报刊选读lesson 7.docx
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报刊选读lesson7
Week6标题和导语p112
IsHarvardWorthIt?
Conventionalwisdomsaysyes.ButwiththepriceofadegreefromAmerica'smostfamousuniversityandothereliteprivatecollegesnowsurpassing$125,000,manyfamilies--andanumberofeconomists--aren'tsosure.Here'salookattheevidence.
ByJeremyKahn
May1,2000
(FORTUNEMagazine)–ForAmerica'shighschoolseniors,Aprilisthecruelestmonth.That'swhencollegesfloodthepostalsystemwithnewsofwhohaswonaplaceinnextfall'sfreshmanclass.Formorethanafewfamilies,adifficultdecisionwillfollow:
Isitworthpayingsome$125,000togivetheirchildaneducationataneliteprivatecollege?
Orwouldherfuturebejustasbrightifshewenttoalessexpensiveschool?
Thesequestionshavenoeasyanswers.Ofcourse,that'snottheimpressionyougetfromthe$500-million-a-yearcollege-admissionsindustry,withitsmagazinerankings,testprepcourses,andguidebooks.Certainlymanyneuroticboomerparents--andtheirstressed-out,resume-buildingteenagers--assumethatitisalwaysbettertochooseHarvardoverBigStateU.becauseofHarvard'spresumablysuperioreducationalenvironment,betteralumniconnections,andmorelucrativeon-campusrecruitingopportunities.
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It'struethatbiglawfirms,majorteachinghospitals,andinvestmentbanks--heck,eventheofficesofFORTUNE--arestuffedwithIvyLeaguers.It'salsotruethatifyouwantacareeratwhatpassesfortheAmericanestablishment--Sullivan&Cromwell,McKinsey,GoldmanSachs--agilt-edgeddiplomaisadistinctadvantage.Thenagain,there'splentyofanecdotalevidencethataneliteeducationishardlynecessary.SteveJobsdroppedoutofReed.JackWelchwenttotheUniversityofMassachusetts,WarrenBuffetttotheUniversityofNebraska.ThemajorityoftopCEOssurveyedbyFORTUNEin1990didnotattendanelitecollege(thoughadisproportionatenumberdid).
Sowhatkindofreturnistherelikelytobeonthat$125,000investment?
Andhowdoesitcomparewiththereturnonalessexpensivebutalsolessprestigiouseducation?
Theacademicevidenceismurky.Tostartwiththebasics:
Collegepays.Onaverage,apersonwithanundergraduatedegreenowearnsalmosttwiceasmuchassomeonewithonlyahighschooldiploma,upfrom1.5timesin1975.
Theeconomicliteratureonthepayoffofgraduatingfromanelitecollege,however,asopposedtoanycollege,isfarlessconclusive.SeveralstudiesduringthepastdecadefoundaconnectionbetweenhigherfutureearningsandattendanceatacollegewithhighSATscores.Mostoftheresearchconcludedthatforeach100-pointincreaseintheaverageSATscore,agraduatecouldexpecta3%to7%increaseinlifetimeearnings.
Butthestudiescomparedschools,notpeople.Youwouldexpectgraduatesofselectiveschools--whichattractsuccessfulstudents--tohavesuccessfulcareers.(Itwouldbestunningiftheydidn't.)Whatsuchstudiesdonotmeasureishowanindividual'searningsareaffectedbythechoiceofcollege.IfstudentXgetsinto,say,AmherstandMichiganState,andchoosestogotoMichiganState,willXbeshutoutofAmherst-styleearningpotential?
OtherstudieshavetriedtoanswerthisquestionbylookingatstudentswithsimilarSATscoreswhoattendeddifferentkindsofschools.Researchersfoundthatthosewhowenttothemoreprestigiousschoolsreportedhigherearnings.
ButSATscoresarenoteverything.Admissionsofficesateliteschoolsincludemanyothercriteriaintheirdecisions--grades,extracurricularactivities,recommendations,essays,interviews.Thesefactorsmayrevealabilities,likegoodcommunicationskills,thatarefarmorevaluableintheworkplacethanaperfect1600.Becauseeconomistshavenodataonthesetraits,theytermthem"unobserved."Buttheyarehardlyunimportant.Untilrecently,noonehadtriedtocontrolforunobservedcharacteristicsinmeasuringtheeffectofaneliteeducationonearnings.
ThenAlanKrueger,aneconomistatPrinceton,andStacyBergDale,aresearcherattheAndrewW.MellonFoundation,designedjustsuchastudy.Inawidelypublicizedreport,releasedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearchlastyear,theyfoundnoeconomicadvantageinattendingaselectivecollege.Theirresearchlookedatthe1976freshmanclassat30schools,ranginginselectivity(determinedbyaverageSATscores)fromYaletoDenison.Thecollegesweremostlyprivatebutincludedafewpublicuniversities:
theUniversityofMichigan,Ohio'sMiamiUniversity,PennState,andtheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill.DaleandKruegercomparedtheearningsofstudentswhowereadmittedtothesamecollegesbutmadedifferentchoices.Thisensuredthattheylookedatsimilarindividuals.Inotherwords,becausethestudentshadbeenadmittedtothesameschools,theywouldhavehadequivalentSATscoresand"unobserved"traits.
KruegerandDaleconcludedthatsmart,talentedkidswhoattendedlessselectiveschoolsdidjustaswellintheircareersastheircounterpartsatelitecolleges.Therewasnodifferenceinaverageearnings.ThesametraitsthatmadethestudentsdesirablecandidatesforadmissiontoYale--ambition,intelligence,wit--carriedovertotheworkplace,wheretheywereduly(andcomparably)rewarded,eventhoughtheyhadturneddownaneliteeducation.Kruegersaysthisisbecausethepositivecharacteristicsattributedtoselectivecollegeswereactuallycharacteristicsofthestudents,notoftheschools.TheadvantagesofHarvard,inotherwords,conferfewbenefitsontheclassslacker.RobertZemsky,aneducationprofessorattheUniversityofPennsylvania,whobelievesaprestigiousundergraduatedegreedoespayoff,putsitthisway:
"It'slikethebrassringonamerry-go-round.Ifyougotoahigh-priced,highlyselectiveschool,youhaveabettershotatthebrassring.Butyouhavetograbit."
WhileKruegerandDalefoundthatcollegeselectivitydidnotaffectearnings,itdidmakeasignificantdifferencetothosefrompoorerbackgrounds.A200-pointincreaseintheaverageSATscoreofthecollegeattendedresultedin7%greaterearningsforstudentsfromfamiliesinthelowestfifthofincomedistribution.Kruegerattributesthistotheabilitytonetworkwithacriticalmassofaffluentstudentsandalumni."Thekidfromtheinnercitywon'thavecontactsatGoldmanSachs,"saysKrueger.Childrenfromwealthierbackgroundsaremorelikelytohaveagraspontheupperrungsofthelabormarket.
KruegerandDale'sresearch,whileintriguing,isnotdefinitive.Criticshavequestionedtheirmethodology,thelimitednumberandrangeofschoolsevaluated,andtheirconclusions.EvenKruegerfindsitoddthattheresultsseemtoshowthatwhilethereisnocorrelationbetweencollegeselectivityandfutureincome(exceptforpoorerstudents),themoreacollegecosts,thehighertheearningsofitsgraduates.
CarolineHoxby,aneconomistatHarvardspecializingintheeconomicsofeducation,hasdoneresearchthatchallengestheKrueger-Dalefindings.SheplacedseveralhundredschoolsineightranksbasedontheSATscoresoftheirstudents.Shelookedatstudentswhoenteredthesecollegesin1960,1972,and1982,thenexaminedtheirearningsatage32.HoxbycontrolledforSATscoresbycomparingstudentswithsimilarscoresfromdifferentcolleges;shedidnotcontrolforunobservedcharacteristicsasKruegerandDaletriedto.Althoughshenotesthat"someoftheapparentreturnstograduatingfromamoreselectivecollegemayactuallybeattributabletotheself-selectionofstudentswhohavelowearningspotentialintolesscompetitivecolleges,"shedoesn'tthinkthisexplainsthewholedifferenceinincomebetweengraduatesofeliteandlesselitecolleges.
Using1997-98tuitionfigures,HoxbyconcludedthatastudentwhogaveupafullscholarshipataRankThreeprivatecollege(averageSATs:
90thpercentileinverbal,86thinmath)topayfullpriceataRankOneselectivecollege(averageSATs:
96thpercentileinverbal,93rdinmath)earnedbackthedifferenceincost3.4timesoverhislifetime.ThosewhomovedfrompayingaveragetuitionataRankThreepubliccollegetopayingaveragetuitionataRankOneprivateschoolearnedbackthedifferenceincostmorethan30timesover.Thatremarkablestatisticdemonstratestheveryrealgapbetweenwhathappensinclassroomsat,say,theUniversityofFloridaandMIT.(Hoxbydidnotcomparethedifferenceinmovingfromatoppubliccollegetoatopprivateone.)
Herfindingsarecomplementedbyotherstatisticalevidence.Intheir1995book,TheWinner-Take-AllSociety,economistRobertFrankandpublic-policyprofessorPhilipCookdocumentedtheincreasingconcentrationofthenation'stopstudentsatafewelitecolleges.Theynotedthatin1989fewerthan1%ofthe1.1millionstudentswhotooktheverbalSATscoredabove700.Yet43.8%ofthemgraduatedfromoneofthe33schoolsdesignated"mostcompetitive"byBarron's.Theconcentrationoftalentedstudentshashadapredictableresultonwherecompaniesgotorecruitemployees.FrankfoundthecompaniesthatrecruitatCornell,whereheisaprofessor,madehalftheirrecruitingvisitstothetop25schools.AmongcompaniesFranktermedelite--thosethatconducted70%ormoreoftheirinterviewsatthetop25schools,andwereeitherthelargestfirmintheirindustryorappearedonalistofthebestplacestowork--thenumberswereevenmoreskewed.
Thesefiguresmighthavechangedrecently,asstudentsatelitecollegestestthedot-comworld.(JohnKatzman,founderofthePrincetonReviewco