报刊选读lesson 7.docx

报刊选读lesson 7.docx

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报刊选读lesson7

Week6标题和导语p112

IsHarvardWorthIt?

Conventionalwisdomsaysyes.ButwiththepriceofadegreefromAmerica'smostfamousuniversityandothereliteprivatecollegesnowsurpassing$125,000,manyfamilies--andanumberofeconomists--aren'tsosure.Here'salookattheevidence.

ByJeremyKahn

May1,2000

（FORTUNEMagazine）–ForAmerica'shighschoolseniors,Aprilisthecruelestmonth.That'swhencollegesfloodthepostalsystemwithnewsofwhohaswonaplaceinnextfall'sfreshmanclass.Formorethanafewfamilies,adifficultdecisionwillfollow:

Isitworthpayingsome$125,000togivetheirchildaneducationataneliteprivatecollege?

Orwouldherfuturebejustasbrightifshewenttoalessexpensiveschool?

Thesequestionshavenoeasyanswers.Ofcourse,that'snottheimpressionyougetfromthe$500-million-a-yearcollege-admissionsindustry,withitsmagazinerankings,testprepcourses,andguidebooks.Certainlymanyneuroticboomerparents--andtheirstressed-out,resume-buildingteenagers--assumethatitisalwaysbettertochooseHarvardoverBigStateU.becauseofHarvard'spresumablysuperioreducationalenvironment,betteralumniconnections,andmorelucrativeon-campusrecruitingopportunities.

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It'struethatbiglawfirms,majorteachinghospitals,andinvestmentbanks--heck,eventheofficesofFORTUNE--arestuffedwithIvyLeaguers.It'salsotruethatifyouwantacareeratwhatpassesfortheAmericanestablishment--Sullivan&Cromwell,McKinsey,GoldmanSachs--agilt-edgeddiplomaisadistinctadvantage.Thenagain,there'splentyofanecdotalevidencethataneliteeducationishardlynecessary.SteveJobsdroppedoutofReed.JackWelchwenttotheUniversityofMassachusetts,WarrenBuffetttotheUniversityofNebraska.ThemajorityoftopCEOssurveyedbyFORTUNEin1990didnotattendanelitecollege（thoughadisproportionatenumberdid）.

Sowhatkindofreturnistherelikelytobeonthat$125,000investment?

Andhowdoesitcomparewiththereturnonalessexpensivebutalsolessprestigiouseducation?

Theacademicevidenceismurky.Tostartwiththebasics:

Collegepays.Onaverage,apersonwithanundergraduatedegreenowearnsalmosttwiceasmuchassomeonewithonlyahighschooldiploma,upfrom1.5timesin1975.

Theeconomicliteratureonthepayoffofgraduatingfromanelitecollege,however,asopposedtoanycollege,isfarlessconclusive.SeveralstudiesduringthepastdecadefoundaconnectionbetweenhigherfutureearningsandattendanceatacollegewithhighSATscores.Mostoftheresearchconcludedthatforeach100-pointincreaseintheaverageSATscore,agraduatecouldexpecta3%to7%increaseinlifetimeearnings.

Butthestudiescomparedschools,notpeople.Youwouldexpectgraduatesofselectiveschools--whichattractsuccessfulstudents--tohavesuccessfulcareers.（Itwouldbestunningiftheydidn't.）Whatsuchstudiesdonotmeasureishowanindividual'searningsareaffectedbythechoiceofcollege.IfstudentXgetsinto,say,AmherstandMichiganState,andchoosestogotoMichiganState,willXbeshutoutofAmherst-styleearningpotential?

OtherstudieshavetriedtoanswerthisquestionbylookingatstudentswithsimilarSATscoreswhoattendeddifferentkindsofschools.Researchersfoundthatthosewhowenttothemoreprestigiousschoolsreportedhigherearnings.

ButSATscoresarenoteverything.Admissionsofficesateliteschoolsincludemanyothercriteriaintheirdecisions--grades,extracurricularactivities,recommendations,essays,interviews.Thesefactorsmayrevealabilities,likegoodcommunicationskills,thatarefarmorevaluableintheworkplacethanaperfect1600.Becauseeconomistshavenodataonthesetraits,theytermthem"unobserved."Buttheyarehardlyunimportant.Untilrecently,noonehadtriedtocontrolforunobservedcharacteristicsinmeasuringtheeffectofaneliteeducationonearnings.

ThenAlanKrueger,aneconomistatPrinceton,andStacyBergDale,aresearcherattheAndrewW.MellonFoundation,designedjustsuchastudy.Inawidelypublicizedreport,releasedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearchlastyear,theyfoundnoeconomicadvantageinattendingaselectivecollege.Theirresearchlookedatthe1976freshmanclassat30schools,ranginginselectivity（determinedbyaverageSATscores）fromYaletoDenison.Thecollegesweremostlyprivatebutincludedafewpublicuniversities:

theUniversityofMichigan,Ohio'sMiamiUniversity,PennState,andtheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill.DaleandKruegercomparedtheearningsofstudentswhowereadmittedtothesamecollegesbutmadedifferentchoices.Thisensuredthattheylookedatsimilarindividuals.Inotherwords,becausethestudentshadbeenadmittedtothesameschools,theywouldhavehadequivalentSATscoresand"unobserved"traits.

KruegerandDaleconcludedthatsmart,talentedkidswhoattendedlessselectiveschoolsdidjustaswellintheircareersastheircounterpartsatelitecolleges.Therewasnodifferenceinaverageearnings.ThesametraitsthatmadethestudentsdesirablecandidatesforadmissiontoYale--ambition,intelligence,wit--carriedovertotheworkplace,wheretheywereduly（andcomparably）rewarded,eventhoughtheyhadturneddownaneliteeducation.Kruegersaysthisisbecausethepositivecharacteristicsattributedtoselectivecollegeswereactuallycharacteristicsofthestudents,notoftheschools.TheadvantagesofHarvard,inotherwords,conferfewbenefitsontheclassslacker.RobertZemsky,aneducationprofessorattheUniversityofPennsylvania,whobelievesaprestigiousundergraduatedegreedoespayoff,putsitthisway:

"It'slikethebrassringonamerry-go-round.Ifyougotoahigh-priced,highlyselectiveschool,youhaveabettershotatthebrassring.Butyouhavetograbit."

WhileKruegerandDalefoundthatcollegeselectivitydidnotaffectearnings,itdidmakeasignificantdifferencetothosefrompoorerbackgrounds.A200-pointincreaseintheaverageSATscoreofthecollegeattendedresultedin7%greaterearningsforstudentsfromfamiliesinthelowestfifthofincomedistribution.Kruegerattributesthistotheabilitytonetworkwithacriticalmassofaffluentstudentsandalumni."Thekidfromtheinnercitywon'thavecontactsatGoldmanSachs,"saysKrueger.Childrenfromwealthierbackgroundsaremorelikelytohaveagraspontheupperrungsofthelabormarket.

KruegerandDale'sresearch,whileintriguing,isnotdefinitive.Criticshavequestionedtheirmethodology,thelimitednumberandrangeofschoolsevaluated,andtheirconclusions.EvenKruegerfindsitoddthattheresultsseemtoshowthatwhilethereisnocorrelationbetweencollegeselectivityandfutureincome（exceptforpoorerstudents）,themoreacollegecosts,thehighertheearningsofitsgraduates.

CarolineHoxby,aneconomistatHarvardspecializingintheeconomicsofeducation,hasdoneresearchthatchallengestheKrueger-Dalefindings.SheplacedseveralhundredschoolsineightranksbasedontheSATscoresoftheirstudents.Shelookedatstudentswhoenteredthesecollegesin1960,1972,and1982,thenexaminedtheirearningsatage32.HoxbycontrolledforSATscoresbycomparingstudentswithsimilarscoresfromdifferentcolleges;shedidnotcontrolforunobservedcharacteristicsasKruegerandDaletriedto.Althoughshenotesthat"someoftheapparentreturnstograduatingfromamoreselectivecollegemayactuallybeattributabletotheself-selectionofstudentswhohavelowearningspotentialintolesscompetitivecolleges,"shedoesn'tthinkthisexplainsthewholedifferenceinincomebetweengraduatesofeliteandlesselitecolleges.

Using1997-98tuitionfigures,HoxbyconcludedthatastudentwhogaveupafullscholarshipataRankThreeprivatecollege（averageSATs:

90thpercentileinverbal,86thinmath）topayfullpriceataRankOneselectivecollege（averageSATs:

96thpercentileinverbal,93rdinmath）earnedbackthedifferenceincost3.4timesoverhislifetime.ThosewhomovedfrompayingaveragetuitionataRankThreepubliccollegetopayingaveragetuitionataRankOneprivateschoolearnedbackthedifferenceincostmorethan30timesover.Thatremarkablestatisticdemonstratestheveryrealgapbetweenwhathappensinclassroomsat,say,theUniversityofFloridaandMIT.（Hoxbydidnotcomparethedifferenceinmovingfromatoppubliccollegetoatopprivateone.）

Herfindingsarecomplementedbyotherstatisticalevidence.Intheir1995book,TheWinner-Take-AllSociety,economistRobertFrankandpublic-policyprofessorPhilipCookdocumentedtheincreasingconcentrationofthenation'stopstudentsatafewelitecolleges.Theynotedthatin1989fewerthan1%ofthe1.1millionstudentswhotooktheverbalSATscoredabove700.Yet43.8%ofthemgraduatedfromoneofthe33schoolsdesignated"mostcompetitive"byBarron's.Theconcentrationoftalentedstudentshashadapredictableresultonwherecompaniesgotorecruitemployees.FrankfoundthecompaniesthatrecruitatCornell,whereheisaprofessor,madehalftheirrecruitingvisitstothetop25schools.AmongcompaniesFranktermedelite--thosethatconducted70%ormoreoftheirinterviewsatthetop25schools,andwereeitherthelargestfirmintheirindustryorappearedonalistofthebestplacestowork--thenumberswereevenmoreskewed.

Thesefiguresmighthavechangedrecently,asstudentsatelitecollegestestthedot-comworld.（JohnKatzman,founderofthePrincetonReviewco