mankiw7e-chap15.ppt

mankiw7e-chap15.ppt

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MACROECONOMICS2010WorthPublishers,allrightsreserved2010WorthPublishers,allrightsreservedSEVENTHEDITIONPowerPointSlidesbyRonCronovichN.GregoryMankiwCHAPTERStabilizationPolicy15Inthischapter,youwilllearn:

abouttwopolicydebates:

1.Shouldpolicybeactiveorpassive?

2.Shouldpolicybebyruleordiscretion?

2CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyQuestion1:

Shouldpolicybeactiveorpassive?

GrowthrateofU.S.realGDP1970197519801985199019952000200520100246810-2-4Percentchangefrom4quartersearlierAveragegrowthrateIncreaseinunemploymentduringrecessionspeaktroughincreaseinno.ofunemployedpersons（millions）July1953May19542.11Aug1957April19582.27April1960February19611.21December1969November19702.01November1973March19753.58January1980July19801.68July1981November19824.08July1990March19911.67March2001November20011.50Increasefrom12/2007thru6/2009:

7.2million!

Increasefrom12/2007thru6/2009:

7.2million!

5CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforactivepolicyRecessionscauseeconomichardshipformillionsofpeople.TheEmploymentActof1946:

“ItisthecontinuingpolicyandresponsibilityoftheFederalGovernmenttopromotefullemploymentandproduction.”Themodelofaggregatedemandandsupply（Chaps.9-13）showshowfiscalandmonetarypolicycanrespondtoshocksandstabilizetheeconomy.6CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsagainstactivepolicyPoliciesactwithlong&variablelags,including:

insidelag:

thetimebetweentheshockandthepolicyresponse.takestimetorecognizeshocktakestimetoimplementpolicy,especiallyfiscalpolicyoutsidelag:

thetimeittakesforpolicytoaffecteconomy.Ifconditionschangebeforepolicysimpactisfelt,thepolicymaydestabilizetheeconomy.7CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyAutomaticstabilizersdefinition:

policiesthatstimulateordepresstheeconomywhennecessarywithoutanydeliberatepolicychange.Designedtoreducethelagsassociatedwithstabilizationpolicy.Examples:

incometaxunemploymentinsurancewelfare8CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyForecastingthemacroeconomyBecausepoliciesactwithlags,policymakersmustpredictfutureconditions.Twowayseconomistsgenerateforecasts:

LeadingeconomicindicatorsdataseriesthatfluctuateinadvanceoftheeconomyMacroeconometricmodelsLarge-scalemodelswithestimatedparametersthatcanbeusedtoforecasttheresponseofendogenousvariablestoshocksandpolicies9CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1960ssourceofLEIdata:

TheConferenceBoardTheIndexofLeadingEconomicIndicatorsincludes10dataseries（seep.258）.10CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1970ssourceofLEIdata:

TheConferenceBoard11CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1980ssourceofLEIdata:

TheConferenceBoard12CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1990ssourceofLEIdata:

TheConferenceBoardMistakesforecastingthe1982recessionUnemploymentrate14CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyForecastingthemacroeconomyBecausepoliciesactwithlags,policymakersmustpredictfutureconditions.Theprecedingslidesshowthattheforecastsareoftenwrong.Thisisonereasonwhysomeeconomistsopposepolicyactivism.15CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLucascritiqueDuetoRobertLucaswhowonNobelPrizein1995forrationalexpectations.Forecastingtheeffectsofpolicychangeshasoftenbeendoneusingmodelsestimatedwithhistoricaldata.Lucaspointedoutthatsuchpredictionswouldnotbevalidifthepolicychangealtersexpectationsinawaythatchangesthefundamentalrelationshipsbetweenvariables.16CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyAnexampleoftheLucascritiquePrediction（basedonpastexperience）:

Anincreaseinthemoneygrowthratewillreduceunemployment.TheLucascritiquepointsoutthatincreasingthemoneygrowthratemayraiseexpectedinflation,inwhichcaseunemploymentwouldnotnecessarilyfall.17CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheJurysoutLookingatrecenthistorydoesnotclearlyanswerQuestion1:

Itshardtoidentifyshocksinthedata.Itshardtotellhowoutcomeswouldhavebeendifferenthadactualpoliciesnotbeenused.18CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyQuestion2:

Shouldpolicybeconductedbyruleordiscretion?

19CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyRulesanddiscretion:

BasicconceptsPolicyconductedbyrule:

Policymakersannounceinadvancehowpolicywillrespondinvarioussituations,andcommitthemselvestofollowingthrough.Policyconductedbydiscretion:

Aseventsoccurandcircumstanceschange,policymakersusetheirjudgmentandapplywhateverpoliciesseemappropriateatthetime.20CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforrules1.Distrustofpolicymakersandthepoliticalprocessmisinformedpoliticianspoliticiansinterestssometimesnotthesameastheinterestsofsociety21CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforrules2.Thetimeinconsistencyofdiscretionarypolicydef:

Ascenario