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外文翻译

西安邮电大学

毕业设计（论文）

外文文献翻译

学院：

经济与管理学院

专业：

国际经济与贸易

班级：

国贸XX班

学生姓名：

XXX

导师姓名：

XXX职称：

XX

起止时间：

2016年03月07日至2016年03月10日

英文原文

Shiftingpatternsofeconomicgrowthandrethinkingdevelopment

Abstract

Thispaperprovidesanhistoricaloverviewofboththeevolutionoftheeconomicperformanceofthedevelopingworldandtheevolutionofeconomicthoughtondevelopmentpolicy.Thetwentiethcenturywasbroadlycharacterizedbydivergencebetweenhigh-incomecountriesandthedevelopingworld,withonlyalimitednumber（lessthan10%oftheeconomiesintheworld）managingtoprogressoutoflowerormiddle-incomestatustohigh-incomestatus.Thelastdecadewitnessedasharpreversalfromapatternofdivergencetoconvergence–particularlyforasetoflargemiddle-incomecountries.Thelatterphenomenonwasalsodrivenbyincreasingeconomictiesamongdevelopingcountriesand,ontheintellectualscale,increasedknowledgegenerationandsharingamongthedevelopingcountries.Re-thinkingdevelopmentpolicyimpliesconfrontingtheserealities:

twentiethcenturyeconomicdivergence,theexperienceofthehandfulofsuccessstories,andtherecentriseofthemulti-polargrowthworld.Thispaperprovidesdescriptivedataandaliteraturesurveytodocumentthesetrends.

Keywords

Economicgrowth,development,convergence,structuraltransformation

1.Introduction

Theindustrialrevolutionmarkedadramaticturningpointintheeconomicprogressofnations.Technologicalinnovationcreatednewtoolsthatcreatedthepotentialforadramaticincreaseinproductivityandlivingstandards.Duringthenineteenthcentury,anumberoftechnologicalleadersandearlyadaptersleaptaheadoftherestoftheworld,whileotherslaggedbehind.

Onemighthaveexpectedthatthetwentiethcenturywouldhavebeenaperiodinwhichtechnologyspreadacrosstheworld–allowingcountriestocatchupwithadvancedeconomies.Thismighthavebeenachievedthroughtradeandcapitalflowsbaseduponcontinuedprogressintransportationandcommunicationtechnology.Infact,thepredominantneo-classicalparadigmineconomicthinkingsuggestedthatthiswouldbethecase.

Instead,thetwentiethcenturywasanunfortunateperiodofcontinuedandaccelerateddivergenceinlivingstandards.Inpart,thismayhavebeenduetoaninterruptionintradeandcapitalflowsduringtheWorldWarsandtheinter-warGreatDepressionthatmarkedthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.ProtectionismalsopersistedinmanycountriesfollowingtheSecondWorldWar.ItwasonlywiththeUruguayRoundofnegotiationsinthe1980s,leadingtotheeventualestablishmentoftheWTOin1995,thataclearinstitutionalizedpathtowardstradeopeningwasestablished.Meanwhile,technologicalprogressincommunicationsandtransport–butespeciallycommunications–facilitatedtheaccelerationofglobaltradeandcapitalflowsinthelastquarterofthetwentiethcentury.

Ontheotherhand,therewasasmallgroupofexceptionalcasesof‘catch-up.’Inaddition,sincetheturnofthecentury,therehasbeenreinvigoratedgrowthinthedevelopingworld,especiallyinanumberoflargedevelopingcountries,suchasBrazil,China,India,Indonesia,andtheRussianFederation.Therearenumerousothercountriesthataretakingadvantageofgrowingtradeandfinanciallinks–bothwithdevelopedanddevelopingcountries–toaccelerateeconomicgrowth.Inbrief,theglobaleconomyhasenteredaperiodofmulti-polargrowthwithlargedevelopingcountriesleadingthewayasthenewandmostdynamicgrowthpoles.

Thenextsectionprovidesahistoryoftwentiethcenturydivergence.Wethenprovideananatomyoftheriseofthemulti-polargrowthworld.Thisisfollowedbyacritiqueofthehistoryofdevelopmentthinkingandtheneedforademocraticapproachtoeconomicenquiryfordevelopment.

2.Thechallengeofeconomicdevelopment:

historicalantecedentsandtwentiethcenturydivergence

Beforetheindustrialrevolution,therewaslittlegrowthintheworldeconomyandtheincomegapbetweencountrieswasextremelysmall.Forexample,evenin1820,thebetween-countryincomedifferencesrepresentedlessthan15%ofincomeequalityacrosspeopleintheworld,whereasthebetween-countrysharerosetowelloverhalfofglobalinequalityby1950,andtherichestcountry’spercapitaincomewasonlyjustlessthanfourtimeshigherthanthepoorest,andtherichestcountries’percapitaincomeisanastonishing127timeshigherthanthepoorestnow.TheindustrialrevolutionledtotheGreatDivergence:

worldgrowthwasdrivenbyafewWesternindustrializedcountriesbeforetheSecondWorldWar,andsimilarlyaftertheSecondWorldWar–withtheexceptionofJapan,whichjoinedthegroupofadvancedindustrializednations.

Maddison（1982）dividesthelast1500yearsintofoureconomicepochs:

agrarianism,advancingagrarianism,merchantcapitalism,andcapitalism.Thecapitalismperiodstartedatthetimeoftheindustrialrevolution.Thenewtechnologycreatedthepotentialfornewtechniquesofproductionthatrequiredorganizationalstructuresbasedoncapitalisteconomicrelations.Italsorepresentedthestartofaperiodofunprecedentedgrowthfortheworldeconomy.

2.1Theindustrialrevolutionandthegreatdivergence

Allofthischangedwiththeindustrialrevolution.Scientificprogressbegantobeappliedtothemeansofproductionasmachinesweredevelopedthatbothincreasedproductivityinfirms,butalsodramaticallyreducedtransportationcosts.Thiscreatedthepossibilityforthecountriesthatdevelopedthosetechnologies,orthosethatadaptedthetechnologiesfirst,togrowmuchfasterthanlesstechnologicallyadvancedcountries.

Theresultofthisprocesswasthat（atleastpriortotheyear2000）theglobaleconomywasdominatedbythefewindustrializedeconomiesthatexistedintheworld,andmostofthesefeweconomieshadbecomeindustrializedeitherasleadersorearlierfollowersofthenineteenthcenturyindustrialrevolution.Lin（1995）arguesthatthetransitionfrominnovationbasedontheexperiencesofartisan/farmersinthepre-industrialrevolutionperiodtoinnovationbasedoncontrolledexperimentsguidedbyscienceaftertheindustrialrevolutionwasthekeyfactor.Societalincentivesinpre-modernChinadidnotfavorthemovetowardthehumancapitalaccumulationneededforthenewsystemofinnovation.Historicaldatadramaticallyrevealthedivergentpatternofgrowthacrosscountrygroupings.Inthelatenineteenthcentury,theWesternEuropeancountriesandtheircolonial‘offshoots’begantoexperienceanhistorictake-offinincomespercapita.ThiswaslatermatchedbyJapaninthemiddleofthetwentiethcentury.TheworldeconomywasdrivenbyseverallargeWesternEuropeancountries（Germany,France,Italy,theUnitedKingdom）andAnglophone‘offshoots’（Australia,NewZealand,theUnitedStates,andCanada）,plusJapan.Manyothercountries,includingtheformerSovietUnion,wereabletorisetomiddle-incomestatusandexperiencelevelsofaverageeconomicwelfarethatfarsurpassedpriorcenturies;however,thesestandardsoflivingstilllaggedbadlybehindtheleadingcountries.Inbrief,theglobaleconomywasdominatedbytheso-called‘G7’.

Onecanseethesignificanceofthesefewlargeeconomiesbothintermsoftheirsharesofglobaleconomicoutputandintermsoftheircontributiontoeconomicgrowth.Duringthetwentiethcentury,theG7maintainedalargeandfairlystableshareofworldgrossdomesticproductthatstartedandendedthecenturyatabout45%.Therewasaslightriseto51%duringthefirsthalfthecenturythatwasreversedduringthesecondhalfofthecentury.

2.2Lowandmiddleincomecountrygrowth‘traps’

Inprinciple,onewouldexpect,andcertainlyhope,thatthepoorercountriesintheworldcancatchupwiththerichercountriesintheworld.Unfortunately,fewcountrieshaveexperienced‘convergence’onasustainedbasis.Infact,onefamouspaperthatdiscussestheperformanceduringthetwentiethcenturyisentitled:

‘Divergence,bigtime’.

OneapproachtomeasuringrelativeprogressistolookatpercapitaGDPrelativetotheUnitedStates,whichhasbeenthesymbolofadvancedindustrializedcountriesaftertheSecondWorldWar.Figure4showsthatthesharesofcountriesineachratiorangehavebeenfairlystable,withsomegrowthinthepercentageofcountriesintheupperMICrange（say,roughly0.3–0.7）,butreallynotmuchexpansionoftheshareofcountriesthatareat0.7oftheUSlevelofpercapitaGDP.Atthebottomend,theshareat0.1orlessofUSlevelsremainsstucknear40%.Persistently,over80%ofthecountriesintheworldhaveGDPpercapitalevelsthatarehalforlessthanhalfofthelevelintheUnitedStates.

Thereisalsosome‘churning’wherecountriesnotonlyconvergeuptheladder,butalsodivergedowntheladder.ThisisthecaseofsomeformercoloniesinAfrica:

manyhavegonefrombeinglowerMICsatindependencetoLICsin1980.Sincethen,somehaveclimbedbackuptoMICstatus.TherearealsocountriesattheHICendofthedistributionthathavefallenbacktoMICstatus,bythismeasure.

Thenetresultisthat,duringthetwentiethcentury,veryfewcountriesmanagedtoprogressfromlowincomestatustomiddleincomestatusandthentohighincomestatus.Partofthishistorywasexplainedintheprevioussections,andhopefully,therecentriseofanumberoflargeMICsmarksthebeginningofabettercenturyfordevelopingcountryconvergence.Thatsaid,Table2summarizeshowonlyahandfulofdevelopingcountrieshavesucceededinreachinghighlevelsofprosperity,andmanyofthemareinWesternEurope.Thefewdevelopingeconomysuccessstori