最新美赛格式参考summary sheet精品名师资料.docx

1、最新美赛格式参考summary sheet精品名师资料最新美赛格式参考(summary sheet)精品名师资料For office use onlyT1_T2_T3_T4_Team Control Number10530Problem ChosenCFor office use onlyF1_F2_F3_F4_2011 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet Assessing the Prospects of Electric VehiclesSummaryWith the growing scarcity of petro

2、leum throughout the world, increased concern over the environmental impact of the petroleum-based transportation infrastructure has led to great interest in an electric transportation infrastructure. But uncertainty in how environmentally and economically sound are electric vehicles still exists, an

3、d that their widespread use is feasible and practical is still uncertain. Our paper aims to quantify the effects of the electric vehicles on the environment, society, economy, health, and model the amount and the type of electricity generation to get the most benefits to the environment, society, bu

4、siness, and individuals.In Model 1, we establish an evaluation model named Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to compare the environmental, social, economic, and health impacts of electric cars and fuel cars quantitatively. There are four parameters, including energy consumption, the greenhouse effect

5、, emissions of harmful substances and noise pollution, which influence the environment. Of course, we conduct the similar work to analyze the influential parameters of society, economy and health. In term of the weights, we conclude that in general electric cars are better than fuel cars.In Model 2,

6、 using data, we adopt logistic regression to predict the proportion of electric vehicles in the future on three premises which include the baseline oil price, the high oil price and Operator-Subsidized premise. As time goes, the proportion of electric vehicles is increasingly bigger and the amount o

7、f energy savings is increasingly bigger. By 2030, the proportion of electric vehicles in auto market is 86%. Then use the same model to conclude that the amount of oil saving is large.Similarly, we conclude that the amount of electricity generation is also increasing with time going.In Model 3, we e

8、stablish a function to express the total benefits that environment, society, business and individuals can get. Certainly, in different circumstances and areas, the choice of the type of electricity generation will differ. So we discuss under several circumstances how the function will change.Key wor

9、ds: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Logistic regression Content1. Introduction.2 2.Models.22.1 Model . .2 2.1.1 The introduction of AHP.32.1.2 Assumptions.42.1.3 The Foundation of Model.42.1.4 Solution and Result.102.1.5 Analysis of the Result.102.2 Model.112.2.1 Forecast the penetration rates of e

10、lectric vehicles.122.2.2 Additional Assumptions.13 2.2.3The impacts of widespread use of electric vehicle13 2.2.4 Summary . 14 Analysis of the Result.16 2.3Model173. Conclusions and Discussions.17 3.1 Conclusions of the problem.183.2 Strengths and Weakness.18 3.3 Future Work.184. References.18I. Int

11、roductionThe improvements in battery technology over the past two decades, in particular the advances in Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology as well as automotive technological advances ushered in by hybrid vehicles, have made it possible to design and manufacture electric vehicles with better p

12、erformance than their gasoline-powered counterparts.Since 2003, when the Toyota Prius was the first mass-produced hybrid gasoline-electric car and introduced worldwide, and G-Wiz electric car became the worlds best selling EV, electric vehicles has developed rapidly. The Nissan Leaf was debuted in D

13、ecember 2010 and other major auto companies have electric cars in development. Meanwhile various nations around the world are building pilot networks of charging stations to recharge them.Though the prospect of electric vehicles is splendid according to market analysts, governments and manufacturers

14、, electric vehicles share a minimalproportion of auto market and the historical data of them about production on which to calculate is poor. And nowadays heavy and long-range transportation and shipping is hard to achieve technically. In order to assess the prospect of electric vehicles, we choose e

15、lectric cars, especially in America, as a typical parameter to extrapolate the effects of electric vehicles.Electric vehicles have various advantages which can reduce gas consumption, weaken the greenhouse effect, protect environment and so on. However, people dont know whether the widespread use of

16、 electric vehicles actually save fossil fuels or we merely be trading one use of fossil fuel for another given that electricity is currently mostly produced by burning fossil fuels. People dont analyze whether or not the needed growth of these alternate sources of electricity is likely and possible.

17、Our paper aims to assess the impacts of electric cars on environment, society, economy and health, and , in terms of data, predict the proportion of electric vehicles in the U.S. in the future. Meantime, promote the prediction model to estimate the amount of oil the world would save by widely using

18、electric cars. Then, establishing a model of the amount and type of electricity generation to produce the largest number of benefits of the environment, society, business and individuals.II. Models2.1 Model There is a systematic method for comparing a list of objectives or alternatives. When used in

19、 the systems assessing process, AHP can be a powerful tool for comparing alternative design conceptsSo we consider the aspects of society, economy, environment and health as objectives, and that we are trying to establish a normalized set of weights to be used when comparing alternatives using these

20、 objectives. We list the factors which involve in society, environment, economy and health. 2.1.1 The introduction of AHPSteps of determining the weighs:1) Form a pair-wise comparison matrix A, where the number in the ith row and jth column gives the relative importance of Oi as compared with Oj.Use

21、 a 19 scale, with aij = 1 if the two objectives are equal in importance aij = 3 if Oi is weakly more important than Oj aij = 5 if Oi is strongly more important than Oj aij = 7 if Oi is very strongly more important than Oj aij = 9 if Oi is absolutely more important than Oj2) Thus we might arrive at t

22、he following matrix:3) To normalize the weights, compute the sum of each column and then divide each column by the corresponding sum4) Using an over bar to denote normalization5) The next step is to compute the average values of each row and use these as the weights in the Objective Hierarchy.6) The

23、n we can get the weights. These weights would be used in summing the measures as required in the evaluation of the Objective HierarchyNotes:1)2) The maximum eigenvalue, max of A is a positive real number.The operating steps of AHP consistency check:1. Compute the Consistent Index:.2. Findthe corresp

24、ondingaverage random Index:Table 1 The AHP Index Tablethe order of the matrix123456R.I.000.520.891.121.26the order of the matrix789101112R.I.1.361.411.461.491.521.543. Compute the Consistent Radio: When, we can consider Comparison Matrix as Acceptableconsistency.2.1.2 AssumptionsElectric vehiclesand

25、 fuelvehiclesare ina state ofwidely usedAllelectric vehiclesand allfuel vehicleshave similarpropertiesElectric vehicles have similar performance, and fuel cars have similar performance.2.1.3 The Foundation of Model1) We passed the reference previous studies and papers, judging that we should establi

26、sh an AHP model to reflect the effects on environment, society, economy and health when the electric vehicles are widely used. So, in this model, we regard respectively environment, society, economy and health as objectives. In addition, we analyze and list the relate elements according to the objec

27、tives as follows.Figure 1 Environment HierarchicalStructureAccording tothe dataand informationwe can gainthe impact of each of thesefactors on environment, and givethe above factorsthe order of significance.A1 A3 A2 A4According to the importance, we can get Comparison Matrix O1-A.Table 2 Comparison Matrix O1-AO1A1A2A3A411max=4.1145C.I.=0.0382C.R.=0.0429A114250.4869A21/411/330.1395A31/23140.3031A41/51/31/410.0705According tothe dataand information(from ), we get some results as follows:For thecriteriaof theA1,we getvalue 3 indicating that electric vehiclesis