电动汽车.docx

电动汽车.docx

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电动汽车

ElectricVehicles

Summary

InTask1,weestablishamodeltoanalyzetheinfluenceofwidespreaduseofelectricvehicleonenvironment,societyandeconomybasedonFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationmethod.Wesetthefuzzyobjectsasinternalcombustionenginevehicles,pureelectricvehiclesandhybridelectricvehicles.Consideringthedifferenceofenvironment,societyandeconomics,weuseofthreedifferentkindstodefinethefuzzyevaluationfactorsets.

Accordingtothedataandcalculatingresults,wefinallyobtainfuzzysyntheticalevaluationmatrix.Throughcomparingandanalysiswedrawsuchconclusionthatthewidespreadusingofelectricvehicleisbenefitforbothenvironmentandeconomics,whilehasdisadvantageousinfluenceforsomeaspectsonsociety.

InTask2,weestablishamodeltoestimatetheinfluenceofwidespreaduseofelectricvehiclesonenergysaving.Accordingtotheproportionofcoalresourcesinthewholeenergies,weuseLinearRegressionModeltoforecastthedevelopmentsituationinthefollowingseveralyears.Contrasttingenergyconsumptionsofelectricvehiclesandinternalcombustionenginevehicles,wecalculatethewholeenergiessavedbywidespreaduseofelectricvehicles.

InTask3,weestablishamulti-objectiveprogrammingmodeltoplanthenumberandtypeofpowerstation.Consideringthethermalpower,hydropower,nuclearpowerandsolarpowerasfourways,combinedwiththefundsofsettinguppowerstation,runningfundsandthecostofdealingwiththepollutants,wefindtheobjectivefunctionandfourconstraints,andfinallywereachoptimalsolutionusinglingosoftware.

InTask4,basedontheaboveanalysis,wegiveouradvicetogovernmentontheroleitshouldplayondecidingwhetherwidelyusingelectricvehicleandhowtoensuresafe,efficient,effectivetransportation.

Contents

Summary1

Solutions3

Symbolsusedinmodel3

Task13

Task1a:

EstablishmentofModel3

Task1b:

DataAnalysis5

Task1c:

Theevaluationofinfluenceonsocietybywidelyusingelectricvehicles8

Task1d:

Theevaluationofinfluenceoneconomicbywidespreadusingelectricvehicle10

Task212

Task317

Task420

References22

Solutions

Symbolsusedinmodel

Theobjectsetoffuzzyevaluation：

Thefactorsetoffuzzyevaluation：

Membership：

Single-factorevaluationmatrix：

Weights：

.

Standarddeviationof theelements：

Weightmatrix：

FuzzyComprehensiveEvaluation：

C

Fuzzy object （=1,...,m） ofthe comprehensiveevaluation value）：

Weightof acaraccident hazards：

B

Powerstation constructionproject weights：

、

、

Power Cost Fees：

Annualoperating costof powerplant：

Power pollutiontreatment costs:

Thetotalcostof power：

Z

Task1

Task1a:

EstablishmentofModel

Inthistask,weanalysistheinfluenceofthewidespreaduseofelectricvehiclesontherespectsofenvironment,society,economicsandhumanhealthetc.basedonFuzzySyntheticalEvaluation.

Assumethattheobjectsetoffuzzyevaluationis

andthefactorsetoffuzzyevaluationis

.

ThekeyproblemusingFuzzySyntheticalEvaluationmethodistosetthegradefunctionofmembershipandfindthedegreeofmembership.Inthispaper,membershipgradeshavetwokinds,weusepartiallargemembershipfunctionandpartialsmallmembershipfunctionrespectivelytofindthesetwokindsmembershipgrades.Thegreaterthefactor

is,thebettertheperformanceofevaluationobject,sothemembershipfunctionisanincreasingfunctionof

whichwecallpartiallargemembershipfunction.Onthecontrary,thegreaterthefactor

is,thepoorertheperformanceofevaluationobject,sothemembershipfunctionisandecreasingfunctionof

whichwecallpartialsmallmembershipfunction.

Wegivethedefinitionofpartialsmallmembershipfunctionasfollowing:

.

（1）

Andthepartiallargemembershipfunctionisdefinedasfollowing:

.

（2）

Thesingle-factorevaluationmatrixis:

.（3）

Afterweobtaintheevaluationmatrix,weneeddeterminevariablefactors’weightsinthefactorsets.Inmanycases,theseweightsareknown.Evenwedon’tknow,wecanobtainedtheseweightsthroughcertainmethods,commonlyusedmethodsarethestandarddeviation,expertScoring,etc..

Inthefollowing,wegivethedefinitionofthestandarddeviationmethod.

（4）

Here,

isthestandarddeviationof

rdlineelementofsingle-factorevaluationmatrix

.

Expertscoringmethodisarelativelyreasonablemethodinthisrespect,ittakesintoaccountthecomprehensivefactorstodrawareasonablevalue.Butnomatterwhichmethodweused,weshouldsatisfytheconditionthat

.

Throughcalculation,wecanobtaintheweights,anddefinethematrixofweightas

.

Thefinalandmostcriticalstepistoevaluatecomprehensively,thecomprehensiveevaluationmatrixis

（5）

inwhich

representsthecomprehensiveevaluationmatrixoffuzzyevaluationobjectsets,and

（

=1,…,m）isthecomprehensiveevaluationvalueoffuzzyevaluationobject

（

=1,…,m）,thebiggestvalueafterevaluationistheonewewanttoselect.

Task1b:

DataAnalysis

Inthefirstplace,weusetheFuzzySyntheticalEvaluationmethodtoevaluatetheinfluenceofelectricverticalonenvironment.

Inthisrespects,theFuzzyobjects

representsthevehiclesusingfossilfuels,pureelectricvehiclesandhybridelectricvehiclesrespectively.Fuzzyobjects

representsCO,

and

.

Firstofall,weneedtocalculatethepollutiononenvironmentofelectricvehiclesandfossilfuelvehicles.Comparedwithinternalcombustionenginevehicles,althoughtheelectricvehicleswouldnotpollutetheenvironmentdirectly,theyarenotreallyasgreenastheirpromotersclaim.Weneedtakeaccounttheindirectfactorsthatmaypollutetheenvironmentduringthepowergenerationprocess.Althoughelectricvehiclesmaynotthemselvesproducegreenhousegases,generatingtheelectricitytheyusedoes.Anelectriccardependsonthefuelmixatthepowerplantsinthecountryinwhichtheyaredriven.AnelectriccarinBritaintoday,forinstance,producesaround20%lessin

emissionsthanacarwithapetrolengine.

Inthefollowing,wefirstcalculatetheproportionofenergyrequiredtoproduceelectricityinUnitedStates.ThefollowinggraphshowstheenergyandpowerstructureofUS.

Chart1

Inthischart,wecanseethat18%oftheenergyintheUnitedStatescamefromnaturalgas,48%camefromcoal,and1%camefromoil.WhilethemainpollutantsproducedinpowergenerationderivedfromcoalandNaturalgascombustion.Wealreadyknowthatelectricvehiclesneed15kwhelectricitypowerper100kilometers,2.7kwhofwhichobtainedfromcombustionofNaturalgaswhile7.2kwhthroughcombustionofcoal.

Throughaliterature,AnEVrechargedfromtheexistingUSgridelectricityemitsabout115gramsof

perkilometerdriven（6.5oz（

）/mi）,whereasaconventionalUS-marketgasolinepoweredcaremits250g（

）/km（14oz（

）/mi）（mostfromitstailpipe,somefromtheproductionanddistributionofgasoline）.Thesavingsarequestionablerelativetohybridordieselcars,（accordingtoofficialBritishgovernmenttesting,themostefficientEuropeanmarketcarsarewellbelow115gramsof

perkilometerdriven,althoughastudyinScotlandgave149.5g

/kmastheaveragefornewcarsintheUK）,butwouldbemoresignificantincountrieswithcleanerelectricinfrastructure.Inaworstcasescenariowhereincrementalelectricitydemandwouldbemetexclusivelywithcoal,a2009studyconductedbytheWorldWideFundforNatureandIZESfoundthatamid-sizeEVwouldemitroughly200g（

）/km（11oz（

）/mi）,comparedwithanaverageof170g（

）/km（9.7oz（

）/mi）foragasolinepoweredcompactcar.

AfterconsideringtheproportionofinternalcombustionenginevehiclesandelectricvehiclesinUnitedStates,weobtainedthefollowingcharts.

Table1

VehicleTypePureelectricvehiclesHybridDiesellocomotive

（g）2.92.52.3

（g）19.651.370.5

（g）7286166

（g）115163170

Indeterminingtheimpactsofthesefourpollutantsweight,Greenhouseeffectisnowconsideredmoreseriousdiesellocomotiveweshouldsettobethemaximum.Combinedwiththeactualconditionandtherelevantliteratureandmaterials,wesettheweightasfollowing:

B=[0.150.150.150.4].

Butthepollutioncausedbytheincreasingneedtodisposeofincreasingnumberoflargebatterieseffectisalsogreat.Accordingtothedataweobtained,theusedbatteriescandamagehumanhealthandenvironmentgreatly.Forinstance,asmallbuttonbatterycanpollute600cubicmetersofwater.Evenafullystandards-compliantlowmercurybatteries（refertotheweightofmercurycontentoflessthan0.025%ofthebatterycell）,ifitisthrownintoacubicmeterwater,itwillmakethemercurycontentofwaterexceedsthestandard25times.Consideringthewidespreadusingofelectricvehicle,governmentshouldconsiderthedisposeofusedbatteriesconsiderably.

Task1c:

Theevaluationofinfluenceonsocietybywidelyusingelectricvehicles

Inrespecttosociety,weneedtoconsidertheinfluencegeneratedbywidelyusingelectricvehicles.Inthisissue,weconsiderthemainindexishowconvenienttheelectricvehiclecancause,includingthemaximumspeedVEcanreachandhowlongdistanceitcanreachoncetime.

Table2

Basedonabovedata,wecomparetheelectricvehicleandinternalcombustionenginevehiclesontwoaspectsasfollowingtable.

Table3

VehicleTypePureelectricvehiclesDiesellocomotive

Maximumspeed120130

Maximumdrivingdistance160300

Inthismodel,weselectthesetwokindsofvehiclesasthefuzzyevaluationobjects,using

representelectricvehicle