美赛F题山东大学O奖论文.pdf

美赛F题山东大学O奖论文.pdf

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ForofficeuseonlyT1_T2_T3_T4_TeamControlNumber46634ProblemChosenFForofficeuseonlyF1_F2_F3_F4_2016MCM/ICMSummarySheet（Yourteamssummaryshouldbeincludedasthefirstpageofyourelectronicsubmission.）Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.ModelingtoRefugeesPoliciesSummaryWiththousandsofrefugeesmovingacrossEuropeandmorearrivingeachday,considerableattentionhasbeengiventorefugeeintegrationpoliciesandpracticesinmanycountriesandregions.Webuildaseriesofmodelstoexplorethefactorsinvolvedwithfacilitatingthemovementofrefugeesfromtheircountriesoforiginintosafehavencountries.Firstly,weoptimizetheControlVariablealgorithmtobuildamodeltoanalyzethemeasuresandparametersofthecrisis.Wesetfactorssuchasthepsychologicalqualityandfaithofrefugees,theresourcesandrefugeepolicyoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeessaturationoftherefugee-receivingcountryandthenaturaldisasterorterrorist.Findingoutthateveryfactorisofcrucialimportance,andthemorefavorabletheconditionsare,themorelikelytherefugeesmovetothesafecountries.Secondly,weusetheindexsetabovetoanalyzetheflowofrefugees.FromtheoptimizedSmallWorldNetworkalgorithm,wefindthatthereare637000refugeesarrivingEUayear,amongthem,311000refugeeswilltransferviaEasternMediterranean,221000refugeesviaWestMediterranean,45000refugeesviaWestBalkans,32000refugeesviaEasternBorders,18000refugeesfromAlbaniatoGreece,and10000refugeesviaCentralMediterranean.Andthetransferrateshouldbecontrolledbelow50187permonth.Thirdly,weconsidertheparameterssetintask1aredynamic,findingoutthatourmodelisalsoapplicativewhileweshouldadjustthedetailsinourmodel.Finally,wemakeareporttodiscussourmodelindetailandraisetheneededpolicysupport.Weanalyzetheimpactofexogenouseventsaswell.Meanwhile,westatethescalabilityofourmodel.Thenwebelievethatourmodelcansolvemostoftheproblems.Intheend,weanalyzethestabilityandsensitivityofmodel.Wealsoconcludethestrengthsandweaknessesofourmodel.Further,theaccuracyofourmodelneedsimproving.Team#46634page1of22IntroductionBackgroundWithhundredsofthousandsofrefugeesmovingacrossEuropeandmorearrivingeachday,considerableattentionhasbeengiventorefugeeintegrationpoliciesandpracticesinmanycountriesandregions.Historyhasshownusthatmassfleeingofpopulationsoccurasaresultofmajorpoliticalandsocialunrestandwarfare.Thesecrisesbringasetofuniquechallengesthatmustbemanagedcarefullythrougheffectivepolicies.EventsintheMiddleEasthavecausedamassivesurgeofrefugeesemigratingfromtheMiddleEastintosafehavencountriesinEuropeandpartsofAsia,oftenmovingthroughtheMediterraneanandintocountriessuchasTurkey,Hungary,Germany,France,andUK.BytheendofOctober2015,Europeancountrieshadreceivedover715,000asylumapplicationsfromrefugees.Hungarytoppedthechartswithnearly1,450applicationsper100,000inhabitants,butwithonlyasmallpercentageofthoserequestsgranted（32%in2014）,leavingclosetoathousandrefugeeshomelessperevery100Kresidentsofthecountry.Europehasestablishedaquotasystemthateachcountryhasagreedtotakeinaparticularnumberofrefugees,withthemajorityoftheresettlementburdenlyingwithFranceandGermany.OurWorkFirstly,weoptimizetheControlVariablealgorithmtobuildamodeltoanalyzethemeasuresandparametersofthecrisis.Wesetthepsychologicalqualityofrefugees,thefaithoftherefugees,thematerialandfinancialresourcesoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeepolicyoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeessaturationoftherefugee-receivingcountryandthenaturaldisaster,terroristasfactors,findingoutthateveryfactorisimportanttothecrisis,andthemorefavorabletheconditionsare,themorelikelytherefugeesmovetothesafecountries.Secondly,weusetheindexsetabovetoanalyzetheflowofrefugees.FromtheoptimizedSmallWorldNetworkalgorithm,wefindthatthereare637000refugeesarrivingEUayear,amongthem,311000refugeeswilltransferviaEasternMediterranean,221000refugeesviaWestMediterranean,45000refugeesviaWestBalkans,32000refugeesviaEasternBorders,18000refugeesfromAlbaniatoGreece,and10000refugeesviaCentralMediterranean.Andthetransferrateshouldbecontrolledbelow50187permonth.Thirdly,weconsidertheparameterssetintask1aredynamic,findingoutthatourmodelisalsoapplicablewhileweshouldadjustthedetailsinourmodel.Finally,wemakeareporttodiscussourmodelindetailandraisetheneededpolicysupport.Weanalyzetheimpactofexogenouseventsaswell.Meanwhile,westatethescalabilityofourm