演讲稿了解中国的崛起演讲稿Word文档格式.docx

1、Acoupleofweeksago,IwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbyBNPParibasforwhenChinawillhavealargereconomythantheUnitedStates.GoldmanSachsprojected2027.Thepost-crisisprojectionis2020.Thatsjustadecadeaway.Chinaisgoingtochangetheworldintwofundamentalrespects.Firstofall,itsahugedevelopingcountrywithapopulationof

2、1.3billionpeople,whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear.Andwithinadecade,itwillhavethelargesteconomyintheworld.Neverbeforeinthemodernerahasthelargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountry,ratherthanadevelopedcountry.Secondly,forthefirsttimeinthemodernera,thedominantcountryint

3、heworld-whichIthinkiswhatChinawillbecome-willbenotfromtheWestandfromvery,verydifferentcivilizationalroots.NowIknowitsawidespreadassumptionintheWestthat,ascountriesmodernize,theyalsoWesternize.Thisisanillusion.Itsanassumptionthatmodernityisaproductsimplyofcompetition,marketsandtechnology.Itisnot;itis

4、alsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.ChinaisnotliketheWest,anditwillnotbecomeliketheWest.Itwillremaininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferent.Nowthebigquestionhereisobviously,howdowemakesenseofChina?HowdowetrytounderstandwhatChinais?AndtheproblemwehaveintheWestatthemomentby-and-largeisthattheconventio

5、nalapproachisthatweunderstanditreallyinWesternterms,usingWesternideas.Wecant.NowIwanttoofferyouthreebuildingblocksfortryingtounderstandwhatChinaislike-justasabeginning.Nowwhatisextraordinaryaboutthisis,whatgivesChinaitssenseofbeingChina,whatgivestheChinesethesenseofwhatitistobeChinese,comesnotfromth

6、elasthundredyears,notfromthenationstateperiod,whichiswhathappenedintheWest,butfromtheperiod,ifyoulike,ofthecivilizationstate.Imthinkinghere,forexample,ofcustomslikeancestralworship,ofaverydistinctivenotionofthestate,likewise,averydistinctivenotionofthefamily,socialrelationshipslikeguanxi,Confucianva

7、luesandsoon.Theseareallthingsthatcomefromtheperiodofthecivilizationstate.Inotherwords,China,unliketheWesternstatesandmostcountriesintheworld,isshapedbyitssenseofcivilization,itsexistenceasacivilizationstate,ratherthanasanationstate.Andtheresoneotherthingtoaddtothis,andthatisthis:OfcourseweknowChinas

8、big,huge,demographicallyandgeographically,withapopulationof1.3billionpeople.WhatweoftenarentreallyawareofisthefactthatChinaisextremelydiverseandverypluralistic,andinmanywaysverydecentralized.YoucantrunaplaceonthisscalesimplyfromBeijing,eventhoughwethinkthistobethecase.Itsneverbeenthecase.SothisisChi

9、na,acivilizationstate,ratherthananationstate.Andwhatdoesitmean?WellIthinkithasallsortsofprofoundimplications.Illgiveyoutwoquickones.ThefirstisthatthemostimportantpoliticalvaluefortheChineseisunity,isthemaintenanceofChinesecivilization.Youknow,2,000yearsago,Europe:breakdown,thefragmentationoftheHolyR

10、omanEmpireRomanEmpire.Itdivided,anditsremaineddividedeversince.China,overthesametimeperiod,wentinexactlytheoppositedirection,verypainfullyholdingthishugecivilization,civilizationstatetogether.Thesecondismaybemoreprosaic,whichisHongKong.DoyourememberthehandoverofHongKongbyBritaintoChinain1997?Youmayr

11、ememberwhattheChineseconstitutionalpropositionwas.Onecountry,twosystems.AndIlllayawagerthatbarelyanyoneintheWestbelievedthem.Windowdressing.WhenChinagetsitshandsonHongKong,thatwontbethecase.13yearson,thepoliticalandlegalsysteminHongKongisasdifferentnowasitwasin1997.Wewerewrong.Whywerewewrong?Wewerew

12、rongbecausewethought,naturallyenough,innationstateways.ThinkofGermanunification,1990.Whathappened?Well,basicallytheEastwasswallowedbytheWest.Onenation,onesystem.Thatisthenationstatementality.ButyoucantrunacountrylikeChina,acivilizationstate,onthebasisofonecivilization,onesystem.Itdoesntwork.Soactual

13、lytheresponseofChinatothequestionofHongKong-asitwillbetothequestionofTaiwan-wasanaturalresponse:onecivilization,manysystems.Nowthegreatadvantageofthishistoricalexperiencehasbeenthat,withouttheHan,Chinacouldneverhaveheldtogether.TheHanidentityhasbeenthecementwhichhasheldthiscountrytogether.Thegreatdi

14、sadvantageofitisthattheHanhaveaveryweakconceptionofculturaldifference.Theyreallybelieveintheirownsuperiority,andtheyaredisrespectfulofthosewhoarenot.Hencetheirattitude,forexample,totheUyghursandtotheTibetans.Orletmegiveyoumythirdbuildingblock,theChinesestate.Nowtherelationshipbetweenthestateandsocie

15、tyinChinaisverydifferentfromthatintheWest.NowweintheWestoverwhelminglyseemtothink-inthesedaysatleast-thattheauthorityandlegitimacyofthestateisafunctionofdemocracy.TheproblemwiththispropositionisthattheChinesestateenjoysmorelegitimacyandmoreauthorityamongsttheChinesethanistruewithanyWesternstate.Andt

16、hereasonforthisisbecause-well,therearetworeasons,Ithink.Anditsobviouslygotnothingtodowithdemocracy,becauseinourtermstheChinesecertainlydonthaveademocracy.Andthereasonforthisis,firstly,becausethestateinChinaisgivenaveryspecial-itenjoysaveryspecialsignificanceastherepresentative,theembodimentandthegua

17、rdianofChinesecivilization,ofthecivilizationstate.ThisisascloseasChinagetstoakindofspiritualrole.Andthesecondreasonisbecause,whereasinEuropeandNorthAmerica,thestatespoweriscontinuouslychallenged-ImeanintheEuropeantradition,historicallyagainstthechurch,againstothersectorsofthearistocracy,againstmerch

18、antsandsoon-for1,000years,thepoweroftheChinesestatehasnotbeenchallenged.Itshadnoseriousrivals.SoyoucanseethatthewayinwhichpowerhasbeenconstructedinChinaisverydifferentfromourexperienceinWesternhistory.Theresult,bytheway,isthattheChinesehaveaverydifferentviewofthestate.Whereaswetendtoviewitasanintrud

19、er,astranger,certainlyanorganwhosepowersneedtobelimitedordefinedandconstrained,theChinesedontseethestatelikethatatall.TheChineseviewthestateasanintimate-notjustasanintimateactually,asamemberofthefamily-notjustinfactasamemberofthefamily,butastheheadofthefamily,thepatriarchofthefamily.ThisistheChinese

20、viewofthestate-very,verydifferenttoours.ItsembeddedinsocietyinadifferentkindofwaytowhatisthecaseintheWest.AndIwouldsuggesttoyouthatactuallywhatwearedealingwithhere,intheChinesecontext,isanewkindofparadigm,whichisdifferentfromanythingwevehadtothinkaboutinthepast.KnowthatChinabelievesinthemarketandthe

21、state.Imean,AdamSmith,alreadywritinginthelate18thcenturysaid,TheChinesemarketislargerandmoredevelopedandmoresophisticatedthananythinginEurope.And,apartfromtheMaoperiod,thathasremainedmore-or-lessthecaseeversince.Butthisiscombinedwithanextremelystrongandubiquitousstate.ThestateiseverywhereinChina.Ime

22、an,itsleadingfirms,manyofthemarestillpubliclyowned.Privatefirms,howeverlargetheyare,likeLenovo,dependinmanywaysonstatepatronage.Targetsfortheeconomyandsoonaresetbythestate.Andthestate,ofcourse,itsauthorityflowsintolotsofotherareas-aswearefamiliarwith-withsomethinglikethetheone-childpolicy.Moreover,t

23、hisisaveryoldstatetradition,averyoldtraditionofstatecraft.Imean,ifyouwantanillustrationofthis,theGreatWallisone.Butthisisanother,thisistheGrandCanal,whichwasconstructedinthefirstinstanceinthefifthcenturyB.C.andwasfinallycompletedintheseventhcenturyA.D.Itwentfor1,114miles,linkingBeijingwithHangzhouan

24、dShanghai.SotheresalonghistoryofextraordinarystateinfrastructuralprojectsinChina,whichIsupposehelpsustoexplainwhatweseetoday,whichissomethingliketheThreeGorgesDamandmanyotherexpressionsofstatecompetencewithinChina.SotherewehavethreebuildingblocksfortryingtotounderstandthedifferencethatisChina-theciv

25、ilizationstate,thenotionofraceandthenatureofthestateanditsrelationshiptosociety.Andyetwestillinsist,by-and-large,inthinkingthatwecanunderstandChinabysimplydrawingonWesternexperience,lookingatitthroughWesterneyes,usingWesternconcepts.IfyouwanttoknowwhyweunerringlyseemtogetChinawrong-ourpredictionsabo

26、utwhatsgoingtohappentoChinaareincorrect-thisisthereason.UnfortunatelyIthink,IhavetosaythatIthinkattitudetowardsChinaisthatofakindoflittleWesternermentality.Itskindofarrogant.Itsarrogantinthesensethatwethinkthatwearebest,andthereforewehavetheuniversalmeasure.Andsecondly,itsignorant.Werefusetoreallyad

27、dresstheissueofdifference.Youknow,theresaveryinterestingpassageinabookbyPaulCohen,theAmericanhistorian.AndPaulCohenarguesthattheWestthinksofitselfasprobablythemostcosmopolitanofallcultures.Butitsnot.Inmanyways,itsthemostparochial,becausefor200years,theWesthasbeensodominantintheworldthatitsnotreallyn

28、eededtounderstandothercultures,othercivilizations.Because,attheendoftheday,itcould,ifnecessarybyforce,getitsownway.Whereasthosecultures-virtuallytherestoftheworld,infact-whichhavebeeninafarweakerposition,vis-a-vistheWest,havebeentherebyforcedtounderstandtheWest,becauseoftheWestspresenceinthosesociet

29、ies.Andtherefore,theyare,asaresult,morecosmopolitaninmanywaysthantheWest.Imean,takethequestionofEastAsia.EastAsia:Japan,Korea,China,etc.-athirdoftheworldspopulationlivesthere,nowthelargesteconomicregionintheworld.AndIlltellyounow,thatEastAsianers,peoplefromEastAsia,arefarmoreknowledgeableabouttheWes

30、tthantheWestisaboutEastAsia.Nowthispointisverygermane,Imafraid,tothepresent.Becausewhatshappening?Backtothatchartatthebeginning-theGoldmanSachschart.Whatishappeningisthat,veryrapidlyinhistoricalterms,theworldisbeingdrivenandshaped,notbytheolddevelopedcountries,butbythedevelopingworld.Weveseenthisint

31、ermsoftheG20-usurpingveryrapidlythepositionoftheG7,ortheG8.Andtherearetwoconsequencesofthis.First,theWestisrapidlylosingitsinfluenceintheworld.Therewasadramaticillustrationofthisactuallyayearago-Copenhagen,climatechangeconference.Europewasnotatthefinalnegotiatingtable.Whendidthatlasthappen?Iwouldwageritwasprobablyabout200yearsago.Andthatiswhatisgoingtohappe