英文文献2.docx

英文文献2.docx

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英文文献2

2.AssessmentoftheEconomicContributionofWaterResourcestoNationalDevelopment

2.水资源对国家发展的经济贡献评估

2.1.Introduction

2.1.引言

Theprocessofdevelopmenthasbothsocialandeconomicdimensions.发展的过程同时具有社会和经济层面。

Thetwoarelinked,andreinforcing,inmanyimportantways.二者在许多重要方面联系紧密，相辅相成。

Atthemicrolevel,ashouseholdincomerises,afamilycanaffordabetterstandardofliving.在微观层面上，家庭收入增加，一个家庭可以享受更高的生活水平。

Atthemacrolevel,however,therearenumerousexamplesofcountrieswhere,althoughtheaveragelevelofincomehasincreased,incomedistributionhasbecomemoreinequitable.然而，在宏观层面上，有无数这样的的例子：

所在国家的收入平均水平虽然有所增加，收入分配却变得更加不公平。

Insomecasestheabsolute,aswellastherelative,well-beingofthepoorestpeopledeclinedaseconomicdevelopmentprogressed.在某些情况下，随着经济的发展进步，那部分最穷的人的福利的绝对值和相对值都在下降。

Thecountry’ssocialfabricwasplacedunderincreasingstrainbytheworseninglivingconditions,particularlyfortheurbanpoor.由于人民特别是城市贫民生活条件恶化，国家的社会结构压力越来越大。

Thedistributionofincomeisgenerallymoreskewedindevelopingcountriesthaninindustrialcountriesandalargeproportionoftheirtotalpopulationisoftenlivinginabsolutepoverty（asusedinthispaper,thetermabsolutepovertyreferstothestateofthosewithoutaccesstothebasicrequirementsofahealthylifeincludingsafewater,adequatenutritionandsanitationfacilities）evenincountrieswheretheaverageincomemaybemoderatelyhigh.发展中国家的收入分配与工业化国家相比一般更加不均匀，他们的总人口相当大的比例往往是生活在绝对贫困的状态下，甚至是在国家的平均收入相对较高的情况下。

（本文中的长期绝对贫困是指那些没有获得健康生活的基本要求，包括安全饮用水，足够的营养和卫生设施的状态）Forexample,inthePhilippinesin1971thelowest30percentofhouseholdsearnedonly8percentofthetotalincomewhileinJapanthecorrespondinggroupaccountedfor14percent（in1972）.例如，1971年在菲律宾收入最低的30％的家庭仅占总收入的8％，而在日本，相应的组占14％（1972年）。

Thedevelopmentandexploitationofacountry’swaterresourcesplaysanimportantroleinbothitseconomicandsocialdevelopment.Waterisbothaneconomicgoodandasocialnecessity.Thefirstsectionofthispaperdiscusseswater’scontributiontoeconomicdevelopment.Thesecondsectiondealswithitsroleinmeetingacountry’ssocialobjectives.Inthefinalsection,thequestionofwhethertheeconomicandsocialcontributionsofwaterresourcedevelopmentarecomplementaryorcompetingisdiscussed,andmethodsaresuggestedforintegratingtheachievementofbothobjectives.

2.2.WaterasanEconomicGood

Economicdevelopmentcanbeviewedastheprocessofincreasingtheproductionofgoodsandservicesgivenacountry’sresourceendowment.Theendowmentgenerallyincludesbothvariableresources,suchaslabourandcapital,andfixed,ornaturalresources,suchasland,minerals,water,andsoon.Combiningtheseinputsinsuchaway（thatis,withsuchasetoftechnologies）soastomaximizetotaloutputiswhatconstituteseconomicefficiency.Asaneconomygrowsitoftendevelopsmoresophisticatedproductionchainsleadingfrominputstooutputs.

Aconceptualtooloftenusedbyeconomiststocharttheeconomicgrowthprocessisaninput/output（I/O）matrix.Thisisbasicallyatablewhichliststheinputs,orfactorsofproductionalongthesideandtheoutputs（bysector）acrossthetop.Anumberfoundinaparticularcellofthetableisthecoefficientwhichtransformsaninputintoanoutputor,alternatively,breaksupanoutputintoitsconstituentinputs.Thusif0.5isthenumberinthecellreadingacrossfromlabourtoagriculture,thenforeachunitofagriculturaloutputonehalfunitoflabourinputisrequired.（Sucharigidrelationshipbetweeninputsandoutputsisanoversimplification,ofcourse.Substitutionsofoneinputforanotherarelikelytooccurifrelativepriceschange.Newtechnologiescancompletelychangetheproductionrelationship.Butintheshortrun,atleasttheordersofmagnitudeinanI/Otablecanprovideausefulsummaryofhowaneconomyfunctions.）Ofcourse,mostI/Otablesareconsiderablymoredisaggregatedandwouldhavemanysubsectorsofagricultureandmanyskillclassesoflabour.

AnexaminationofI/Otablesforseveraldevelopingcountrieswasmadeinanattempttodeterminethroughwhichsectorsthecontributionofwaterresourcestodevelopmentwasfelt.Thecountrieswhichincludedwaterasaseparatefactorofproductiontraceditsinfluencethroughthreemainsectors:

agriculture,powergenerationandtransportation.Sinceformanydevelopingcountriesagricultureisthedominantsectorinthegrossdomesticproduct（GDP）,watermayplayamajorroleinenablingGDPtogrowovertime.TheexamplesofirrigatedagricultureinPakistan,IndiaandthewesternUnitedStatesarecasesinpoint.Electricpower,asaninputtoindustrialdevelopment,isalsoanimportantsectorinLDCs,particularlyforthemiddleincomecountries.Ascomparedwithagriculture,however,powerproductionisnotasdependentuponabundantwaterresourcessincesubstitutessuchasthermalgenerationaremorereadilyavailable.Transportationissimilarinthatwhere,inagivencountry,navigablewatercoursesdonotexistotherformsoftransportationcanbedeveloped.Infact,theuseofwater-intensivemethodsofpowerproductionandtransportationmightnotbetheleastcostinvestmentevenwherethewaterresourcesexist.

Despitethesereservations,anddespitethecomplexityoftheeconomicgrowthprocess,onecouldhypothesizethatthereisacorrelationbetweentheabundanceofwaterresourcesandthelong-termgrowthpotentialofeconomies.Inordertotestthishypothesisinabroadway（infact,theinversehypothesisofnocorrelationistestedbythestatisticalmethodused）datawerecollectedonthewaterresourcesandGDPgrowthratesof26countries.Sixvariablesrelatingtohydrologicalcharacteristicsofthecountrieswereusedasproxiesfortheabundanceofwaterresources.Thecountriesselectedforthesecalculationswerechosenprimarilyonthebasisofavailabledataonwaterresources.TheyincludedfiveAfricancountries,elevenSouthandEastAsiancountries,andtenCentralorSouthAmericancountries.

Threevariableswereusedtotrytocapturetheeffectofwaterresourcesonagriculturaldevelopment.Thesewerethemeanannualrun-off,thetotalmeanprecipitation,andthemeanannualrainfall.Thefirsttwoofthesecanberelatedtoirrigatedagriculture,whereasthethirdcouldcapturethewaterinputforrainfedagriculture.Inordertocorrectfordifferencesincountrysizethefirsttwowerescaledbythelandareaofthecountry.Analysisofvariancetests（alsocalledFtests）wereconductedusingthesethreemeasuresofwaterresourcesandtheannualaveragerealgrowthrateinGDPoverthepzriod1950-1970.Thisperiodwaschosentorepresentalong-termtrend,undisturbedbymajorwarsorthepetroleumpriceincreases.Abetterdependentvariablewouldhavebeenthegrowthrateoftheagriculture（and,later,transportationandpower）sectoralone,butsuchdatawerenotavailableformanyofthesamplecountries）.TheFratiosproducedareshowninTableIwhereF*isthehurdlevalueforsignificance.Innocasewastheresultsignificantatthe95percentconfidencelevel.Thisdoesnotmean,ofcourse,thatwaterresourcesarenotanimportantdeterminantofagriculturalproduction.However,itdoesindicatethatthevariablesusedintheanalysiswerenotsufficientlysensitiveproxiestocapturetherealeffect,orotherdeterminantsofagriculturalproductionvariedacrossthedatasampleandtheireffectsoutweighedthoseofdifferingwaterresources.

Theanalysisshouldbefurtherqualifiedsincetheextenttowhichthemeanannualrun-offorthetotalmeanprecipitationisactuallycapturedandutilizedforirrigationisnotfullyknown.TheanalysisofthepotentialeffectofmaximizedutilizationonthegrowthofGDPhasnotbeenattempted.

Theeffectofwaterresourcesondevelopmentofthetransportationsectorwastestedusingadummyvariablewhichtookthevalueofoneifacountryhadatleastonenavigableriverinoronitsboundaries,andzeroifitdidnot.Thestatisticobtainedfromthistest,asshowninTableI,alsowasnotsignificantatthe95percentlevelofconfidence.

Twomeasuresofwater’simpactonpowerdevelopmentwereemployed.Thefirstwastheinstalledhydro-capacityforpowergeneration（in1968）scaledbycountry’sGDP.Thisscalingwasfeltnecessarytocorrectfordifferencesintotalpowerrequirementsamongcountriesofdifferingeconomicsizes.Thesecondvariablescaledthetotalinstalledhydro-capacitybythetotalgeneratingcapacityofthecountry.Thusitrepresentedthepercentageoftotalpowergenerationsuppliedbyhydrologicalresources.Theaveragepercentageforthe26countrysamplewas43percent.Itispossiblethatthismeasurecouldshowaperverseeffectifhydroresourcesaredevelopedfirstandthefastergrowingcountrieshavealreadymovedtothermalinvestment.Again,neitherFratiowassignificant.

Thenegativeresultsfromthesesimplestatisticaltestsshouldnotbetoosurprising.Asimple,one-dimensionaltestwasusedbecauseofthepaucityofcomparabledataonwaterresources,andbecauseitcouldsupplyafirstscreeningofanyimportantcorrelations.However,theinfluenceofalloftheexcludedvariablesinsuchasimpleanalysisisobviouslyconsiderable.Inaddition,suchatestimpliesthatthehypothesizedcorrelationismonotonicwhereasthepresenceof“toomuch”water（forexample,Bangladesh）couldbejustasdetrimentaltodevelopmentastoolittle.Theregularityofprecipitationmaybemoreimportantthanitsaveragelevel.Forallofthesereasonsonecannotconcludemuch.

TABLEI

AnalysisofVarianceTestson20YearGDPGrowthRate

Anotherwayofassessingtheeffectofwaterresourcesonacountr