贸易开放度与经济增长是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长外文翻译.docx

1、贸易开放度与经济增长是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长外文翻译贸易开放度与经济增长：是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长【外文翻译】本科毕业论文外文翻译原文 外文题目:Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led? 出 处:Applied Economics(2008, 40, 161173) 作 者:Titus O. Awokuse 原 文: Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led? Mos

2、t previous investigations have only focused on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential growth-enhancing contribution of imports. This article re-examines the relationship between trade and economic growth in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru with emphasis on both t

3、he role of exports and imports. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions were used to examine whether growth in trade stimulate economic growth (or vice versa). The results suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as the engine of growth may be misleading. Although th

4、ere is some empirical evidence supporting export-led growth, the empirical support for import-led growth hypothesis is relatively stronger. In some cases, there is also evidence for reverse causality from gross domestic product growth to exports and imports. I. Introduction The potential benefit of

5、outward-oriented trade policy for economic growth has been the subject of many empirical investigations. Although several studies have demonstrated the theoretical economic relationship between trade and economic growth, disagreements still persists regarding the causal direction and magnitude of th

6、e effects (Bhagwati, 1978; Edwards, 1998). The vast majority of this literature focuses on the causal effect of export on economic growth. The main question in the exportled- growth debate is whether an export-driven outward orienting trade policy is preferable to an inward orienting trade policy in

7、 stimulating economic growth. Some researchers argue that causality flows from exports to economic growth and denotes this as the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. The reverse causal flow from economic growth to exports is termed growth-led exports (GLE). The third alternative is that of import-le

8、d growth (ILG) which suggests that economic growth could be driven primarily by growth in imports. Despite the potentially important role of imports and import competition, relatively little attention has been devoted to the causal relationship between imports and economic growth. Most studies on th

9、e effect of trade openness on growth have primarily focused on the role of exports and have mostly ignored the contribution of imports. However, some recent studies have shown that without controlling for imports, any observed causal link between exports and economic growth may be spurious and thus

10、misleading (Esfahani, 1991; Riezman et al., 1996; Thangavelu and Rajaguru, 2004). Imports may be very important to economic growth since significant export growth is usually associated with rapid import growth. Furthermore, the export-growth analyses that exclude imports may be subject to the classi

11、c omitted variable problem. The fundamental causal relationship may actually be between imports and economic growth. Although numerous empirical studies have investigated the role of exports in economic growth, they largely focused on Asian economies, with few studies including Latin America countri

12、es. Earlier in their economic development paths, many Latin American economies mostly followed protectionist trade policies emphasizing the importsubstitution industrialization strategy. The current prevailing view among most development economists is that the import-substitution approach is detrime

13、ntal to economic growth as it inherently fosters production inefficiencies and encourages rent-seeking behaviour. In recent years, many Latin American countries have experienced major macroeconomic and trade policy reforms with emphasis on market liberalization and trade openness. The few existing e

14、mpirical investigations of the effect of openness on growth in this region have produced mixed and inconclusive results (Riezman et al., 1996; Xu, 1996; Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999; Richards, 2001). This study investigates the causal relationship between trade and economic growth for three L

15、atin American economies (Argentina, Colombia and Peru) within an integrated framework that explores the role of both exports and imports. This study makes contributions to the literature in several ways. First, in contrast to most previous studies of the ELG hypothesis, this study extends the tradit

16、ional neoclassical growth model by estimating an augmented production function that explicitly tests for the effect of both exports and imports on economic growth. Real exports and imports are included as two of the endogenous variables in the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model. This modelling framework also makes it possible to test for both the ELG and ILG hypotheses for these Latin American economies. Second, the article also adopts recent advances