exchange rate 全球汇率变动.docx

1、exchange rate 全球汇率变动contentAbstract 11. Introductions 22. Eurodollar 22.1 Data after global financial crisis 22.2 Impact of exchange rate 33. Chinese Renminbi 43.1 The data after global financial crisis 43.2 The possible future trend 43.3 The impact of exchange rate 53.3.1 Advantageous Influence 53.

2、3.2 Disadvantageous influence 54. Australian dollar and Japanese Yen 64.1 Data after global financial crisis 64.2 Impact of exchange rate 75. Conclusion 7Reference 8Appendix 9AbstractZhao Yongzhang concluded that change the balance of trade may lead the change in exchange rate, but there was no proo

3、f that exchange rate can lead the change of the balance of trade.（Zhao Yongzhang. 1996）after financial crisis, many of countries had a change of exchange rate. Financial crisis will affect certain demand. Consequently, it will lead the variety of trade. Capital market took a terrible beat in financi

4、al crisis. Many of the west countries used flexible exchange rates so that they easy to be affected. After financial crisis, the exchange rate in Japan, Australia, Europe, China and America become steady. But it also had effect on multinational trade. 1. IntroductionsFinancial crisis like a storm or

5、iginated from Wall Street to all of the world. Subprime crisis erupted in 2007, And then, it lead the global financial crisis in 2008. In the end of 2009, the European Sovereign Debt Crisis erupted. There was a variable in the balance of trade, and lead the exchange rate change. Prices are variable

6、according to the rate of exchange. It includes imports price and exports price. If the exchange rate increased, the cost of the goods product will increase and its competitiveness in the international market will be hurt. Therefore, the exchange rate is significant for multinational trade.Depreciate

7、 would push the export and appreciate may restrain export, so that adjusted balance of international payments. Fluctuation in currency exchange rate lagged in effect the balance of international payment. Namely, trade balance cant change immediately after variety of exchange rate. Instead it is vary

8、 in the reverse direction. After that, it could appear the right effect. (Paul. 2008.p.432.) Economics consider that business abhor risk. However, exchange rate fluctuate will rise the risk of international trade and is a negative influence to international trade. It is the reason that authority and

9、 business man attach weight on exchange rate fluctuate and hope had less fluctuate. It is also the reason why development countries adopt the fixed international exchange rate system and European countries establish the Euro area. 2. Eurodollar 2.1 Data after global financial crisisAffected by Ameri

10、can financial crisis, Eurodollar exchange rate to US dollar decreased from 1.3963 dollar to 1.2739 dollar down by 8.76 percent in the first three months. Even 2009 was Eurodollars birth of 10 years. But European Central Bank cut interest rate by 25 basis points, and exchange rate increased to 1.3665

11、 dollar in April. And then, it is in an upward trend until November to 1.5038 dollar.European Sovereign Debt Crisis erupted in 2009 December. It is a source of exchange rate of Eurodollar to US dollar decreasing. European Sovereign Debt began with Greece Sovereign Debt Crisis. Greece government proc

12、laimed financial deficit in 2009 shared 12.7 percent of that of GDP that is double of estimate 6.7 percent in October. International three major rating agencies cut down the credit quality of Greece sovereign debt. It marked the beginning of European Sovereign Debt Crisis. On the second phase, crisi

13、s spread leaded the exchange rate decreased further. Europe had a divergence of view on whether help the Greece and how to do after Greece Sovereign Debt Crisis. From 2010 January to April, Portugal, Spain was into European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and then Euro area such as Germany, France had more a

14、nd more pressure from European Sovereign Debt Crisis. In this period, the Euro declined from 1.4324 dollar to 1.3307 dollar against the US dollar. It is down by 7.64 percent. In order to protect the European economy the member state of the EEC pledged aid. The European Union, European central bank a

15、nd IMF furnished 45 billion Euro credit to Greece on April 4. However, Greek Secretary of the Treasury expressed they need refund 9 billion more to bridge them over before May 19. It meant the European Sovereign Debt Crisis become worse. It leaded a wave of sharp reduction from 1.3307 dollar to 1.19

16、25 dollar. It was down by 11.59 percent. Hereafter, Euro exchange rate was into a wave of sharp growth. Increasing from 1.1926 dollar to 1.3276 dollar and up by 11.32 percent. After June, Euro increased to 1.400 dollar with the drop of US dollar. Accumulate up by 17.40 percent. But Ireland Sovereign

17、 Debt Crisis becomes worse and worse in November. It leaded to Euro exchange rate decrease against US dollar again.（Zhang Guohong. 2010.）but Euro began rise since 2011.2.2 Impact of exchange rateObjectively, Euro passive depreciation stimulated European economic development. Some countries detected

18、that currency depreciation can promote economic development. So that leads the competitive currency depreciation on all of the world. Despite the European Sovereign Debt Crisis overshadowed the European economic development, but the weak Euro created an advantage for export. So the European economic

19、 recovery is better than what was expected. Use the same method, US increased the export and reduced the import via appreciate trade partners currency or depreciate own currency to reduce a trade deficit. 3. Chinese Renminbi 3.1 The data after global financial crisisCNY exchange rate is steady from

20、2009 to 2010 July. But there was a fluctuate from 2009 February to April. CNY exchange rate increase from o.14624 dollar to 0.14929 dollar in one month, but it reduced to o.14634 in the nest month. After 2010 July, CNY exchange rate was in an upward trend. It is rose from 0.14646 dollar to 0.15281 d

21、ollar between 2010 July to 2011 May.Because of low labor cost, China has the low price goods. It had a large advantage in international competitive market, so that certain countries push pressure on CNY to appreciate CNY exchange rate. Because of the pressure, CNY exchange rate appreciates against U

22、S dollar since 2010 July.3.2 The possible future trendOn the first five months of this year, china has trade surplus of 22.97 billion, a reduce of 35.1 percent. And the trade surplus was 13.05 billion in May. Trade surplus was increase further in April, but is below expectations. Analysts pointed ou

23、t that according to the trade surplus increase in the past five months, we can see Chinese trade surplus decreased overall(Dong Xiao. 2011.). Chinese trade balance will improve further and it can ease the pressure of appreciation. . On the other hand, Forasmuch the Chinese economy will continue to m

24、aintain rapid growth and faced the inflationary pressures, it is clear that the long-term trends is appreciation. But it does not have the foundation to considerably appreciation at present. The RMB exchange rate becomes a method that western counties use to limit Chinese economic development. (Li C

25、hong. 2011.)3.3 The impact of exchange rate3.3.1 Advantageous InfluenceAfter appreciation, Renminbi purchasing power increased in international. in the international energy and raw material prices keep rising, the Renminbi appreciates under the international energy and raw material prices keep risin

26、g can let the foreign goods in a lower price enter Chinese market, thereby lessen the cost of import of energy and raw materialsAppreciation is good for reduce pressure of debt servicing. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that, Chinese foreign debt balance was 386.7

27、72 billion dollars by 2009, more than 12.111 billion to the end of 2008, up by 3.23 percent. As the obligor, the due payments for external debt principal and interest of the local currency amount will be less along with the RMB appreciation. So that can reduce state and enterprise debt burden.Apprec

28、iation also can Reduce anti-dumping litigation. China has the advantage of low labor costs in the international market, which makes the made in China products welcomed extensively by global consumers. But the low price of the products will impact the importing country. RMB appreciate moderately can

29、reduce economic and trade disputes, to create and maintain stable trade environment.3.3.2 Disadvantageous influenceAppreciation can reduce the exporting trade. There are close link the level between performance and exchange rate. If exporting corporate raise prices for maintaining a certain profit,

30、it will weaken the competitive of export products in the international market, and it is bad for expansion the export and increasing market share of the product in the international market. Especially after the financial crisis, our country export atrophy, and exporting enterprise especially labor-i

31、ntensive export enterprise narrowed profit space, Renminbi appreciation at this time will make these small enterprises face the survival crisis.Appreciation can reduce the foreign investment. Nowadays, China had largest amount of funds in foreign currency from trading activities and inward investmen

32、t in the world. Foreign-funded enterprises played an important role in every field of our country to promote technical progress and improve the quality of management and increase the employment and expand the foreign trade. (Fang Jieqiong, 2010, p.92 )In order to reduce the RMB exchange rate fluctuations in expanding, under the condition that China has a large number of trade surplus and import and export trade flexibility is not very big, RMB exchange rate in a certain range appreciation will not worsen balance of the trade, and even improved trade structure. Renminbi appreciation h