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淡江大学日间部
淡江大學日間部
九十四學年度第一學期教學大綱
(二)
商學院財金系碩士班
科目名稱:
(英文)Econometrics (中文)計量經濟學
授課老師:
聶建中;黃文光 博士HP:
http:
//mail.tku.edu.tw/niehcc
授課時段:
<二>2/3/4(09:
10-12:
00)授課教室:
B115
請益時間:
Byappointment研究室:
B-1001,Ba-832分機:
2591,2592,2090
教科書目:
1)Brooks,Chris(2002)“IntroductoryEconometricsforFinance,”1stEdition,
CambridgeUniversityPress(新月圖書)
2)Enders,Walter(2004)“AppliedEconometricTime-Series,”2ndtEdition
NY:
JohnWiley&Sons(雙葉書局)
3)Afewpublishedpapers(willbeassignedduringthesemester)
上課方式:
講課為主,輔以分組研究與報告,盡量深入淺出,活用教材,並強調實務運用,以雙向啟迪方式進行教學。
成績計算:
Midterm:
30% Quiz:
10%Assignment:
5%
Presentation:
15%TermPaper:
30%Participation:
10%
課程規劃:
Readingassignment
9/13Introduction(M.1;G.1;B.1/2)
9/20Probability,StatisticsConceptMatrixAlgebra(M.2;G.2/3)
9/27ClassicalLinearRegressionModel(M.3;G.6;B.3)
10/4ClassicalMultipleLinearRegressionModel(M.4;G.6;B.4)
10/11MLE&Cramer-RaoBound&MultivariateStatistics(M.3;G.4)
10/18Heteroskedasticity(M.5;G.12)
10/25Autocorrelation(Why"Time-Series"?
)(M.6;G.13;B.5)
11/1Well-establishedT.S.Methodologies(VARr.m.)(Ed-1/4/6;M.13/14;G.18;B.2/B.7)
11/8AdvancedT.S.Methodologies(Ed-5;M.14;B.7)
11/15~~~~~Midterm~~~~~
11/22NewlydevelopedTimeSeriesmodels;(UR)(Eviews4.1)&w/SB(ZA);(B.9)
11/29NewlydevelopedTimeSeriesmodels;(CI)(PO,HI,JJ,KSS)&w/SB(GH);(B.9)
12/6PanelURandPanelCI(&CI/ARDL)PSS(01);(G.14)
12/13Threshold,PanelThresholdHansen(99);(B.9)
12/20ThresholdCointegration&TECM:
(TAR&M-TAR)EG(98);(Ed-7)
12/27Linearvs.Nonlinear:
(Smoothtransition:
ESTARorLSTAR)T(93);MO(02);(Ed-7)
1/3NonparametricsCointegration(Bierens,97)
1/10~~~~~Final~~~~~ModelingVolatility:
ARCH/GARCH/ARCH-M(Ed-3;B.8)
教學內容及進度:
(下)
發表次
日期
內容
ReadingAssignment
(1)
9:
10~
12:
00
11/1
Instruction;ResearchMethodologies;
Why"Time-Series"(Autocorrelation);
(TraditionalVS.T.S.model);
Enders(2004);Brooks(2002)
~~~Handout~~~
Dataimport:
"E-Views5.0”,”Rats5.0”,“Gauss6.0”&"Microfit4.0"
(2)
9:
10~
12:
00
11/8
Well-establishedT.S.Methodologies;
VAR&DifferenceEquation;Lagselection;
Stationarity&Unit-Root;Cointegration&VECM;
Grangercausality;ImpulseResponse&VarianceDecomposition=>Computer:
Running"E-Views"
DickeyandFuller(1981)
EngleandGranger(1987)
Johansen(1988,1990,1994)
NiehandLee(2001);Nieh(2002);
聶&周(2002)
(3)
9:
10~
12:
00
11/22
NewlydevelopedTimeSeriesmodels;(UnitRoots)
UR(KPSS,ERS&NP)(KSS);UR/StructuralBreak(ZA)
=>Computer:
Running"E-Views"&“RATS”
Kapetanios,ShinandSnell(2003a)
Liew,BaharumshahandChong(2003)
Hasan(2003)//
ZivotandAndrew(1992)
NiehandYau(2004)
(4)
9:
10~
12:
00
11/29
NewlydevelopedTimeSeriesmodels;(Cointegration)
CI(PO,HI,JJ,KSS);CI/Str.Break(GH)
=>ComputerRunning"E-Views"&"GAUSS"
Kapetanios,ShinandSnell(2003b)
ChangandNieh(2004)//
GregoryandHansen(1996)
Granger,HuangandYang(2000)
FountasandWu(1998);聶(2004)
(5)
9:
10~
12:
00
12/6
AdvancedT.S.Methodologies;
G-IRF&G-VDC(PS);CI/ARDL(PSS);
(PanelUnit-Root&PanelCointegration)Banerjee(1999)
=>ComputerRunning:
"E-Views"&"Microfit"
PesaranandShin(1998);Ewing(2003)
HackerandHatemi-J(2003)//
Pesaran,ShinandSmith(2001)Bahmani-OskooeeandKara(2000);ADE(2001);VA(2002);
NarayanandSmyth(2004)
Nieh&Wang(2005);聶&周(2005)
(6)
9:
10~
12:
00
12/13
PanelThreshold;Estimation,Hypothesis,Testing…
TimeStructuralBreaks(BaiandPerron)
=>Computermanipulation:
Running"GAUSS"
Hansen(1999);聶劉(2003);聶楊(2004);聶劉(2005);聶顏(2005)
聶張(2004);NiehandLu(2004)
Bai&Perron(2003);聶&王(2004)
(7)
9:
10~
12:
00
12/20
ThresholdCointegration&TECM:
TAR&M-TAR(EG)
=>Computer:
Running"E-Views",“RATS”
Enders(2004)Ch.7
Enders&Granger(1998);
Enders(2001);Enders&Siklos(2001);
DibooĞlu&Enders(2001);Cook(2003)
Coakley&Fuertes(2002);Abdulai(2002);Bohl(2003);Menezes,Dionisio&Mendes(2004);NLC(2005);CNY(2005)
(8)
9:
10~
12:
00
12/27
Linearvs.Nonlinear:
(Smoothtransition)
ESTARorLSTAR;
=>Computer:
Running"E-Views",“RATS”
GrangerandTeräsvirta(1993);Teräsvirta(1994,1998)
Huang,LinandCheng(2001)
MilasandOtero(2002)
Khadaroo(2003)
(9)
9:
10~
12:
00
12/27
Linearvs.Nonlinear:
(Smoothtransition)
STECM
=>Computer:
Running"E-Views",“RATS”
Woodward&Anderson(2003)
Chang,Nieh,Yang&Chiu(2005)
McMillan(2004)
----------------------------------------------
(10)
9:
30~
11:
30
1/3
NonparametricsCointegration
=>Computer:
Running"EasyReg"
----------------------------------------------------------
UR/SST(GLS);UR/DST(HM)
UR/Nonlinear(E)
Bierens,97
Chang,Nieh&Chiu(2005);Nieh(2005)
Leybourne,NewboldandVougas(1998);
Sollis,LeybourneandNewbold(1999);
Greeneaway,andSarsford(2000)//
HarveyandMills(2000);
Pattichi(2002);Pat.andKanaan(2004)//
Eklund(2004a,2004b)
Chelley-Steeley(2004)
1/10
~~~~~FinalExam~~~~~
課前預習、課中專心、課後複習,為”成功”學習的不二法門,切實做去,則難者亦易矣!
**Paperreadingassignments:
[11/1]
(SpuriousRegression)>
Granger,C.W.J.andP.Newbold,"SpuriousRegressionsinEconometrics,"JournalofEconometrics,26,1974,111-120.
Box,G.E.P.andG.M.Jenkins,TimeSeriesAnalysis,Forecasting,andControl,SanFrancisco,CA:
Holden-Day,1976
Ljung,G.andG.Box,"OnaMeasureofLackofFitinTimeSeriesModels,"Biometrica,65,1978,297-303
Yule,G.U.,"WhyDoWeSometimesGetNonsenseCorrelationsBetweenTimeSeries?
AStudyinSamplingandtheNatureofTimeSeries,"JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSociety,89,1926,1-64
(SpuriousRegression)>
Granger,C.W.J.andP.Newbold,"SpuriousRegressionsinEconometrics,"JournalofEconometrics,26,1974,111-120.
Cheng,B.S.,"BeyondthePurchasing:
TestingforCointegrationandCausalitybetweenExchangeRates,Prices,andInterestRates,"JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,18,1999,911-24
Granger,C.W.J.,"InvestigatingCausalRelationsbyEconometricModelsandCross-SpectralMethods,"Econometrica,vol.37,January1969,24-36.
______,"TestingforCausality,"JournalofEconomicDynamicandControl,4,1980,225-252
______,"SomeRecentDevelopmentsinaConceptofCausality,"JournalofEconometrics,39,1988,199-211
He,ZongluandKoichiMaekawa(2001)“OnSpuriousGrangerCausality,”EconomicsLetters,73,307-313**(GC)
>
Dickey,D.A.andW.A.Fuller,"DistributionoftheEstimatorsforAutoregressiveTimeSerieswithaUnitRoot,"JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,74,1979,424-431
______,"LikelihoodRatioStatisticsforAutoregressiveTimeSerieswithaUnitRoot,"Econometrica,49,1981,1057-1072
Dickey,D.A.andPantula,"DeterminingtheOrderofDifferencinginAutoregressiveProcesses,"JournalofBusinessandEconomicStatistics,5,1987,445-461
Doldado,Juan,TimJenkinson,andSimonSosvilla-Rivero,"CointegrationandUnitRoots,"JournalofEconomicSurveys,4,1990,249-73
Elliott,Graham,ThomasJ.RothenbergandJamesH.Stock(1996).“EfficientTestsforanAutoregressiveUnitRoot,”Econometrica,64,1996,813-836(Eview4.1)
Kwiatkowski,Denis,PeterC.B.Phillips,PeterSchmidtandYouncheolShin,“TestingtheNullHypothesisofStationarityagainsttheAlternativeofaUnitRoot,”JournalofEconometrics,54,1992159-178(UR-NullofStationarity)(Eview4.1)
NgSerenaandPierrePerron.2001“LagLengthSelectionandtheConstructionofUnitRootTestswithGoodSizeandPower,”Econometrica,69(6),2001,1519-1554(Eview4.1)
Phillips,P.C.B.,"TimeSeriesRegressionwithaUnitRoot,"Econometrica,55,1987,277-301
Phillips,P.C.B.andP.Perron,"TestingforaUnitRootinTimeSeriesRegression,"Biometrika,75,1988,335-346
Schwert,G.W.,"TestsforUnitRoots:
AMonteCarloInvestigation,"JournalofBusinessandEconomicStatistics,7,1989,147-159
Zivot,E.andD.W.K.Andrews,"FurtherEvidenceontheGreatCrash,theOilPriceShock,andtheUnitRootHypothesis,"JournalofBusinessandEconomicStatistics,10,1992,251-270(Rats5.0)
Engle,R.andC.Granger,"Co-IntegrationandErrorCorrectionRepresentation,EstimationandTesting,"Econometrica,55,march1987,251-267.
GregoryA.andB.Hansen,“Residual-BasedTestsforCointegrationinModelswithRegimeShifts,”JournalofEconometrics,1996,70,99-126
Johansen,S.,"StatisticalAnalysisofCointegrationVectors,"JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,12,1988,231-254.
______,"EstimationandHypothesisTestingofCointegrationVectorsinGaussianVectorAutoregressiveModels,"Econometrica,59,1991,1551-1580.
______,"DeterminationofCointegrationRankinthePresenceofaLinearTrend,"OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,54(3),1992,383-397.
______,"TheRoleoftheConstantandLinearTermsinCointegrationAnalysisofNonstationaryVariables,"EconometricReviews,13
(2),1994,205-229.
Johansen,S.andK.Juselius,"MaximumLikelihoodEstimationandInferenceonCointegrationwithApplicationstotheDemandforMoney,"OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,52,1990,169-210.
______,"TestingStructuralHypothesesinaMultivariateCointegrationAnalysisofthePPPandtheUIPfortheUK,"JournalofEconometrics,53,1992,211-244.
Shin,Youncheol(1994)“AResidual-BasedTestoftheNullofCointegrationagainsttheAlternativeofNoCointegration,”EconometricTheory,10,91-115
(CI-NullofCointegration)
Stock,J.H.andM.W.Watson,"TestingforCommonTrends,"JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,83,1988,1097-1107.
(CI)>
Gonzalo,J.,"FiveAlternat