印度经济过热-欲赶超中国先深化改革.doc

1、 经济学家读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen JilongIndia overheats印度经济过热（陈继龙 编译）Feb 1st 2007From The Economist print editionIndia cannot run as fast as China without further reform不深化改革，印度就无法赶上中国THE Indian tiger is on the prowl1. （1）This week, in an apt piece of symbolism, Tata Steel, which dates back to t

2、he days of the Raj, leapt into the league of top producers when it bought Britains Corus, which includes the steelmaking remnants of the old imperial power. Nor is Tata alone: younger Indian companies such as Infosys and Wipro are storming international markets. Meanwhile, the worlds business people

3、 and investors queue up to lavish money on Indias talented engineers and computer scientists, 印度这只老虎正在四处觅食（寻找投资机会）。本周，塔塔钢铁集团（Tata Steel）收购了英国科鲁斯（Corus）集团，一跃成为世界最大钢铁制造商之一。塔塔创立于英帝国殖民统治时代（Raj），而科鲁斯又是古老的英帝国钢铁制造业历史的仅存见证，因而这次并购案具有很好的象征意义。塔塔公司并非特例印度新生代企业如Infosys和Wipro都在抢占国际市场。与此同时，世界企业人和投资者也纷纷把钱“砸”在才华横溢的印度

4、工程师和计算机专家身上。The roar from Delhi is echoing across Asia. After peevish2 years cast as Chinas underperforming neighbour, the huntress is now in hot pursuit. Over the past year the Indian economy has grown by an impressive 9.2%, not far behind Chinas 10.4%. At some point this year Indias growth rate co

5、uld even outpace Chinas; and if you measure things by purchasing power parity, India should soon overtake Japan and become the third-biggest economy, behind only America and China. 德里的热闹传遍了亚洲。印度这个“捕猎者”作为中国的近邻，多年来一直表现不佳，心情急躁，如今正奋起直追。过去一年印度经济显著增长，达9.2%，接近于中国的10.4%。在一定的时期内印度今年的增长速度甚至可能超过中国；如果按购买力平价（pur

6、chasing power parity, PPP）计算，印度很快就会超过日本，成为仅次于美国和中国的世界第三大经济体。（2）No wonder an increasing number of Indian businessmen, policymakers and economists are basking3 in the belief that their country is burning bright having at last broken free of its bureaucratic cage. An economy once famous for the “Hindu

7、rate of growth”, of 3% a year, was opened up by the reforms of the 1990s, many of them pushed through by the man who is now prime minister, Manmohan Singh. His governments latest five-year plan assumes that India can sustain average growth of 9%. Who can doubt “Incredible India”, to borrow the sloga

8、n of its tourism campaign?很显然，印度越来越多的商人、决策人士和经济学家满以为他们国家彻底摆脱了官僚主义的束缚，形势一片大好。这个曾经以“印度式发展速度”（即每年3%）著称的经济体，从上世纪90年代开始进行改革开放，其中很多改革措施都是由现任总理曼莫汉辛格推动实施的。辛格政府最新推出的五年计划指出，印度有能力维持9%的平均增长速度。用印度旅游业的发展口号来说，就是要建设一个“令人难以置信的印度”，这一点谁会怀疑呢？Tweaking the long tail揪住“长尾巴”（3）Fast growth is essential to pull millions of I

9、ndians out of poverty, so it is sad to pour cold water on this story. But that is precisely what is needed when there are so many alarming signs of overheating. Across India prices are rising fast, factories are at full capacity, loans are piling up. Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spur

10、red competition, forced firms to become more productive and boosted Indias trendor sustainablerate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit is almost certainly lower than the governments one. Historic data would suggest a figure not much above 7%well below Chinas 9-10%. 要想让数亿印度人摆脱贫困，就

11、必须快速发展，因此他们说要创造一个“令人难以置信的印度”，我们不好泼冷水。不过，当有种种迹象表明经济过热时，泼点冷水就很有必要了。现在的印度，物价快速上涨，工厂产能过剩，信贷不断增长。20世纪90年代初的经济改革确实刺激了竞争，迫使企业增强生产力，进而提高了印度趋势（或可持续）增长率，然而问题是事实上现在的增长速度几乎肯定比这一新确定的最大增速要快。如果对历史数据进行分析，略高于7%的速度应该比较合适，但要大大低于中国的910%。When you mention overheating, many analysts point towards China. Yet India displays

12、 far more symptoms of the disease. Inflation has risen to 6-7% (compared with 2.8% in China); a record 99% of Indian firms report that they are operating above their optimal capacity; and credit is expanding at an annual rate of 30%, twice as fast as in China. Unlike China, India also has a widening

13、 current-account deficita classic sign of overheating, as domestic output fails to keep pace with surging demand. And if you are looking for a stockmarket bubble, Indian share prices have risen more than four-fold over the past four years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a har

14、d landing will become inevitable.一说起经济过热，不少分析人士都会想到中国，不过印度的“过热征象”要严重得多。通胀已升至67%，而中国仅为2.8%；印度企业中有创纪录的99%报告说运转已经超过最佳产能；信贷以每年30%的速度增长，比中国快一倍。不同于中国的是，印度的经常项目赤字（current-account deficit）也日益恶化，而这恰好是经济过热的典型表现，它表明国内已经是供不应求。股市泡沫也存在，印度股价过去四年来增长了4倍，远远超过中国。如果无所举措，印度将不可避免地迎来经济“硬着陆”。The Reserve Bank of India has b

15、een too timid in cooling down domestic demand: although one interest rate was raised this week by a quarter point, the overall rise in rates over the past two and a half years has not even kept up with consumer-price inflation. But the main focus of the governments attention should be on supplyand d

16、ismantling4 the many barriers that keep its speed limit below Chinas.在为内需降温方面，印度储备银行（央行）显得过于缩手缩脚：本周虽然它把利率提高了25个基点，但过去两年半以来利率的总增长始终低于消费者价格通胀水平。不过政府的主要精力还是应该放在供给上，同时要搬掉令其最大增速度落后于中国的众多绊脚石。（4）So far, reform in India has focused on setting its inventive private sector free from the worlds most fearsome bureaucracy. This has unleashed5 entrepreneurial talent, but more change is neede