FinancialanalysisontheprofitabilityofstateownedcommercialbanksinChina英.docx

FinancialanalysisontheprofitabilityofstateownedcommercialbanksinChina英.docx

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FinancialanalysisontheprofitabilityofstateownedcommercialbanksinChina英

FinancialanalysisontheprofitabilityofstateownedcommercialbanksinChina

1thegeneralsituationofprofitabilityofstateownedcommercialbanksinChina

Sincetheendof2003tostartourcountrystate-ownedcommercialbankjoint-stockreform,untilnowhasmadesomeachievements,thefourmajorstate-ownedcommercialbanksoperatingperformancecontinuestoimprove,profitabilityincreasedyearbyyear,andtheprofitlevelisalsograduallyincrease.

In2005,thefourbank'stotalassetsthanthe2003growth42434.98billionyuan,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof21217.49billionyuan,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof12.56%;totalloansthanthe2003growth17893.79billionyuan,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof8946,9billionyuan,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof9.7%.Butthefourlinesinthedifferentcharacteristicsofthebusinessdevelopmentstrategy,theloangrowthrateshowedabigdifference.In2004,industry,constructionoftwolinesofloangrowthrespectively9.21%and11.85%.Littledifference;andagriculture,intwolines,butwere7.83%and14.18%,adifferenceofnearlydoubled.In2005,industryandtrade,intwolinesofgrowthinthefourthrowisthelowest5.85%and4.23%,whichandtwolinesinrecentyearstofocusonthetransformationofthedevelopmentpatternofbusiness,operatingincomestructuretransformation,thecreditstructureoptimizationandassetqualityimprovement,intendstocontrolcreditbusinessoftoofastincreaseoflong.Inthesameyear,ABCgrowthalthoughisstillrelativelylarge,upto9.24%,butfellintherangeisalsogreat,adecreaseofnearly5percentagepoints;andCCB'sloangrowthnotonlyhigherthanthoseoftheindustryandtrade,intwolines,butalsoslightlyhigherthanthatoftheagriculturalBankofChina,fouronlyincreasedbymorethan10%and10.2%.Themainreasonmayislistedafterprofitpressureincrease,therelativesurpluscapitalandtraditionalscaleexpansionofinertia,topromotetherapidgrowthofcreditbusiness.

Inprofitabilityinpretaxprofittargets,inadditiontothebankin2005thanin2004,BankofChinain2004comparedto2003weredecreased7.1%and10.36%,therestoftheyearandeachoftheotherrowshasvaryingdegreesofgrowth,ingeneralshowprofitabilityrosesteadilyimprove;capitalprofitmarginandassetprofitrate,listedinHongKong,CCBhasbeensignificantlyhigherthanachip,2005and2004respectively1.11%and1.31%and21.59%,25.86%,comparedtotheaveragelevelofbanksinEuropeandtheUS.2005Bankofassetprofitrateof0.72%,higherthanICBC0.59%,butinthesameyear,ICBC'scapitalprofitratefor13.30%,slightlyhigherthanthebank.62.53%and66.15%riseinthecostincomeratioofthecountriesintheworldtomeasurecommercialbankprofitabilityandthelevelofcompetitionisthemostimportantindex（businesscost/revenue）,onlyCCBa2005,2004yearstwoyearisgreatlydecreased;theBankofChinain2004slightly,2005isslightlydecreased;ICBC2004althoughreachedasubstantialdecline,butin2005hasgreatlyincreased;onthewhole,inadditiontothebankin2005and2004years,respectively,inthehighoperation,industryandtrade,andbuiltthreelinesofcostincomeratiobasicallyareintheCBRCrequirementsofmonitoringrange（35%to45%）.Asamatterofsurvivalanddevelopmentofcommercialbank'scapitaladequacyratioindex,industryandtrade,andbuiltthreelinesareconsiderablymorethan8%minimumstandards,CCBevento13.57%enteredtheranksofworld-classbanks.

2China'sstate-ownedcommercialbankstoenhanceprofitabilityintheexistingproblems

AfterthefullliberalizationofChina'sfinancialandwarlordschasethedeer,forcingstate-ownedcommercialbanksofourcountrymustassoonaspossibletoenhanceprofitability,inordertoenhancetheircompetitivenessandsustainabledevelopmentcapacity.However,China'sstate-ownedcommercialbankstoenhanceprofitability,therearestillmanyproblems.

Operatingincomestructuretransformationisdifficulttoshort-termeffect

Bankprofitscanberoughlydividedintotwo,oneisinterestincome;thetwoisnoninterestincome.China'scommercialbanksoperatingincomestructureasawholeisestablishedonthebasisofinterestincome,atpresent,interestincomeaverageaboutaccountsforindustry,agriculture,inconstructionoffourlinesoftotalincomeofabout90%.Frominthelongitudinalview,theprofitlevelofState-ownedCommercialBankofourcountrydependonthedegreeofinterestincomeonthewholeisincreasingovertheyears,theresultsshowthattheyearsofoperatingincomesingledeformityofthesituationhasnotchanged,butslightlyincreased,whichinrecentyearstoworkers,farmers,constructionoffourlinesofincomestructurechangetrendcanbeproved.

In2005,industryandtrade,andbuiltthreelinesofnoninterestincomeaccountedforanaverageofmorethan9,49%;amongthem,BankofChinabecauseofpossessingtheadvantageintheinternationalsettlement,isuniquelyaccountedfortheratioofmorethan10%ofthebank,13.47%.Thisbusinessofforeigncommercialbankswithahighdegreeofdiversification,theproportionofnoninterestincomegapbetween40%-60%istoobig.Reportshowsthatnoninterestincomeaccountedfor70%ofitstotalrevenueinCitigroupintheUnitedStatesandBritain'sBarclaysBankashighas73%,fourMizuho,HSBC,theAmericasandtheStandardCharteredBanknoninterestincomeaccountedforanaverageof41.17%,evenChina'sTaiwanandHongKongareaandthesurroundingcountriesinSoutheastAsiahasreachedthelevelof30%.

Duetoourcountrycommercialbanknoninterestincomebusinessstartedrelativelylate,andatthebeginningofthesubjecttostrictseparatedoperationlimit,manyareascannotbetouched,thespaceforthedevelopmentofsmall,foreigncommercialbanksoperatinginmanynoninterestincomebusiness,fordomesticcommercialbanksisintherestrictedarea,theproblemverydifficultintheshorttermarefundamentalsolution.Atthesametime,ourcountrycommercialbanknoninterestincomebusinessatthebeginningofthedevelopment,ofteninformofprobonoservicesappear,inordertoconsolidatethetraditionalbusiness,sobusinessscopeisnarrow,varietiesofasingle,lowrateofreturn.Inrecentyears,ourcountrycommercialbanknoninterestincomebusinessvarieties,despitetheexpansion,butthespeedisveryslow,theproportionisverysmall.Alsoourcountrycommercialbanknoninterestincomebusinessindependentchargeofweak,requiredbymanyoftherelevantadministrativedepartmentforexaminationandapproval,theservicechargestandarduncertaintyisgreatlyincreased,thedevelopmentbusinessenthusiasmwasinhibited,whichrestrictstheourcountrycommercialbanknoninterestincomebusinessdevelopment.

Therealityisthatdepositinterestincomeisstillfourlinesofthemainsourceofrevenue,especiallyafterwork,tobuildthreelistedprofitpressures,capitaladequacystandardsloanswillgenerallystrongerbecomemaincausestodrivetherapidgrowthofthescale,makethetraditionalbusinesstodevelopwaytemporarilydifficulttochange.

Theimprovementoftheprofitlevelisreflectedinthepromotionofinvestmentreturn.Accordingtoindustryandtrade,andbuiltthree2006interimreportsdisclosureoffinancialdata,thefirsthalfof2006,threelinesoftraditionalassetscaleexpansionofbusinessdevelopment,morethantheprofitgrowth,assetandequitygrowthfasterthanthegrowthrateofnetprofit,profitlevelsarethemostimportanttwoindexreturnonassets,returnonequityrateaffectedareinrelativelylowlevel,whichrestrictstheimprovementofthelevelofreturnoninvestment.Amongthem.AndCCBcreditassetgrowthwassignificantlyhigherthanthatofindustryandtrade,intworows,theROA,R0Eofdeclinesignificantly,respectivelyreducethe0.34percentagepoints,4.49percentagepoints.

AccordingtotheChinaBankingRegulatoryCommissionwillbethelateststatisticaldatain2006October24F1releasedshowedcloseto92%ofthetotalnon-performingloansofChina'smajorcommercialbanksnon-performingloansofthefourstate-ownedcommercialbanks,non-performingloanratiohigheroveralllevelof1.7percentagepoints,if12joint-stockbanksandphaseratio,adifferenceofmorethan6.4percentagepoints.Currentourlong-termloansupto10.9trillionyuan,withthefutureoftheeconomicandfinancialperformancevariablesincrease,thesituationisbecomingmoreandmorecomplicated,especiallythepotentialrisksofthepartoftheindustryboomdegreeofsensitivity,therewillbeanumberofloansturnedbad.Itisbasedontheexpectationsforthefuture,theCBRCmandatorybanksinfinancialrestructuringcompletedthatyear,non-performingloanprovisioncoverageratioshouldbenotlessthan60%,afterincreasingtheproportionforupto100%in5years.Visible,thestate-ownedcommercialbanksinourcountryisstillrelativelyfragileassetqualitybased,therearestillmorebadrisks,coupledwithcaretakerbehindProprovisionburdenisheavy,areintowingwiththeenhancementofprofitability,whichrestrictstheimprovementofprofitability.

Corporategovernancestructurehasnotbeentrulyimplementedinplace.Corporategovernancestructureconstructionstrictly,isoneofthebiggestproblemsfacingthereformofstate-ownedcommercialbanksinchina.Thefourmajorstate-ownedcommercialbanksintheintroductionandimplementationofmoderncorporategovernancestructure,operationalmechanismcomparedwiththepastcanbesaidissome