Greek withdrawal from the Eurozone.docx

Greek withdrawal from the Eurozone.docx

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GreekwithdrawalfromtheEurozone

GreekwithdrawalfromtheEurozone

Writtenby:

MaMingShiWeimeng

Abstract:

Aftertheinternationalfinancialcrisis,theworldeconomywaspresentingthesignsofrecoveryandinthemarkettheconfidenceofinvestorsisboosting.Butatthistime,bytheendof2009,theGreekdebtcrisisbrokeout.TheoutbreakofthedebtcrisisinGreeceisacontinuationanddeepeningoftheinternationalfinancialcrisis.Itisalsofuelingtheconsequencesoftheinternationalratingagenciesandinternationalinvestmentinstitutions.AnotherreasonistheinevitableresultofthestructuralimbalancesoftheGreeknationaleconomicandtheinstitutionalweaknessesoftheeurozone.Asthefirstgameintheeurozonesovereigndebtcrisis,Greekdebtcrisishadasignificantimpact.ThedebtcrisismakesasharpincreaseinGreekdomesticfiscaldeficit,publicdebtandunemployment.Accordingtostatistics,theeconomicrecessioninGreekisnearly20%.Theoutbreakofthecrisisalsomakestheworld'seconomistsandpoliticalscientistsnotedthattheEuropeanCentraldualitycontradictionbetweenmonetarypolicyanddecentralizedfiscalpolicyonceagain.Inthisarticle,notonlytheevolutioncourse,significantimpactsoftheGreekdebtcrisis，butalsothecountermeasurestakenbytheGreekgovernmentandtheinternationalcommunitywillbeintroduced.

1.Greekgovernment-debtcrisisstart

ThemostimmediatecauseofthecrisisisGreece'snewgovernmentfoundGreece'sdebtproblemsfromlastgovernmentconcealed.ThenTheGreekgovernmentannouncedthatthebudgetdeficittoGDPratioisexpectedtoreached12.7%atNovember2009,andoutstandingdebttoGDPratioisexpectedto113%.Thesetwodatafarexceedsthe"StabilityandGrowthPact",whichtheEUstandardssignedin1997.

ConventionprovidesthatthebalanceofthefiscaldeficitanddebttoGDPratioofmaximumlimitof3%and60%respectively.Worse,accordingtodatareleasedbyEurostatshowedthattheGreekbudgetdeficitshareofGDPaccountedfor13.6%,higherthantheGreekgovernmentexpectedalot.Themarketbegantopanic,asharpriseinGreekbondyieldsandCDS（Creditdefaultswap）prices.

OnDecember2009,thetotalGreekgovernmentdebtis300billioneuros.AccordingtoGreece'sfiscalsituationdeterioratedmarkedly,thethreenationallyrecognizedstatisticalratingorganizationshavestartedtoGreece'ssovereigncreditratingdowngrade.

OnDecember8,2009FitchRatings（It'soneofthethreenationallyrecognizedstatisticalratingorganizations）announcedGreece'ssovereigncreditratingfrom"A-"reducedto"BBB+",outlookisnegative,ThisisGreece'ssovereigncreditratingforthefirsttimefelltoA-levellessinthepast10years.

Affectedbythenews,globalstockmarketsfell,theGreekstockmarketfell6percent,theeurofellsharplyagainstthedollar.

Atthesametime,FitchloweredthecreditratingoffiveGreekbanks.

FitchsaidthedowngradedecisionreflectstheconcernsabouttheGreekmedium-termpublicfinances,coupledwiththecredibilityoftheGreekfinancialinstitutionsandthepolicysideofthenegativefactors,itisdifficulttodeterminewhetherGreececangetabalanced,sustainableeconomicrecovery"

OnDecember16,2009evening,Standard&Poor's（AnAmericanfinancialservicescompany）announcedthatGreece'slong-termsovereigncreditratingloweredonestep,from"A-"reducedto"BBB+".

Standard&Poor'swarnedthatiftheGreekgovernmentcannotimprovethefinancialsituationintheshortterm,thereislikelytofurtherreduceGreece'ssovereigncreditrating.

ThisisthesecondtimetheGreekcreditratingdowngradeinaweek.

AnotherratingagencyMoody'shasincludedinthewatchlistGreece,andpossiblycutGreece'screditrating.

Sovereigncreditratingwasloweredfrequently,resultinginasubstantialincreaseinthecostofGreekgovernmentborrowinginthemarket,borrowingmoredifficult.

And2010istheGreekgovernmenttorepaymaturingdebtconcentratedperiod,theGreekgovernmentneedsatleast54billioneurostomeetitsfundingneeds.

Greecefellintoitsworstdebtcrisisandpanicofothereuro-zonecountries.

Bytheendof2009,Greecehasbeeninsolvent,nearlybankrupt,TheGreekdebtcrisisbrokeout.

2.DevelopmentofGreekdebtcrisis

Aftertheendof2009inGreece'ssovereigncreditratingwasloweredbytheinternationalcreditratingagency，GreekgovernmentbondsCDSpriceshavebeenrising，Itwasupto421basispointsinJanuary,2010.AndTheeuroagainsttheU.S.dollarexchangeratefellby8%in10days.

Atthebeginningof2010,theGreekgovernmenthasannouncedthatin2009thebalanceofthedeficitanddebttoGDPratioincreasedto13.6%and115.1%.

Greece'ssovereigndebtcrisishasnotbeeneased,andmoreserious.

OnApril27,2010,thestandard&Poor'sdowngradedGreece'ssovereigncreditratingtojunk,leadingtoariseinyieldsonGreekgovernmentbonds.

Asthesovereigncreditratingisreduced,thecostofraisingcapitaltogetridofthecrisishasbeengreatlyimproved.

RelevanteconomicdatasuggestthattheseverityoftheGreekdebtproblemhasbeenfarexceededmarketexpectations,theEUandtheeurozonegovernmentrealizedthatthesovereigndebtcrisisinGreecehasgraduallyspread.TheEuropeanUniongovernmentdecidedtostarttheGreekrescuemechanisminMay2ndofthesameyear.

GreeceandtheEuropeanUnionandIMFreachedarescueagreementinMay,Greecetoobtainatotalof110billioneurosinloans（Eurozoneinvested80billioneuros,IMFinvested30billioneuros）,

therateis5%.

Asaconditiontoobtainloanassistance,theGreekgovernmentmustbecommittedtothenext3yearsthroughavarietyoffiscalpolicy,tobudgetlose30billioneurosonthebasis,andby2014,thedeficitratedroppedto3%.

TheGreekgovernmentissuedacorrespondingausterityplan,

ThenledtoamajorstrikeinGreeceandthebloodyconflictinMay5,2010

TheGreekdebtcrisishascausedaprofoundimpactonitsnationallife.

AftertheGreekdebtcrisis,investorsbegantopayattentionandconcernabouttheeurozonedebtsituationinothercountries.

AccordingtodatareleasedbyEurostat,Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Italyandothercountriesofthedeficitandpublicdebtarefarmorethantheprescribed"StabilityandGrowthPact",theGreekdebtcrisisbegantospreadtotheeurozone.

May10,EU-27financeministersdecided,jointlywiththeInternationalMonetaryFundissuedatotalof750billioneurosrescueplan,IthopedmighthelpeurozonecountriesintoadebtcrisisandpreventtheGreekdebtcrisisfromspreadingfurtherdiffusion.

ThelargestbailoutinEuropeismadeupof3parts,ofwhich440billioneurosareprovidedbytheeurozonecountriesintheformofguarantees,and60billioneuroswillberaisedbytheEuropeanCommissionfromthefinancialmarkets,andtheremaining250billioneuroswillbeprovidedbytheInternationalMonetaryFund.

June14,2010,oneofthethreeinternationalratingagenciesMoody'sInvestorsServicecutGreece'ssovereigncreditevenlower4,bytheA3leveldroppedtoBa1,Greecebecametheworld'sworstnationalcreditrating.

Moody'ssaidthatalthoughtheeuro-zonecountriesandtheIMFtogethertohelpgetridofthesovereigndebtcrisisinGreece,butGreece'ssovereigndebtoutlookremainsassured.

AstheEUandIMF€110billionfinancialsupportconditions,theGreekgovernmenthadtopursuetightfiscalpolicies,includingwagecuts,increasetaxes,butafterayearofausterity,theeconomicsituationinGreecehasnotbeensignificantlyimproved,cannotrelyontheirowntosolvethefinancingproblem.

UntilMay2011,Greece'sdebtcrisiscontinuedtodeteriorate,inthealreadyacquired110billioneurosofloans,Greecestillneeds22billioneurostodealwiththedebtmaturity.

OnFebruary21,2012,theeurozonefinanceministersmeeting,thesecondroundofGreece's130billionroundofaidprogramssuccessfullyapproved,thecountry'sprivatesectorcreditorshaveagreedtoreducetheirholdingsto53.5%,buttheeurozonefinanceministersdemandedthatGreece'sdebttogrossdomesticproduct（GDP）fellto120.5%by2020.

OnMarch1st,GreeceintheeurozonefinanceministersmeetingwiththeEuropeanfinancialstabilityfund（EFSF）signedanagreementtocompletethedebtrestructuringofGreeceandtomakethecountry'sbankscancontinuetooperateinthisprocesstolaythefoundation,however,the130billioneurozonefinanceministersintheeuroareafinanceministerstoobtainasmoothcompletionofthedebtexchangewillbeissued.

OnApril25,2012,Greececompletedtheplan.TheGreekgovernmentthroughtheprogramtoreducethedebtofabout100billioneuros,thesuccessoftheprogram,butalsotoensurethatGreecereceivedasecondroundofinternationalaidloans,toavoidabreachofcontract.

OnJune2012,thesupportoftheGreekausterityconservativepartyintheparliamentaryelectionvictoryagainsttheausterityoftheleftparty,theGreekpeoplevoteddecidedintheeurozone.

TheGreekfinanceministrysaidinFebruary4,2013thatGreece'sfiscaldeficitin2012wasreducedto6.6%ofGDP,andtheoriginaltargetwascompleted.Inastatement,theTreasurysaidthecountry'sfiscaldeficitin2012fellto12billion900millioneurosfrom19billion700millioneurosin2011,adropof34.6%.In2011,thefiscaldeficitaccountedfor9.4%ofGDP.

3.ThepresentsituationoftheGreekdebtcrisis

AftertheGreekelectionofJanuary2015,theEurogroupgrantedafurtherfour-monthtechnicalextensionofitsbailoutprogrammetoGreece;acceptingthepaymenttermsattachedtoitslasttranchetoberenegotiatedwiththenewGreekgove