欧盟扩展后的产业结构和产业定位外文翻译.docx

欧盟扩展后的产业结构和产业定位外文翻译.docx

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欧盟扩展后的产业结构和产业定位外文翻译

中文3050字

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目：

IndustrialStructureandIndustryLocationinanEnlargedEurope

出处：

SwedishInstituteforEuropeanPolicyStudies,2003.

作者：

KarolinaEkholm

原文：

IndustrialStructureandIndustryLocationinanEnlargedEurope

Effectsonindustrialstructure

Increasedtradegeneratesscopeforincreasedspecializationbothbetweenandwithinindustries.ThetendencyfortheaccessioncountriesinCEEtobespecializedinindustriessuchastextilesandapparelcanbeseenasreflectingcomparativeadvantagesinlabourintensiveindustries.Withincreasedtrade,suchinter-industryspecializationpatternsarelikelytobereinforced.Atthesametime,wewouldexpectincreasedtradetoalsoleadtoincreasedspecializationinactivitieswithinindustriesthatreflectthecountries’comparativeadvantages.

Whentheentireprocessofproducingafinalgoodinvolvesseveraldifferentactivities,suchasconductingresearchanddevelopment,producingintermediateinputs,andassembleinputsintofinalproducts,theremaybebenefitsfromlocatingthesedifferentactivitiesindifferentcountries.Assemblyactivitiesaretypicallyrelativelylabourintensive,anditmaythereforebeadvantageousforafir-mtocarryoutsuchactivitiesincountriesinwhichlabourischeap.Similarly,theproductionoflabourintensiveintermediateinputswillbeproducedmorecheaplyinlow-wagecountries,andthereforeitmaybeadvantageousforafirmtooutsourcethisactivitytoaforeignfirmor,possibly,tocarryouttheactivityinaforeignsubsidiary.IthasbeenestimatedthatabouthalfoftheincreaseintradebetweentheOECDcountriesthelastcoupleofdecadesisrelatedtothistypeoffragmentationofproduction.

TheevidenceonthebilateralpatternoftradeandFDIsuggeststhatproductionnetworksofthiskindtypicallyinvolvecountrieslocatedingeographicalproximitytooneanother.So-calledgravityanalysesoftradeshowthat,allelsebeingequal,countriestrademorewithcountrieslocatedclosebythanwithcountrieslocatedfaraway.SimilartypeofanalysescarriedoutforFDIrevealthesametypeofpattern:

allelsebeingequal,countriesinvestmoreincountrieslocatedclosebythanincountieslocatedfaraway（e.g.Ekholm,1998,ShatzandVenables,2000）.ThismeansthatitseemslikelythattheBalticStatesandPolandcouldbeprimetargetsforfirmsbasedinSwedenandFinlandlookingforlow-wagesitesforpartoftheirproductionprocesses.CountriessuchasGermanyandAustriamaybemorepronetoinvestincountriessuchastheCzechRepublicandHungary.KaminskiandSmarzynska（2001）provideevidencethatFDIinflowsinPolandhavecontributedtoanincreasedparticipationinthesetypesofglobalproductionanddistributionnetworks.

ItseemsreasonabletoexpectthatincreasedtradebetweenSwedenandtheaccessioncountriesisgoingtocontributetoafurtherspecializationinskillandknowledgeintensiveindustriesandsegmentsofindustriesandafurthermovementawayfromproductioninlabourintensiveindustriesandsegmentsofindustries.WhichregionsinSwedenarelikelytobethemostaffectedbythis?

ThepreviouslymentionedreportontheeffectofEasternenlargementontheSwedisheconomyfromaregionalperspective（Eliassonetal.,1998）showsthatSouthernandCentralSwedenhadlargeemploymentsharesinlabourintensiveindustryin1995.Inparticular,thiswastrueforregionslocatedinSmalandandBergslagen.Thereportalsoarguedthatsmallregionstendtobemorespecializedinlabourintensiveindustriesthanlargeregions,resultinginapatternwheresomesmallregionsareverydependentonlabourintensiveindustriesforlocalemployment.Theoppositepatternisfoundforknowledgeandresearchintensiveindustries.Theseindustriesaretypicallyfoundinrelativelylargeregions,suchasregionsclosetothemajorcitiesStockholmandGothenburgandtotheuniversitytownsUppsala,Lund,andLinkoping.

Anotherrelevantquestioniswhetheraccessionisgoingtoaffectfirmsdifferentlydependingontheirsize.Itmaybeeasierforlargefirmstoexploittheopportunitiesofimprovedaccesstotheaccessioncountries’marketsandofoutsourcinglabourintensivestagesofproduction.Smallandmedium-sizedenterprises（SMES）mayfinditmoredifficulttoreapthebenefitsofaccession,beingaffectedmainlythroughincreasedcompetitionfromproducersinCEE.AstudybytheRheinisch-WestfalischesInstitutefurWirtschaftsforschung（RWI,2000）concludedthatSMESintheEUwouldnotbeaffectedstronglybyenlargement,exceptpossiblymedium-sizedfirmslocatedinregionsborderingtheaccessioncountries.

Itisapparentthatcomparedtomanyothercountries,arelativelylargeshareofthepopulationinmanyofthecountriesinCEEhavelongformaleducations.Inthisrespect,thesecountrieshavepotentiallycomparativeadvantagesinskill-intensiveproduction.However,astheprevioussectionhasshown,atpresenttheCEEcountriesappeartobenomoreskillabundantthantheSouthernEuropeancountries.Moreover,thetransitionprocessledinitiallytoadramaticfallinemploymentinseveraloftheaccessioncountries（seeCommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities,2003）.Evenifemploymentlevelshaverecoveredsomewhat,unemploymentisstillrelativelyhigh.Highlevelsofunemploymentshouldputacaponwageincreases,keepinglabourcostsrelativelylow.Thus,intheforeseeablefuture,itseemsunlikelythatincreasedtradewoulddrivespecializationawayfromindustriesandsegmentsofindustriesthatareintensiveinlow-skilledlabourintheCEEcountries.

Anissuerelatedtotheeffectsoftradeintegrationonpatternsofspecializationistheeffectoftradeintegrationonfirmandindustrylocation.Inindustriescharacterizedbyincreasingreturnstoscaleitmaybeadvantageousforfirmstolocateinregionswithgoodmarketaccess.Thereasonforthisisthatiftradeiscostlyandthefirmwantstoderiveeconomiesofscalebyconcentratingproductioninasingleproductionunit,totaltradecostswillbeminimizedifthefirmlocatesitssingleplantinthemarketwithbestaccesstoconsumers.Regionswithgoodmarketaccesstendtoberegionswithlargedomesticmarketsand/oracentrallocationvis-à-visotherregionswithlargedomesticmarkets.Thus,inindustrieswithincreasingreturnstoscalewewouldexpectatendencyforfirmstoclusterincoreregionsandatendencyforperipheralregionstobeatadisadvantageinproducingsuchgoods.

Itisnotcompletelyclearhowtradeintegrationintheformofaloweringoftradecostsislikelytoaffectindustriallocation.Inorderforthefirmtogainfromlocatingwheremarketaccessisgood,tradehastobecostly.Ontheotherhand,iftradecostsareveryhigh,firmswillonlyselltodomesticconsumersandthenahighdegreeoflocalcompetitionwillbeafactorthatmightleadfirmstostayawayfromcoreregions,sincetheseregionshavenotonlyalargenumberofconsumersbutalsoalargenumberofproducers.Thetheoreticalliteratureontradeintegrationandindustriallocationsuggeststhatitisprimarilyatintermediatelevelsoftradecoststhattheattractionofcoreregionsisstrong（seee.g.Fujita,Krugman,andVenables,1999）.Aconsequenceofthisattractionisatendencyforrealwagestobehigherinthecorethanintheperiphery.LowerrealwagesintheaccessioncountriesaswellasinacountrysuchasSwedencomparedtotheEuropeancoremightthussimplyreflectalessadvantageousgeographicallocation,andmightbeneededinordertoinducefirmstoremainintheregion.

Noteveryindustryislikelytobestronglyaffectedbythebenefitsofhavinggoodmarketaccess.Itiscrucialthattheeconomiesofscalearesuchthatthefirmchoosestocarryoutitsoperationsinoneorafewplants.Insomeindustries,economiesofscaleatplantlevelarerelativelyweakandfirmstypicallyoperatemanyplantsindifferentlocations.Moreover,marketaccessisonlyimportantifyouareproducingfinalgoodsorinputspotentiallyboughtbymanydifferentcustomers.Iftheindustryisfragmentedsothatinputsofaspecificfirmmaybeproducedinoneplace,whereastheproductionofthefinalproducttakesplaceinanother,theproductionoffinalproductsmayverywellbeattractedtothecore,whileintermediateinputsproductiontakesplaceintheperiphery.

Whereasthereisaconsiderableliteratureanalyzingthetheoreticalimplicationsoftradeintegrationonindustriallocation,thereisverylittleempiricalevidencetodrawon.OnestudyanalyzinghowthelocationofEuropeanindustrieshasevolvedinthefaceofEuropeanintegrationfindsverymixedevidencefordifferentindustries（Midelfart-Knarvik,Overman,Redding,andVenables,2002）.Someindustriesseemtohavebecomemoreconcentrated,somemoredispersed,whileyetsomeothersdonotseemtohavechangedatall.Althoughcountriesandregionshavebe-comemorespecializedwithintheEU,thisprocesshasbeenveryslow.Thereisnoevidenceofpolarizationoccurringatthenationallevel,meaningincreasingdifferencesintheextentofeconomicactivities,butthereissomeevidenceattheregionallevel,implyingthatsomeregionsareinfactlosingout（seealsoMidelfart-KnarvikandOverman,2002）.

Howeverthechanges,inthosecaseswheretherearechanges,seemtobeveryslow.Thus,thefearthatincreasedtradeintegrationwithlow-wagecountriesinCEEwillproducedrasticchangesinthelocationofindustriesmightnotbejustified.Ontheotherhand,Europeanintegrationhasnotinvolvedcountrieswithsuchlowwagesbefore,soitmayverywellbethecasethatthereismuchgreaterscopeforarelocationoflabourinten