比尔盖茨谈能源TED字幕.docx

比尔盖茨谈能源TED字幕.docx

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比尔盖茨谈能源TED字幕

I’mgoingtalktotodayaboutenergyandclimate.Andthatmightseemabitsurprisingbecausemyfull-timeworkatthefoundationisaboutvaccinesandseeds,aboutthethingsthatweneedtoinventanddelivertohelpthepooresttwobillionlivebetterlives.

Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeoplefact,moreimportantthananyonetheelseplaonet.Theclimategettingworsemeansthatmanyyearsthatmanyyears,theircopswon’tgrow.

Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain,thingswillchangeinwatheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan’tsupportAnd.thatleadstostarvation,itleadstouncertainty,itleadstounrest.So,thepriceofenveryimportanttothem.Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowepriceof,toreducepoverty,byfaryouwouldpickenergy.Now,theenergyhasbecomedownovertime.Reallyadvancedcivilizationisbadvancesinenergy.

ThecoalrevolutionfueledtheIndustrialRevolution,and,eveni

1990s’wevseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,’sandthawhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,wecanmakemodernmaanddosomanythingsAnd.so,we’reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworldBut,.aswemakeitcheaper-andlet’sgoformakingittwiceascheap-weneedtomeetanewconstrain,andthat

constrainhastodowithCO2.CO2iswarningtheplanet,andtheeqonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.IfyousumuptheCO2

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getsemitted,thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,andthattemperatureincreaseladstosomeverynegativeffects:

theeffectsontheweather,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,inthatthenatureecosystemscan’t

adjusttotheserapidchanges,andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.Now,theexactamountofhowyoumapfromacertainincrease

CO2towhattemperaturewillbeandwherethepositivefeedbackare,there’ssomeuncertainthere,butynotverymuchAnd.there’scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,buttheywillbeextrebad.Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes.Dowereallyhavdowntonearzero?

Can’twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?

Andthe

answeristhatuntilwegetneartozero,thetemperaturewillcontinueAndsothat’sabigchallengeIt’.sverydifferentthansaying“We’reatwelve-foot-hightrucktryingtogetunderaten-footbridge,andwecajustsortofsqueezeunder”.Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.

Now,weputoutofalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,over26billiontForeachAmerican,’saboutit20tons;forpeopleinpoorcountries,it’less

thanoneton’s.anItaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplaneAnd,somehow,wehavetomakechangesthatwillbringthatdo

tozero.’sItbeenconstantlygoing’suponly.Itvariouseconomicchangesthathavebeenflatteneditatall,sowehavetogofromrapidrisingto

falling,andfallingallthewaytozero.Thisequationhasfourfactors,bitofmultiplication:

So,’reygotuathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwantto

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gettozero,andthat’sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,theserviceseachperson’usingonaverage,theenergyonaverageforeachservice,andtheCO2beingputoutperunitof’senergylookat.Soeach,let

oneoftheseandseehowwegetthisdowntozero.Probably,oneonumberisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero’sback.Nowfromthat

highschoolalgebra,but’stakeletalook.First,’vewegotpopulation.Theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople’sheaded.Thatuptoaboutninebillion.Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,healthcare,reprodhealthservices,wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,bweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.Thesecondfactoristheserviceswencompasseverything:

thefootweeat,clothing,TV,heating.Thesegoodthings:

gettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservicestoeveryoneontheplanet’.sAndagreatitthingforthisnumbertogoup.Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,weprobablycouldcutbackuseless,buteveryyear,numer,thisonaverage,isgoingtogoup,andso,overall,thatwillmorethandouble,theservicesdeliveredperperson.

Herewehaveaverybasicservice:

Doyouhavelightinginyour

housetobeabletoreadyourhomework?

And,infact,these’t,sokidsdonthey’regoingoutandreadingtheirschoolunderworkthestreetlamps.

Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,herefinallywehavesonews.Wehavesomething’notthatgoingup.Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglightingthroughdifferenttypesofcar,different

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waysofbuilding--therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbringtheforthatservicedownquitesubstantially.Thereareotherserviceslikwemakefertilizer,orhowwedoairtransport,wheretheroomsfor

improvementarefar,farless.Andso,overall’reoptimistic,wehere,ifmay

getareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.Butforthesefirstthreefactors’venow,wegonefrom26billionto,at

best,may13billiontons,andthat’cjutstit.wonSo’sletlookatthisfourthfactor-thisisgoingtobeakeyone-andthisistheamountofCO2pupereachunitofenergy.Andsothequestionis:

canyouactuallygettzero?

Ifyouburncoal,noIfyou.burnnaturalgas,no.Almosteveryway

makeelectricitytoday,exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnucleoutCO2.Andso,what’regoingwetohavetodoataglobalscale,iscreatenewsystem.

Andso,weneedenergymiracles.Now,when“miracle,Iuse”theterm

Idon’tmeansomething’sthatimpossible.Themicroprocessorisamiracle.ThepersonalcomputerisamiracleThe.InternetanditsservicesaremiraclesSo,.thepeopleherehaveparticipatedinthecreationofmanymiraclesUsually,.wedon’thaveadeadline,whereyouhavetogetthe

miraclebyacertaindate.Usually,youjustkindofstandbyandsomalong.Thisisacasewhereweactuallyhavetodriveatfullspeedanmiracleinaprettytighttimeline.

NowIthoug“ht,owcouldIreallycapturethis?

Istheresomekindo

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naturalillustration,somedemonstrationthatwouldgrabpeople’simaginationhere?

”IthoughtbacktoayearagowhenIbroughtmosquitoandsomehowpeopleenjoyedthat.Itreallygottheminvolvedintheyouknow,therearepeoplewholivewithmosquitos.So,withenergy,couldcomeupwithisthis.IdecidedthatreleasingfireflieswouldbecontributiontotheenvironmentherethisyearSo.herewehavesome

naturalfireflies’m.Itoldtheydon’tbite,infact,theymightnotevenleavethatjar.Now,thereallsortsofgimmickysolutionslikethatone,butthdon’treallyadduptomuch.Weneedsolutions-eitheroneorseveral-haveunbelievablescaleandunbelievablereliability,and,’salthoughthmanydirectionspeopleareseeking,Ireallyonlyseefivethatcanacthebignumbers’ve.Ileftouttide,geothermal,fusion,biofuels.Thosemamakesomecontribution,andiftheycandobetterthanIexpect,somthebetter,butmykeypointhere’veisgoingthatwetohavetoworkoneachofthesefive,andwecan’tgiveupanyofthembecausetheylookdaunting,becausetheyallhavesignificantchallengesLet.’slookfirstat

theburningfossilfuels,eitherburningcoalorburningnaturalgas.Whyouneedtodothere,seemslikeitmightbe’snot,simple,butandthat’itotakealltheCO2,afteryou’veburnedit,goingouttheflue,pressurizeit,

createaliquid,putitsomewhere,andhopeitstaysthere.Nowwehapilotthingsthatdothisatthe60to80percentlevel,butgettingtothpercentage,thatwillbeverytricky,andagreeingonwheretheseCO2

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quantitiesshouldbeputwillbehard,butthetoughestonehereisthislong-termissueWho.’sgoingtobesure?

Who’sgoingtoguaranteesomethingthatisliterallybillionsoftimelargethananytypeofofwayouthinkofintermsofnuclearorotherthings?

Thisisalotofvolumthat’satoughone.

NextwouldbenuclearIt.alsohasthreebigproblems:

Cost,particularlyinhighlyregulatedcountries,ishigh,theissueofthethereallyfeelingoodaboutnothingcouldgowrong,that,eventhoughyouhavethesehumanoperators,thatthefueldoesn’tgetusedforweapons.Andthenwhatdoyoudowiththewaste?

And’snot,althoughverylarge,it

therearealotofconcernsaboutthat.Peopleneedtofeelgoodabo

threeverytoughproblemsthatmightbesolvable,andso,shouldbe

on.Thelastthreeofthe’vefive,Igroupedtogether.Thesearewhatpeople

oftenrefertoastherenewable.Andtheyactually’sgreat--althoughtheyit

don’trequirefuel-theyhavesomedisadvantages.Oneofthattheden

energygatheredinthesetechnologiesisdramaticallylessthanapower

plan.Thisisenergyfarming,’resotalkingyouaboutmanysquaremiles,thousandsoftimemoreareathanyouthinkofasanormalenergyplAlso,theseareintermittentsources.The’tshinesunalldoesnday,itdoesn’t

shineeveryday,and,likewise,the’twindblowdoesnallthetime.Andalso,ifyoudependonthesesources,youhavetohavesomewayofgettingtheenergyduringthosetimeperiod’sit’sthatnotaavailable.’So,vegotwebig

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costchallengeshere,wehavetransmissionchallenges:

forexample,energysourceisoutsideyourcountry;younotonlyneedthetechnolbutyouhavetodealwiththeriskoftheenergycomingfromelsewheAndfinally,thisstorageproblemAnd,.todimensionalizethis,Iwentthroughandlookedatalltypesofbatteriesthatgetmade--forcars,forcomputers,forphones,forflashlights,foreverything--andcomparedtotheamountofelectricityenergytheworlduses,andwhatfoundisthebatterieswemakenowcouldstorelessthan10minutesofallthAndso,infact,weneedabigbreakthroughhere,’ssomethinggoingtothatbeafactorof100betterthantheapproacheswehavenow.It’snotimpossible,but’snotitaeasything.Now,thisshowsupwhenyoutrytogettheintermittentsourcetobeabove,say,20to30percent’reofwhatusing.Ifyou’recountingonitfor100percent,youneedamiraclebatterNow,how’rewegoingtogoforwardonthis’--thewhatrightapproach?

IsitaManhattanProject?

’sWtheatthingthatcangetusing’s.Whatthe

thingthatc