excel股票估值公司估值模型(dcf估值、ddm估值、apv估值、ae估值、eva估值)表格文件下载.xls

1、最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。#原先的估值对应FCFF估值。#其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由现金流定义EBIT（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化预测前首先需要自己输入的数据3主营收入及成本：#各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要分析师自己做4预测假设：#各种假设条件5固定资产预测：#历史折旧和摊销7损益表及利润分配：#2003-2004A利润数据8资产负债表：#2003-2004历史数据7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：#无公式的单元格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目DCF估值（FCFF）：

2、#分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。#注意：#第二阶段（2010-2017）年数不可更改。#其他估值模型：#各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改）11输出结果：#2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。#原先的估值对应FCFF估值。#其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全DCF估值（FCFF）：#分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。#注意：#第二阶段（2010-2017）年数不可更改。#

3、估估值值过过程程中中所所用用的的固固定定参参数数参参数数数数值值无风险利率Rf5.00%平均风险股票必要报酬率Rm10.00%一般情景预测历史数据区名名称称20032004产产品品分分产产品品收收入入/合合并并报报表表炸药收入20,587.0023,960.00管类收入5,806.006,467.00索类收入1,890.002,297.00爆破工程收入6,152.006,978.00炸药收入增长率16.38%管类收入增长率11.38%索类收入增长率21.53%爆破工程收入增长率13.43%分分产产品品价价格格炸药均价/元/吨4,860.353,872.41管类均价/元/万发7,541.245,

4、259.54索类均价/元/万米3,302.465,688.08炸药价格上涨幅度-20.33%管类价格上涨幅度-30.26%索类价格上涨幅度72.24%分分产产品品产产销销量量炸药产销量/吨42,357.0061873.68管类产销量/万发7,699.0012295.75索类产销量/万米5,723.004038.27炸药产销量增长率46.08%管类产销量增长率59.71%索类产销量增长率-29.44%主主要要产产品品收收入入合合计计（万万元元）34,435.0039,827.00其它产品收入（万元）0.000.00其它产品占主营收入比例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）34

5、,43539,827调调整整比比例例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）调调整整后后34,43539,827主营收入增长率%15.7%主主营营业业务务成成本本预预测测20032004主营业务成本22729.0028039.00折旧人工硝酸铵煤电其他硝酸铵价格煤价电价其他均价硝酸铵用量煤用量电用量其他均用量主营业务税金及附加350.00401.00主营业务利润11356.0011387.00主营业务利润增长率0.27%主主营营业业务务毛毛利利率率33.99%29.60%子公司收入预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20032004贵州新联爆破工程有限公司97.62%贵州久

6、联化工有限责任公司51.00%贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司40.00%利润总额贵州新联爆破工程有限公司贵州久联化工有限责任公司贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司子公司净利润预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20032004贵州新联爆破工程有限公司贵州久联化工有限责任公司贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司合合计计少少数数股股东东权权益益333.00672.00调调整整后后少少数数股股东东权权益益333.00333.00672.00672.00公司产品结构调整计划表/来自04H招股说明书铵梯炸药/吨3000030000铵油炸药/吨12601380混装车铵油炸药/吨00粉状乳化炸药/吨00澎化

7、硝铵炸药/吨00乳化炸药/吨70508000火雷管/万发35702970普通电雷管/万发19312100钝感电雷管/万发00普通导爆管雷管/万发387430高强度导爆管雷管/万发00导火索/万米16401340普通导爆索/万米267300低能导爆索/万米00导爆管/万米29983300行业产品知道价调整状况（含增值税）/元/吨/元/万反/元/万米1994年指导价1996指导价岩石铵梯油炸药2831.44668.3岩石乳化炸药3437.94539.6煤矿乳化炸药4024.84855.5火雷管35003837电雷管6481.87274.3导火索5311.85709.6注:#按照05年指导价公司炸药

8、实际调升630元/吨,管类调升670元/吨,索类调升470元/吨,幅度分别为15%12%与14%.2003A耗电660万千瓦时,消耗煤炭8800吨显性期预测20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E31,174.0034,677.9640,781.2850,405.6655,446.2358,218.549,106.009,845.4111,357.6613,453.1514,125.8115,008.672,954.003,346.884,002.874,535.254,762.025,000.124,541.005,222.156,266.586,893.247,237.9

9、07,599.7930.11%11.24%17.60%23.60%10.00%5.00%40.81%8.12%15.36%18.45%5.00%6.25%28.60%13.30%19.60%13.30%5.00%5.00%-34.92%15.00%20.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%4,618.514,757.064,994.925,144.765,144.765,144.767,174.097,317.577,537.107,763.217,763.217,763.215,742.225,914.496,151.076,335.606,335.606,335.6019.27%3.00

10、%5.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%36.40%2.00%3.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%0.95%3.00%4.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%67498.0072,897.8481,645.5897,974.70107,772.17113,160.7712692.9013,454.4715,069.0117,329.3618,195.8319,333.075144.355,658.796,507.607,158.367,516.287,892.109.09%8.00%12.00%20.00%10.00%5.00%3.23%6.00%12.00%15.00%5.00%6.2

11、5%27.39%10.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%47,847.0053,092.4062,408.3975,287.3081,571.9585,827.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%47,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,8270.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%47,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,82720.1%11.0%17.5%20.6%8.3%5.2%20052006E2007E2008E2009E20

12、10E31019.0032507.4636094.0742617.3446367.0948785.783000.003240.003628.804354.564790.025029.527500.007950.008904.0010239.6010751.5811423.5513888.0014805.5016365.4019508.4321459.2722532.24497.31527.15553.51636.53623.80662.79407.96448.75471.83519.01510.90536.455725.736104.006747.118042.928847.219289.57

13、1550.001530.001510.001500.001500.001500.00320.00320.00300.00300.00280.00280.000.350.350.320.320.300.308.969.6810.8413.0114.3115.021.551.651.852.122.232.371165.591282.151474.471621.921703.011788.17508.00580.00650.00700.00750.00800.0016320.0020004.9425664.3231969.9634454.8636241.3443.32%22.58%28.29%24

14、.57%7.77%5.18%35.17%37.68%41.12%42.46%42.24%42.23%20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E6,687.008,363.00604.621,274.162,041.7520052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E505.00606.00666.60733.26769.92808.42945.101,134.121,247.531,372.291,440.901,512.941,065.001,278.001,405.801,546.381,623.701,704.881,242.001,336.941,470.64

15、1,617.701,698.581,783.511,242.001,242.001,336.941,470.641,617.701,698.581,783.513000025000150005000150050006200740003000350040000120001600020000030003600400088009700107001230023701770117057023002600280030900200025003000500600800100006008001000104074034014035060080010000600800100036004200560070002005

16、年指导价注:#按照05年指导价公司炸药实际调升630元/吨,管类调升670元/吨,索类调升470元/吨,幅度分别为15%12%与14%.2003A耗电660万千瓦时,消耗煤炭8800吨一般情景预测1 1、经经营营活活动动200420052006E2007E2008E主营业务收入同比增长率15.66%20.14%10.96%17.55%20.64%主营业务成本/主营业务收入70.40%64.83%62.32%58.88%57.54%主营业务税金及附加/主营业务收入（营业税率）1.01%1.06%1.03%1.03%1.03%营业费用/主营业务收入3.00%3.29%3.15%3.15%3.15%管理费用/主营业务收入13.52%17.32%15.42%15.42%15.42%实际税率22.62%26.14%24.38%24.38%24.38%股利分配比例0.00%109.31%50.00%50.00%50.00%2 2、营营运运资资金金200420052006E2007E2008E货币资金/主营业务收入75.62%59.76%59.76%59.76%59.76%应收帐款周转天数（相对于主营业务收入）56.1844.4850.335