西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究.docx

西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究.docx

《西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究.docx（6页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究

西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究

硕士学位论文西安市空气污染物浓度统计特征及其气象影响研究姜雪导师姓名职称邓顺熙教授申请学位级别硕士学科专业名称环境工程论文提交日期2012年6月1日论文答辩日期2012年6月6日学位授予单位长安大学分类号:

X510710-2009129089ThestatisticalcharacteristicsofairpollutantconcentrationsandtherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalelementsandpollutantsinXi’anADissertationSubmittedfortheDegreeofMasterCandidate：

JiangXueSupervisor：

Prof.DengShunxiChang’anUniversity,Xi’an,ChinaI摘要近年来，城市空气污染日益严重，并已成为公众广泛关注的环境问题之一。

城市空气污染物浓度主要受气象因素、污染源的类型及分布状况的影响，不同地区污染物浓度的统计特征不同。

因此，深入分析城市空气污染浓度的统计特征，讨论气象要素与污染物浓度之间的关系，对研究城市空气污染问题及其防治措施具有十分重要的意义。

本文利用2011年西安市三种常规空气污染物浓度的时间序列数据，运用统计学方法研究了西安市空气污染物浓度的统计特征，并在此基础上利用同步地面和高空气象资料分析探讨了污染浓度与各气象要素之间的关系，得出主要结论如下：

1．通过对西安市2011年SO2、NO2和PM10三种污染物浓度时间序列的统计分析，得出3种空气污染物的小时浓度均呈现明显的季节变化和日变化特征。

冬季污染物浓度较高，春季次之，秋季和夏季浓度较低。

PM10和NO2小时浓度的日变化趋势均为双峰双谷型，污染浓度早晨高于傍晚；SO2小时浓度的日变化曲线呈单峰型，中午浓度最大。

2．由于受污染源的类型、分布状况及局地风向和风速的影响，西安市PM10、SO2和NO2浓度具有一定的空间分布特征：

市人民体育场和临潼区PM10浓度最高，草滩最低；SO2浓度较高的监测点为市人民体育场和高压开关厂，其余监测点相差不大；NO2小时浓度经开区最高，小寨次高，兴庆小区最低。

3．选取国际上常用的4种统计分布模型，分析研究了不同季节及典型空气质量状况下各污染物小时浓度的最佳分布模型、相关参数及其浓度的主要分布段，并用KS检验、AD检验和卡方检验3种拟合优度检验方法分别评价了拟合结果。

4．采用线性相关分析法研究了各气象要素对西安市空气污染物浓度的影响。

结果表明：

风速、温度和混合层高度均与污染物浓度呈负相关，而气压和大气稳定度与污染物浓度呈正相关。

5．分析研究了“最优”和“最差”空气质量状况下的气象条件及气象要素的组合特点，得出：

降水量较大且为连续降水时，空气质量较好；而无降水、混合层高度较低、风速小且静风频率高时，易造成严重空气污染。

风速太大（大于一定阈值）时也会引起颗粒物污染。

关键字：

空气污染物浓度、统计特征、气象要素、西安IIAbstractInrecentyears,urbanairpollutionisincreasinglyserious,andhasbecomeoneoftheenvironmentalissueswhichhasarousedthepublicwidelyconcern.Urbanairpollutantconcentrationsaremainlyaffectedbymeteorology,thetypeanddistributionofpollutionsources.Thestatisticalcharacteristicofpollutantconcentrationsisaspecialcaseindifferentarea.Therefore,toanalyzethestatisticalcharacteristicsofurbanairpollutantconcentrationsanddiscusstherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalelementsandpollutantsissignificantforresearchingurbanairpollutionproblemsanddevelopingeffectivemitigationstrategies.Inthisdissertation,thetimeseriesdataofthreeconventionalairpollutant（i.e.SO2,NO2andPM10）concentrationsmonitoredinXi'anin2011weretaken.Thepurposeofthispaperistoinvestigatethestatisticalcharacteristicsofpollutantconcentrationswiththestatisticalmethods.Onthatbasis,thesynchronousmeteorologicaldatawereusedtoanalyzetherelationshipsbetweenairpollutionconcentrationsandmeteorologicalfactors.Themainconclusionsareasfollows.1.TheresultsofanalyzingtheobservedconcentrationsofSO2,NO2andPM10showedthatthehourlyconcentrationsofthreeairpollutantshaveobviousseasonalanddiurnalvariation.Theairpollutantconcentrationsarealwayshighinwinterfollowedbyinspring,andlowerconcentrationsinXi'anareobservedinautumnandsummer.ThediurnalvariationcurvesofPM10andNO2concentrationsareallbimodalwithhighconcentrationinmorningandlowinevening.But,thediurnalvariationofSO2concentrationshowsasinglepeakwhichalwaysappearsatnoon.2.Duetotheimpactofpollutionsourcesandlocalwind（directionandspeed）,theconcentrationsofPM10,SO2andNO2inXi'anhavesomespatialdistributionproperties.ThehighestPM10concentrationsareshownintheMunicipalPeople'sStadiumandLinTongdistrict,andthelowestinCaoTan.TheconcentrationofSO2isthehighestintheMunicipalPeople'sStadiumandHigh-VoltageSwitchgearFactorybutnearinothermonitoringsites.TheNO2concentrationofJingKaidistrictismaximumwhiletheXingQingdistrictisminimum.III3.Fourcommonlyusedstatisticaldistributionmodelswereadoptedtoresearchtheoptimaldistributionofairpollutantconcentrationsindifferentseasonsandtypicalairqualityconditions,alsothemainparametersofthebestdistributions.Andusingthreegoodness-of-fitteststodeterminetheappropriatestatisticaldistributionmodelofairpollutantconcentrations,includingKS,ADandChi-squaredtest,respectively.4.TheinfluenceofmeteorologicalelementsontheairpollutantsconcentrationinXi'anwasstudiedusinglinearcorrelationanalysismethod.Theresultsindicatedthatwindspeed,temperatureandmixedlayerdepthallshownegativecorrelationwithpollutionconcentrations,whileairpressureandatmosphericstabilityarepositivelycorrelatedwiththeconcentrationsofpollutants.5.Thepaperanalyzedanddiscussedthemeteorologicalconditionsonsituationsofthe“best”and“worst”airquality.Itisconcludedthatairqualityisbetterwhenthereisheavyandcontinuousprecipitation.Whileseriousairpollutionwillappeareasilywhenthereisnoprecipitationwiththelowermixedlayerandhigheroccurenceofcalmwind.Besides,windspeedistoolarge（morethanacertainthreshold）canalsocauseparticulatepollution.Keywords:

airpollutantconcentrations;statisticalcharacteristics;meteorologicalelements;Xi'anIV目录第一章绪论............................................................................................................................11.1研究背景......................................................................................................................11.2研究目的和意义..........................................................................................................11.3国内外研究现状..........................................................................................................21.3.1空气污染物浓度统计特征的研究现状............................................................21.3.2空气污染物浓度与气象因素的关系................................................................51.4研究内容......................................................................................................................7第二章西安市环境概况........................................................................................................92.1自然环境概况..............................................................................................................92.1.1地理位置............................................................................................................92.1.2地形地貌............................................................................................................92.1.3气候水文............................................................................................................92.2社会环境概况............................................................................................................102.2.1人口与经济......................................................................................................102.2.2能源消耗..........................................................................................................102.2.3城市交通...........................................................................................................112.2.4历史文化与旅游...............................................................................................112.3环境空气质量状况.....................................................................................................11第三章研究与分析方法......................................................................................................133.1数据资料及统计分析说明........................................................................................133.1.1数据资料..........................................................................................................133.1.2统计分析说明..................................................................................................143.2空气污染物浓度分布模型........................................................................................153.3拟合优度检验............................................................................................................173.3.1Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计量（KS检验）..................................................173.3.2Anderson-Darling统计量（AD检验）........................................................183.3.3卡方检验..........................................................................................................183.4分布参数估计............................................................................................................183.5相关系数检验法........................................................................................................193.5本章小结....................................................................................................................19V第四章西安市空气污染物浓度的统计特征......................................................................204.1空气污染物浓度的时空分布特征............................................................................204.1.1常规空气污染物浓度时间变化特征..............................................................204.1.2PM10、SO2和NO2浓度空间分布特征..........................................................274.2空气污染物浓度的最佳分布模型及参数估计........................................................314.2.1不同季节污染物小时浓度最佳分布模型及参数估计..................................314.2.2典型空气质量状况下污染物小时浓度最佳分布模型及参数估计..............414.3本章小结....................................................................................................................46第五章空气污染物浓度与气象因素之间的关系..............................................................475.1空气污染物浓度与风速、风向及气压之间的关系................................................475.1.1污染物浓度与风速、风向的关系..................................................................475.1.2污染物浓度与气压的关系..............................................................................505.2空气污染物浓度与温度、大气稳定度之间的关系................................................535.2.1污染物浓度与温度的关系..............................................................................535.2.2污染物浓度与大气稳定度的关系..................................................................555.3空气污染物浓度与混合层高度之间的关系............................................................565.4