阅读与摘要PIW01.docx

阅读与摘要PIW01.docx

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阅读与摘要PIW01

阅读与摘要

2ndTASK

中石化经济技术研究院

2010-11-22

[T201]OpecPreparesForToughStartToNewDecade（A1组必选）

Opecistryingtomentallyprepareitsownmembersandproducersoutsidethecartelforarockystarttothenewdecade.Iftheglobaleconomicrecoverycontinuesatitscurrentslowbutsustainedpace,oilsupplywilloutrundemandinthefirsthalfof2010andOpecproducerswillhavetoreininoutputtobalancethemarket.Anyhiccupintheeconomicrecoverywillleadtoanevenbiggersurplus—afactnotlostonworriedOpecministerswhentheymetinAngolalastmonth.Opec'sownestimatessuggestthatitwouldneedtotrimproductionby400,000barrelsperdayfromNovemberlevelstopreventstocksfrombuildingnextyear,althoughPfWcalculatesthatitmightneedtocutcloserto800,000b/d.AttheDec.22meetinginLuanda,Opecdecidedtokeeptheofficialtargetforits11memberswithaquota—Iraqhasnone—at24.845millionb/d,butactualoutputissome2.2millionb/dhigher,PIWestimates.TherolloveroftheofficialceilingthusleavesOpecroomtotightensupplybyimprovingcompliancewithouthavingtomakeanychangetoformaloutputtargets.

Opecministersrepeatedwhatislikelytobeafutilepleafornon-Opecproducerstohelpdealwiththecrudesupplyoverhang,acknowledginginthecommuniquefromlastmonth'smeetingthattheycannotbeartheburdenofstabilizingthemarketontheirown.Butifnon-Opecproducerswerenotpreparedtohelpwhenoilpriceswereinthelow$30sperbarrelearlylastyear,whywouldtheyhelpnow,whenpricesareabove$70/bbl?

Afterall,pricesaround$75/bblweredescribedas"excellent"and"perfect"inLuandabySaudiArabianOilMinisterAliNaimi,andOpec,despiteitscautiouseconomicoutlook,believespricesarelikelytoremainstable.AngolanOilMinisterJoseMariaBotelhodeVasconcelos,whowasalsoOpecpresidentduring2009,didshowsomefrustrationandurgedsolidarity:

"Opeccutsandothersstepintofillthegap."Buthealsoconcededthathisowncountrywasproducingoverquota—justlikeNigeria,IranandVenezuela.Andeventhoughcompliancehasslippedsharplyinrecentmonths,Opec'saverage2009outputisexpectedtocomeinatamassive2.7millionb/dbelowthatof2008（PIWDec.21,p2）.

ThedrawdownincrudestockshasbeenhaltedbydeterioratingOpeccomplianceandrisingnon-Opecoutput.Butfornow,Opec'sbiggerworryisagrowingoverhangintheproductsmarket,overwhichithaslesscontrol.Massivevolumesofmiddledistillates,mostlydiesel,havebuiltupinonshoretanksandinvesselsatsea（PIWDec.14,p3）."Chancesarethatrefinerieswillhavetocutbackrunsfurthertodrawdownthesestocks,andthatmeanslesscrudewillbeneeded,"onecrudetradernoted.Ifthathappens,Opecwillneedtodeliveradrasticimprovementincompliance.Willthathappen?

"Everybodywill,hopefully,complywithwhattheyagreedto,"Naimisaid."Andsofar,thingsareholding."

Opecmightbeabletorideoutthecurrentstorm,butnewonesarebrewing.Iraq,forone,hasmassiveexpansionplansthatcouldseeitsoutputcapacityrisefrom2.5millionb/dto11millionb/dby2017.Itwilltakeanequallyrapidexpansionindemandtoabsorballthisnewoil.OpecofficialsanddelegatesdoubtIraqcandeliverthisincreaseincapacityatthepaceitcurrentlyhasinmind—Baghdadseesthefirstnewproductionfromitstworecentlicensingroundscomingonlinein2011,butOpecSecretaryGeneralAbdullahal-Badrisaidatimeframeoffivetosixyearswouldbemorerealistic（PIWDec.21,p1）.OtherOpecdelegatesalsoarguedthatitwouldtakeIraqseveralyearstoputinplacethepipelines,terminals,portexpansionsandotherinfrastructuretohandlethisnewproductioncapacity.

[T202]CopenhagenADisappointmentForOilIndustry

Itwouldbehardtofindanygroupentirelysatisfiedwiththedealthatemergedfromlastmonth'sUNclimatechangesummitinCopenhagen,buttheoilindustryhasmorereasontofeeldisappointedthanmost.Monthsofhypeandtwoweeksoffranticandoftenchaoticnegotiationsproducedathree-pagedocumentthatfailedtogivetheindustrythecertaintyoverfutureclimatechangelegislationthatitwaslookingfor,andindustryofficialswerecriticalofboththelackofalegallybindingagreementandthelackofconsultationwiththeenergyindustryoverhowfuturereductionsingreenhousegasemissionswillbeachieved.Theso-called"CopenhagenAccord,"tabledonthefinaldayoftheconferencebyacollectionofcountriesincludingtheUSandChina,outlinedtheneedforactionandrecognizedthatgovernmentsmustlimitglobaltemperaturerisestolessthan2°C.Italsoprovided$30billionperyearoffundingforpoorcountriestoadapttoclimatechangefrom2010-12,and$100billionannuallyby2020.Therewerenodetailsofemissioncutsfromspecificcountries,althoughthedocumentdidsetaJan.31,2010deadlineforallindustrializednationstooutlinetheirtargets.

OilcompanieshadbeenhopingthatCopenhagenwouldlaythefoundationsforaclear,consistentregulatoryframework,buttheeventualagreementfellalongwayshortofthoseexpectations.Itwasunclearhowthepoliticalwilltowardsreducingcarbondioxide（CO2）emissionsondisplayatthesummitwouldtranslateintoconcreteaction,RoyalDutchShellsaid,whileNorway'sStatoil,whichhadoneofthelargestoilcompanydelegations,calledongovernmentstodomoreandcommitto"greatergoals"（PIWNov.16,p3）.OilcompaniesgenerallykeptalowprofileinCopenhagen,butmostofthemajorenergyfirmsdidhaverepresentativesinattendance,usuallyagroupofclimatechangeorgovernmentpolicyadvisorsattachedtoamajorbusinesslobbygroup.SeniorlevelexecutivespresentincludedStatoilChiefExecutiveHelgeLund,formerShellbossJeroenvanderVeerandOpecSecretaryGeneralAbdullahal-Badri.

Thelackofafirmdealprolongsthecurrentperiodofuncertaintyandwillmakethechangesnecessarytomeetemissionsreductiontargetsmoredifficultandcostlyforallconcerned.Thedelaymayhavebeenunavoidableduetotheinterminableargumentsbetweendevelopedanddevelopingnations,butitisalsolikelytobeexpensive—theInternationalEnergyAgencyestimatesthateveryyearofdelayinagreeingabindingdealaddsanextra$500billiontothecostofmeetingemissionstargets.Thedisappointingoutcomemayalsoimpactpeople'sfaithintheabilityofgovernment-ledinitiativestoreduceCO2emissions,theAmericanPetroleumInstitutesaidafterthesummitclosed.Asthesummitprogressed,delegatesbegantoswitchtheiremphasisfromgettingadealdoneatCopenhagentothenextsummitsscheduledforMayinBonnandDecemberinMexicoCity.ButtherearefewsignsthattheargumentsthatdoggedtheCopenhagentalkswillberesolvedbythen.

Onamorepositivenote,oilcompanyofficialssaidthatthefactthatthedealemergedfromdirectnegotiationsandeventualagreementbetweentheUSandChina,theworld'stwolargestemitters,wasasmallstepintherightdirection.Butgovernmentsstillfaceanuphillbattletostrikeadealthisyear,Shellnotedafterthesummit'sclose:

"Muchneedstobedonein2010."

[T203]BrazilLooksForwardToYearOfDelivery（B1组必选）

Braziliansliketojokethattheirhomelandisthecountryofthefuture—andalwayswillbe.Brazil'soilindustry,however,doesn'treallyconformtothatnationalstereotype,andin2010shouldstartfulfillingsomeofitsenormouspotential.PilotproductionwillbeginthisyearfromthegiantTupifield,thefirstofthecountry'shugeoffshoresubsaltdiscoveries,whileoutputwillincreaseatexistingfieldsintheCamposBasin,Brazil'smainproducingregion,liftingoiloutputto2.17millionbarrelsperdayin2010fromlastyear'saverageof1.96millionb/d,accordingtoPIWestimates（PIWDec.7,p5）.TheCamposBasinwillseeseverallargefieldsstartingupinthenextyearortwo.State-controlledPetrobraswillincreaseoutputfromfloatingproduction,storageandoffloadingvesselsontheRoncador,AlbacoraandMarlimsatellitefields,whileChevronwillrampupproductionfromitsFradefield,whichissettoreachpeakoutputof90,000barrelsofoilequivalentperdayin2011.Norway'sStatoilstartsdevelopmentdrillingonitsPeregrinofieldinthesecondhalfofthisyear,aimingtostartproductioninearly2011andhitpeakoutputof100,000b/din2012.Inthesubsaltzone,Petrobrasplanstostartpilotproductionof100,000b/dfromTupiinOctober.TheGuaradiscoveryisthecompany'snexttarget,withanextendedwelltestdueinMayandfirstoutputin2013.PetrobrasisalsoconsideringanextendedwelltestthisyearinTupiNordesteorCarioca.

ButwhiletherewillbeplentyofdrillinganddevelopmentactivityintheBrazilianupstreamthisyear,thereareunlikelytobemanynewopportunitiesforinternationaloilcompanies（IOCs）.Thegovernmentwillholdits11thannualbidroundinmid-2010,buttheblocksonofferwillbelimitedtoonshoreandshallowwaterareas.NoblockswithsubsaltpotentialcanbeoffereduntilthegovernmenthasapprovedmajoroilreformscurrentlymakingtheirwaythroughCongress（PIWMar.2,p3）.Politicalanalystsexpectthelowerhousetoapprovethereformsearlythisyear,butatrickierbattleintheSenatecoulddelayapprovalforseveralmonths（PIWAug.17,p1）.Thatwouldleavethenationaloilregulator,theANH,withlittletimetoorganizeasubsaltbidroundbeforetheendoftheyear.

Awayfromthesubsalt,2010isalsoshapinguptobeacriticalyearintermsofchangesinhowbothBrazilandthecountry'soilsectorarerun.PresidentialelectionsarescheduledforOctober,andwithPresidentLuizInaci