disappointment For Oil IndustryIt would be hard to find any group entirely satisfied with the deal tha

14、t emerged from last months UN climate change summit in Copenhagen, but the oil industry has more reason to feel disappointed than most. Months of hype and two weeks of frantic and often chaotic negotiations produced a three-page document that failed to give the industry the certainty over future cli

15、mate change legislation that it was looking for, and industry officials were critical of both the lack of a legally binding agreement and the lack of consultation with the energy industry over how future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be achieved. The so-called Copenhagen Accord, tabled

16、 on the final day of the conference by a collection of countries including the US and China, outlined the need for action and recognized that governments must limit global temperature rises to less than 2C. It also provided $30 billion per year of funding for poor countries to adapt to climate chang

17、e from 2010-12, and $100 billion annually by 2020. There were no details of emission cuts from specific countries, although the document did set a Jan. 31, 2010 deadline for all industrialized nations to outline their targets.Oil companies had been hoping that Copenhagen would lay the foundations fo

18、r a clear, consistent regulatory framework, but the eventual agreement fell a long way short of those expectations. It was unclear how the political will towards reducing carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions on display at the summit would translate into concrete action, Royal Dutch Shell said, while Norwa

19、ys Statoil, which had one of the largest oil company delegations, called on governments to do more and commit to greater goals （PIW Nov.16,p3）. Oil companies generally kept a low profile in Copenhagen, but most of the major energy firms did have representatives in attendance, usually a group of clim

20、ate change or government policy advisors attached to a major business lobby group. Senior level executives present included Statoil Chief Executive Helge Lund, former Shell boss Jeroen van der Veer and Opec Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri.The lack of a firm deal prolongs the current period of un

21、certainty and will make the changes necessary to meet emissions reduction targets more difficult and costly for all concerned. The delay may have been unavoidable due to the interminable arguments between developed and developing nations, but it is also likely to be expensive the International Energ

22、y Agency estimates that every year of delay in agreeing a binding deal adds an extra $500 billion to the cost of meeting emissions targets. The disappointing outcome may also impact peoples faith in the ability of government-led initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions, the American Petroleum Institute s

23、aid after the summit closed. As the summit progressed, delegates began to switch their emphasis from getting a deal done at Copenhagen to the next summits scheduled for May in Bonn and December in Mexico City. But there are few signs that the arguments that dogged the Copenhagen talks will be resolv

24、ed by then.On a more positive note, oil company officials said that the fact that the deal emerged from direct negotiations and eventual agreement between the US and China, the worlds two largest emitters, was a small step in the right direction. But governments still face an uphill battle to strike

25、 a deal this year, Shell noted after the summits close:Much needs to be done in 2010.T203Brazil Looks Forward To Year Of Delivery（B1组必选）Brazilians like to joke that their homeland is the country of the future and always will be. Brazils oil industry, however, doesnt really conform to that national s

26、tereotype, and in 2010 should start fulfilling some of its enormous potential. Pilot production will begin this year from the giant Tupi field, the first of the countrys huge offshore subsalt discoveries, while output will increase at existing fields in the Campos Basin, Brazils main producing regio

27、n, lifting oil output to 2.17 million barrels per day in 2010 from last years average of 1.96 million b/d, according to PIW estimates （PIW Dec.7,p5）. The Campos Basin will see several large fields starting up in the next year or two. State-controlled Petrobras will increase output from floating prod

28、uction, storage and offloading vessels on the Roncador, Albacora and Marlim satellite fields, while Chevron will ramp up production from its Frade field, which is set to reach peak output of 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2011. Norways Statoil starts development drilling on its Peregrin

29、o field in the second half of this year, aiming to start production in early 2011 and hit peak output of 100,000 b/d in 2012. In the subsalt zone, Petrobras plans to start pilot production of 100,000 b/d from Tupi in October. The Guara discovery is the companys next target, with an extended well tes

30、t due in May and first output in 2013. Petrobras is also considering an extended well test this year in Tupi Nordeste or Carioca.But while there will be plenty of drilling and development activity in the Brazilian upstream this year, there are unlikely to be many new opportunities for international

31、oil companies （IOCs）. The government will hold its 11th annual bid round in mid-2010, but the blocks on offer will be limited to onshore and shallow water areas. No blocks with subsalt potential can be offered until the government has approved major oil reforms currently making their way through Con

32、gress （PIW Mar.2,p3）. Political analysts expect the lower house to approve the reforms early this year, but a trickier battle in the Senate could delay approval for several months （PIW Aug.17,p1）. That would leave the national oil regulator, the ANH, with little time to organize a subsalt bid round before the end of the year.Away from the subsalt, 2010 is also shaping up to be a critical year in terms of changes in how both Brazil and the countrys oil sector are run. Presidential elections are scheduled for October, and with President Luiz Inaci