霍金GMIC演讲《让人工智能造福人类及其赖以生存的家园》.docx

1、霍金GMIC演讲让人工智能造福人类及其赖以生存的家园 霍金GMIC演讲让人工智能造福人类及其赖以生存的家园 霍金GMIC演讲让人工智能造福人类及其赖以生存的家园 Over my lifetime， I have seen very significant societal changes。 Probably one of the most significant， and one that is increasingly concerning people today， is the rise of artificial intelligence。 In short， I believe th

2、at the rise of powerful AI，will be either the best thing， or the worst， ever to happen to humanity。 I have to say now， that we do not yet know which。 But we should do all we can， to ensure that its future development benefits us， and our environment。 We have no other option。 I see the development of

3、 AI， as a trend with its own problems that we know must be dealt with， now and into the future。 在我的一生中，我见证了社会深刻的变化。其中最深刻的，同时也是对人类影响与日俱增的变化，是人工智能的崛起。简单来说，我认为强大的人工智能的崛起，要么是人类历史上最好的事，要么是最糟的。是好是坏，我不得不说，我们依然不能确定。但我们应该竭尽所能，确保其未来发展对我们和我们的环境有利。我们别无选择。我认为人工智能的发展，本身是一种存在着问题的趋势，而这些问题必须在现在和将来得到解决。 The progress

4、in AI research and development is swift。 And perhaps we should all stop for a moment， and focus our research， not only on making AI more capable， but on maximizing its societal benefit。 Such considerations motivated the American Association for Artificial Intelligences， two thousand and eight to two

5、 thousand and nine， Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures， which up to recently had focused largely on techniques， that are neutral with respect to purpose。 But our AI systems must do what we want them to do。 Inter-disciplinary research can be a way forward： ranging from economics， law， and phi

6、losophy， to computer security， formal methods， and of course various branches of AI itself。 人工智能的研究与开发正在迅速推进。也许科学研究应该暂停片刻，从而使研究重点从提升人工智能能力转移到最大化人工智能的社会效益上面。基于这样的考虑，美国人工智能协会(AAAI)于2008至2009年，成立了人工智能长期未来总筹论坛原文：PresidentialPanel on Long-Term AI Futures，他们近期在目的导向的中性技术上投入了大量的关注。但我们的人工智能系统的原则依然须要按照我们的意志工作

7、。跨学科研究可能是一条可能的前进道路：从经济、法律、哲学延伸至计算机安全、形式化方法，当然还有人工智能本身的各个分支。 Everything that civilization has to offer， is a product of human intelligence， and I believe there is no real difference between what can be achieved by a biological brain， and what can be achieved by a computer。 It therefore follows that c

8、omputers can， in theory， emulate human intelligence， and exceed it。 But we dont know。 So we can not know if we will be infinitely helped by AI， or ignored by it and side-lined， or conceivably destroyed by it。 Indeed， we have concerns that clever machines will be capable of undertaking work currently

9、 done by humans， and swiftly destroy millions of jobs。 文明所提产生的一切都是人类智能的产物，我相信生物大脑总有一天会达到计算机可以达到的程度，没有本质区别。因此，它遵循了“计算机在理论上可以模仿人类智能，然后超越”这一原则。但我们并不确定，所以我们无法知道我们将无限地得到人工智能的帮助，还是被藐视并被边缘化，或者很可能被它毁灭。的确，我们担心聪明的机器将能够代替人类正在从事的工作，并迅速地消灭数以百万计的工作岗位。 While primitive forms of artificial intelligence developed so

10、far， have proved very useful， I fear the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans。 AI would take off on its own， and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate。 Humans， who are limited by slow biological evolution， couldnt compete， and would be superseded。 It will bring g

11、reat disruption to our economy。 And in the future， AI could develop a will of its own， a will that is in conflict with ours。 Although I am well-known as an optimist regarding the human race， others believe that humans can command the rate of technology for adecently long time， and that the potential

12、 of AI to solve many of the worlds problems will be realized。 I am not so sure。 在人工智能从原始形态不断发展，并被证明非常有用的同时，我也在担忧这样这个结果，即创造一个可以等同或超越人类的智能的人工智能：人工智能一旦脱离束缚，以不断加速的状态重新设计自身。人类由于受到漫长的生物进化的限制，无法与之竞争，将被取代。这将给我们的经济带来极大的破坏。未来，人工智能可以发展出自我意志，一个与我们冲突的意志。很多人认为人类可以在相当长的时间里控制技术的发展，这样我们就能看到人工智能可以解决世界上大部分问题的潜力。但我并不确定

13、。尽管我对人类一贯持有乐观的态度。 In January 2015， I along with the technological entrepreneur， Elon Musk， and many other AI experts， signed an open letter on artificial intelligence， calling for serious research on its impact on society。 In the past， Elon Musk has warned that super human artificial intelligence， i

14、spossible of providing in calculable benefits， but if deployed in cautiously， will have an adverse effect on the human race。 He and I， sit on the scientificad visory board for the Future of Life Institute， an organization working to mitigate existential risks facing humanity， and which drafted the o

15、pen letter。 This called for concrete research on how we could prevent potential problems， while also reaping the potential benefits AI offers us， and is designed to get AI researchers and developers to pay more attention to AI safety。 In addition， for policymakers and the general public， the letter

16、is meant to be informative， but not alarmist。 We think it is very important， that everybody knows that AI researchers are seriously thinking about these concerns and ethical issues。 For example， AI has the potential to eradicate disease and poverty， but researchers must work to create AI that can be

17、 controlled。 The four-paragraph letter， titled Research Priorities for Robustand Beneficial Artificial Intelligence， an Open Letter， lays out detailed research priorities in the accompanying twelve-page document。 2015年1月份，我和科技企业家埃隆马斯克，以及许多其他的人工智能专家签署了一份关于人工智能的公开信，目的是提倡就人工智能对社会所造成的影响做认真的调研。在这之前，埃隆马斯克

18、就警告过人们：超人类人工智能可能带来不可估量的利益，但是如果部署不当，则可能给人类带来相反的效果。我和他同在“生命未来研究所”担任科学顾问委员会的职务，这是一个旨在缓解人类所面临的存在风险的组织，而且之前提到的公开信也是由这个组织起草的。这个公开信号召展开可以阻止潜在问题的直接研究，同时也收获人工智能带给我们的潜在利益，同时致力于让人工智能的研发人员更关注人工智能安全。此外，对于决策者和普通大众来说，这封公开信内容翔实，并非危言耸听。人人都知道人工智能研究人员们在认真思索这些担心和伦理问题，我们认为这一点非常重要。比如，人工智能具有根除疾患和贫困的潜力的，但是研究人员必须能够创造出可控的人工智

19、能。那封只有四段文字，题目为应优先研究强大而有益的人工智能的公开信，在其附带的十二页文件中对研究的优先次序作了详细的安排。 For the last 20 years or so， AI has been focused on the problems surrounding the construction of intelligent agents， systems that perceive and act in some environment。 In this context， intelligence is related to statistical and economic n

20、otions of rationality。 Colloquially， the ability to make good decisions， plans， or inferences。 As a result of this recent work， there has been a large degree of integration and cross-fertilisation among AI， machine learning， statistics， control theory， neuro science， and other fields。 The establishm

21、ent of shared theoretical frameworks， combined with the availability of data and processing power， has yielded remarkable successes invarious component tasks， such as speech recognition， image classification， autonomous vehicles， machine translation， legged locomotion， and question-answering systems

22、。 在过去的20年或更长时间里，人工智能一直专注于建设智能代理所产生的问题，即在特定环境下可以感知并行动的各种系统。在这种情况下，智能是一个与统计学和经济学相关的理性概念。通俗地讲，这是一种做出好的决定、计划和推论的能力。基于这些工作，大量的整合和交叉孕育被应用在人工智能、机器学习、统计学、控制论、神经科学、以及其它领域。共享理论框架的建立，结合数据的供应和处理能力，在各种细分的领域取得了显著的成功。例如语音识别、图像分类、自动驾驶、机器翻译、步态运动和问答系统。 As development in these areas and others， moves from laboratory r

23、esearch to economically valuable technologies， a virtuous cycle evolves， whereby even small improvements in performance， are worth large sums of money， prompting further and greater investments in research。 There is now a broad consensus that AI research is progressing steadily， and that its impact

24、on society is likely to increase。 The potential benefits are huge， since everything that civilization has to offer， is a product of human intelligence; we can not predict what we might achieve， when this intelligence is magnified by the tools AI may provide。 But， and as I have said， the eradication

25、of diseaseand poverty is not unfathomable。 Because of the great potential of AI， it is important to research how to reap its benefits， while avoiding potential pitfalls。 随着这些领域的发展，从实验室研究到有经济价值的技术形成良性循环。哪怕很小的性能改进，都会带来巨大的经济效益，进而鼓励更长期、更伟大的投入和研究。目前人们广泛认同，人工智能的研究正在稳步发展，而它对社会的影响很可能扩大，潜在的好处是巨大的，甚至文明所产生的一切，

26、都可能是人类智能的产物;但我们无法预测我们可能取得什么成果，这种成果可能是被人工智能工具放大过的。但是，正如我说过的，根除疾病和贫穷并不是完全不可能，由于人工智能的巨大潜力，研究如何(从人工智能)获益并规避风险是非常重要的。 Artificial intelligence research is now progressing rapidly。 And this research can be discussed as short-term and long-term。 Some short-term concerns relate to autonomous vehicles， from c

27、ivilian drones and self-driving cars。 For example， a self-driving car may， in an emergency， have to decide between a small risk of a major accident， and a large probability of a small accident。 Other concerns relate to lethal intelligent autonomous weapons。 Should they be banned。 If so， how should a

28、utonomy be precisely defined。 If not， how should culpability for any misuse or malfunction be apportioned。 Otherissues include privacy concerns， as AI becomes increasingly able to interpretlarge surveillance datasets， and how to best manage the economic impact of jobs displaced by AI。 现在，关于人工智能的研究正在

29、迅速发展。这一研究可以从短期和长期来讨论。一些短期的担忧在无人驾驶方面，从民用无人机到自主驾驶汽车。比如说，在紧急情况下，一辆无人驾驶汽车不得不在小风险的大事故和大概率的小事故之间进行选择。另一个担忧在致命性智能自主武器。他们是否该被禁止?如果是，那么“自主”该如何精确定义。如果不是，任何使用不当和故障的过失应该如何问责。还有另外一些担忧，由人工智能逐渐可以解读大量监控数据引起的隐私和担忧，以及如何管理因人工智能取代工作岗位带来的经济影响。 Long-term concerns， comprise primarily of the potential loss of control of AI

30、 systems， via the rise of super-intelligences that do not act in accordance with human wishes， and that such powerful systems would threaten humanity。 Are such days topic outcomes possible。 If so， how might these situations arise。 What kind of investments in research should be made， to better unders

31、tand and to address the possibility of the rise of a dangerous super-intelligence， or the occurrence of an intelligence explosion。 长期担忧主要是人工智能系统失控的潜在风险，随着不遵循人类意愿行事的超级智能的崛起，那个强大的系统威胁到人类。这样错位的结果是否有可能?如果是，这些情况是如何出现的?我们应该投入什么样的研究，以便更好的理解和解决危险的超级智能崛起的可能性，或智能爆发的出现? Existing tools for harnessing AI， such a

32、s reinforcement learning， and simple utility functions， are inadequate to solve this。 Therefore more research is necessary to find and validate a robust solution to the control problem。 当前控制人工智能技术的工具，例如强化学习，简单实用的功能，还不足以解决这个问题。因此，我们需要进一步研究来找到和确认一个可靠的解决办法来掌控这一问题。 Recent land marks， such as the self-dr

33、iving cars already mentioned， or a computer winning at the game of Go， are signs of what is to come。 Enormous levels of investment are pouring in to this technology。 The achievements we have seen so far， will surely pale against what the coming decades will bring， and we can not predict what we might achieve， when our own minds are amplif