玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度公式.docx

1、玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度公式玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度公式（修订）1.总则 1.1 编制的必要性和目的城市暴雨强度公式编制是城市室外排水工程规划设计的重要基础性工作。我国已经进入高速城市化时期，特大城市和城市群的出现，城市“热岛效应”凸现。城市降雨特征会发生局地性变化。已有数据表明，部分城市每隔10年左右出现超过历史记录的特大暴雨，玉溪近年来突发性、短时特大暴雨频发。依据水文气象频率分析的理论，基于已有的降雨记录数据，采用数理统计的方法得到的城市暴雨量、暴雨强度、降雨历时、时间空间的分布等，是科学表达城市降雨规律的一种方法，同时要认识到这种方法的科学性和局限性，以指导具体工作。城市财富的聚集和市民生

2、活水平的提高、城市地下空间的开发利用等因素使得城市对灾害的承受能力趋弱，降雨特征的趋势性变化对城市的防灾减灾提出挑战。新建、扩建城市室外排水设施的规划建设以及已建城市排水设施历史欠账问题的解决，都需要对城市降雨规律进行科学表达和定量分析。因此，开展城市暴雨强度公式的编制及修编是非常必要的。为了适用国家需求和玉溪城市发展需求，指导城市暴雨强度公式的编制及修编，特编制本编制玉溪本地暴雨强度公式。1.2条款涉及的国家颁布的有关标准如下（但不限于） （1）室外排水设计规范（GB500142006，2013年版）（2）地面气象观测规范（QX/T 52-2007） （3）地面气候资料30 年整编常规项目及

3、其统计方法（QX/T 22-2004） （4）地面气象观测资料质量控制（QX/T 118-2010） （5）数值修约规则与极限数值的表示和判定（GB/T 8170-2008）（6）水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范（SL44-93） （7）城市排水工程规划规范（GB 50318-2000）（8）建筑给水排水设计规范（GB 50015-2003）（9）公路排水设计规范（JTJ 018-97）2.资料及方法降雨资料是暴雨强度公式推算的基础，暴雨强度公式及查算图表编制应以国家气象站自记降雨资料为依据，资料使用玉溪市红塔区国家基本气象站1981年1月至2014年12月逐分钟降水自记资料。降雨资料完整、合理，

4、所用资料真实可靠。 暴雨强度公式及计算图表的编制国家相关规范推荐的方法基础上进行推算，推算方法及过程科学合理，采用滑动统计降雨历时的年度最大值雨量，滑动步长为1min，降雨频率分布曲线拟合中经用皮尔逊型、指数型、耿贝尔型函数的最小二乘法和高斯牛顿法运算比较。三种函数曲线的最小二乘法均能通过对均方差计算。均能通过平均绝对均方差不宜大于0.05mm/min；在较大降雨强度的地方，平均相对均方差不宜大于5规定的检验，皮尔逊型、指数型、耿贝尔型函数平均绝对均方差分别为0.032mm/min、0.026mm/min、0.029mm/min。根据技术导则城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则，最终

5、采用皮尔逊型分布曲线拟合，确定玉溪市暴雨强度公式，计算结果的精度能达到国家标准室外排水设计规范（GB500142006，2013版）规定的要求。3.暴雨强度公式和图表3.1暴雨强度公式暴雨强度算得的平均绝对均方差、平均相对均方差：平均绝对标准差：0.032mm/min平均相对标准差：3.83 %。3.2玉溪市暴雨强度历时重现期关系曲线图3.3不同历时强度频率曲线图3.4暴雨强度查算表玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=2年 t 单位：分钟； q 单位：升/秒/公顷tqtqtqtqtq1358.48637129.6277384.09910963.63314551.7772339.22138127.

6、5957483.32711063.2214651.5173322.14439125.6337582.57111162.81314751.264306.8940123.7387681.8311262.41214851.0065293.17441121.9067781.10411362.01714950.7556280.76642120.1347880.39311461.62715050.5077269.48343118.4197979.69511561.24315150.2618259.17344116.7588079.01111660.86415250.0189249.71145115.149

7、8178.3411760.4915349.77810240.99546113.5898277.68111860.12215449.5411232.93547112.0768377.03511959.75815549.30512225.45948110.6088476.40112059.415649.07213218.50349109.1828575.77912159.04615748.84214212.01350107.7978675.16812258.69715848.61415205.94251106.4518774.56812358.35315948.38816200.24952105.

8、1438873.97812458.01316048.16517194.89953103.878973.39912557.67716147.94418189.86154102.6319072.8312657.34616247.72619185.10855101.4259172.27112757.01916347.50920180.61456100.2519271.72212856.69716447.29521176.3595799.1079371.18212956.37816547.08322172.3245897.9929470.65113056.06316646.87323168.49159

9、96.9049570.12913155.75316746.66624164.8456095.8449669.61513255.44616846.4625161.3736194.8099769.1113355.14316946.25626158.0616293.89868.61313454.84417046.05527154.8986392.8149968.12413554.54817145.85528151.8756491.85110067.64313654.25617245.65729148.9816590.91110167.16913753.96717345.46230146.209668

10、9.99110266.70313853.68217445.26831143.5516789.09310366.24413953.417545.07632140.9996888.21510465.79214053.12217644.88533138.5476987.35510565.34714152.84717744.69734136.1897086.51510664.90914252.57517844.5135133.927185.69210764.47714352.30617944.32536131.7347284.88710864.05214452.0418044.142玉溪市中心城区暴雨

11、强度查算表 P=3年 t 单位：分钟； q 单位：升/秒/公顷tqtqtqtqtq1402.19937146.9497395.43510972.22214558.7632380.98638144.6537494.5611071.75414658.4683362.13739142.4377593.70311171.29214758.1774345.26540140.2967692.86311270.83714857.8885330.06641138.2267792.0411370.38814957.6036316.29442136.2237891.23311469.94615057.321730

12、3.75243134.2857990.44211569.5115157.0428292.27744132.4088089.66711669.0815256.7669281.73445130.5888188.90611768.65515356.49310272.01146128.8248288.15911868.23715456.22311263.01147127.1138387.42711967.82515555.95612254.65648125.4528486.70812067.41815655.69213246.87549123.8398586.00212167.01615755.431

13、4239.6150122.2738685.30912266.6215855.17115232.80951120.758784.62812366.22915954.91516226.42852119.2698883.9612465.84316054.66217220.42753117.8288983.30312565.46216154.41118214.77354116.4269082.65812665.08616254.16319209.43655115.0619182.02312764.71516353.91720204.38856113.7329281.412864.34916453.67

14、421199.60657112.4379380.78812963.98716553.43322195.06958111.1749480.18513063.6316653.19523190.75759109.9439579.59313163.27716752.95924186.65560108.7429679.0113262.92916852.72525182.74661107.579778.43713362.58516952.49426179.01662106.4269877.87313462.24517052.26527175.45463105.319977.31813561.9117152

15、.03828172.04764104.21910076.77213661.57817251.81429168.78665103.15410176.23513761.2517351.59130165.6666102.11210275.70613860.92717451.37131162.66267101.09410375.18513960.60717551.15332159.78468100.09910474.67214060.2917650.93733157.0186999.12610574.16714159.97817750.72334154.3577098.17310673.6714259

16、.66917850.51135151.7957197.24110773.1814359.36417950.30136149.3287296.32810872.69814459.06218050.093玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度查算表P=5年 t 单位：分钟； q 单位：升/秒/公顷tqtqtqtqtq1450.81937166.63373108.32210981.97514566.6862427.55138164.0474107.32911081.44314666.3513406.81939161.53675106.35711180.91914766.0194388.21640159.117761

17、05.40511280.40214865.6925371.42241156.77777104.47111379.89214965.3676356.17742154.51378103.55611479.3915065.0477342.2743152.32179102.65811578.89415164.738329.52644150.19880101.77811678.40615264.4169317.80145148.14181100.91511777.92415364.10610306.97346146.14582100.06711877.44915463.79911296.94147144

18、.2098399.23611976.9815563.49612287.61648142.338498.4212076.51815663.19513278.92549140.5058597.61912176.06215762.89814270.80250138.7318696.83312275.61215862.60415263.19251137.0078796.0612375.16815962.31316256.04752135.3318895.30212474.7316062.02517249.32353133.78994.55612574.29716161.7418242.98354132

19、.1129093.82412673.8716261.45819236.99455130.5669193.10412773.44816361.17920231.32756129.069292.39612873.03216460.90221225.95657127.5939391.70112972.62116560.62922220.85758126.1639491.01713072.21616660.35823216.0159124.7689590.34513171.81516760.0924211.39560123.4079689.68313271.41916859.82425206.9966

20、1122.0799789.03213371.02816959.56226202.79762120.7839888.39213470.64217059.30127198.78663119.5189987.76213570.26117159.04428194.94864118.28210087.14213669.88417258.78829191.27265117.07410186.53213769.51217358.53630187.74966115.89310285.93213869.14417458.28531184.36967114.73910385.3413968.7817558.037

21、32181.12268113.61110484.75814068.42117657.79233178.00169112.50710584.18514168.06617757.54934174.99870111.42710683.6214267.71517857.30835172.10671110.3710783.06314367.36817957.06936169.3272109.33510882.51514467.02518056.832玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=10年 t 单位：分钟； q 单位：升/秒/公顷tqtqtqtqtq1489.60937185.59173120.4451

22、0990.87214573.7062465.74238182.70874119.33211090.27414673.333444.31139179.92275118.24111189.68514772.9584424.95140177.22876117.17311289.10514872.595407.36841174.62377116.12511388.53314972.2266391.32142172.10178115.09811487.96915071.8677376.61243169.65879114.09111587.41215171.5118363.07644167.2918011

23、3.10411686.86415271.1599350.57445164.99681112.13511786.32315370.81110338.98846162.76982111.18411885.78915470.46611328.21847160.60883110.25111985.26315570.12612318.1848158.5184109.33512084.74415669.78913308.79749156.47285108.43612184.23215769.45514300.00750154.49186107.55412283.72715869.12615291.75451152.56487106.68712383.22815968.79916283.98852150.6988105.83512482.73616068.47617276.66653148.86789104.99812582.2516168.15618269.7554147.09190104.17612681.77116267.8419263.20655145.36291103.36812781.29716367.52720257.00456143.67892102