The End of History.docx

The End of History.docx

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TheEndofHistory

TheEndofHistory?

*

FrancisFukuyama**

INWATCHINGtheflowofeventsoverthepastdecadeorso,itishardtoavoidthefeelingthatsomethingveryfundamentalhashappenedinworldhistory.ThepastyearhasseenafloodofarticlescommemoratingtheendoftheColdWar,andthefactthat"peace"seemstobebreakingoutinmanyregionsoftheworld.Mostoftheseanalyseslackanylargerconceptualframeworkfordistinguishingbetweenwhatisessentialandwhatiscontingentoraccidentalinworldhistory,andarepredictablysuperficial.IfMr.GorbachevwereoustedfromtheKremlinoranewAyatollahproclaimedthemillenniumfromadesolateMiddleEasterncapital,thesesamecommentatorswouldscrambletoannouncetherebirthofaneweraofconflict.

Andyet,allofthesepeoplesensedimlythatthereissomelargerprocessatwork,aprocessthatgivescoherenceandordertothedailyheadlines.Thetwentiethcenturysawthedevelopedworlddescendintoaparoxysmofideologicalviolence,asliberalismcontendedfirstwiththeremnantsofabsolutism,thenbolshevismandfascism,andfinallyanupdatedMarxismthatthreatenedtoleadtotheultimateapocalypseofnuclearwar.Butthecenturythatbeganfullofself-confidenceintheultimatetriumphofWesternliberaldemocracyseemsatitsclosetobereturningfullcircletowhereitstarted:

nottoan"endofideology"oraconvergencebetweencapitalismandsocialism,asearlierpredicted,buttoanunabashedvictoryofeconomicandpoliticalliberalism.

ThetriumphoftheWest,oftheWesternidea,isevidentfirstofallinthetotalexhaustionofviablesystematicalternativestoWesternliberalism.Inthepastdecade,therehavebeenunmistakablechangesintheintellectualclimateoftheworld'stwolargestcommunistcountries,andthebeginningsofsignificantreformmovementsinboth.ButthisphenomenonextendsbeyondhighpoliticsanditcanbeseenalsointheineluctablespreadofconsumeristWesterncultureinsuchdiversecontextsasthepeasants'marketsandcolortelevisionsetsnowomnipresentthroughoutChina,thecooperativerestaurantsandclothingstoresopenedinthepastyearinMoscow,theBeethovenpipedintoJapanesedepartmentstores,andtherockmusicenjoyedalikeinPrague,Rangoon,andTehran.

WhatwemaybewitnessingisnotjusttheendoftheColdWar,orthepassingofaparticularperiodofpostwarhistory,buttheendofhistoryassuch:

thatis,theendpointofmankind'sideologicalevolutionandtheuniversalizationofWesternliberaldemocracyasthefinalformofhumangovernment.ThisisnottosaythattherewillnolongerbeeventstofillthepagesofForeignAffair'syearlysummariesofinternationalrelations,forthevictoryofliberalismhasoccurredprimarilyintherealmofideasorconsciousnessandisasyetincompletein.therealormaterialworld.Buttherearepowerfulreasonsforbelievingthatitistheidealthatwillgovernthematerialworldinthelongrun.Tounderstandhowthisisso,wemustfirstconsidersometheoreticalissuesconcerningthenatureofhistoricalchange.

I

THENOTIONoftheendofhistoryisnotanoriginalone.ItsbestknownpropagatorwasKarlMarx,whobelievedthatthedirectionofhistoricaldevelopmentwasapurposefulonedeterminedbytheinterplayofmaterialforces,andwouldcometoanendonlywiththeachievementofacommunistutopiathatwouldfinallyresolveallpriorcontradictions.Buttheconceptofhistoryasadialecticalprocesswithabeginning,amiddle,andanendwasborrowedbyMarxfromhisgreatGermanpredecessor,GeorgWilhelmFriedrichHegel.

Forbetterorworse,muchofHegel'shistoricismhasbecomepartofourcontemporaryintellectualbaggage.Thenotionthatmankindhasprogressedthroughaseriesofprimitivestagesofconsciousnessonhispathtothepresent,andthatthesestagescorrespondedtoconcreteformsofsocialorganization,suchastribal,slave-owning,theocratic,andfinallydemocratic-egalitariansocieties,hasbecomeinseparablefromthemodernunderstandingofman.Hegelwasthefirstphilosophertospeakthelanguageofmodernsocialscience,insofarasmanforhimwastheproductofhisconcretehistoricalandsocialenvironmentandnot,asearliernaturalrighttheoristswouldhaveit,acollectionofmoreorlessfixed"natural"attributes.Themasteryandtransformationofman'snaturalenvironmentthroughtheapplicationofscienceandtechnologywasoriginallynotaMarxistconcept,butaHegelianone.Unlikelaterhistoricistswhosehistoricalrelativismdegeneratedintorelativismtoutcourt,however,Hegelbelievedthathistoryculminatedinanabsolutemoment-amomentinwhichafinal,rationalformofsocietyandstatebecamevictorious.

ItisHegel'smisfortunetobeknownnowprimarilyasMarx'sprecursor;anditisourmisfortunethatfewofusarefamiliarwithHegel'sworkfromdirectstudy,butonlyasithasbeenfilteredthroughthedistortinglensofMarxism.InFrance,however,therehasbeenanefforttosaveHegelfromhisMarxistinterpretersandtoresurrecthimasthephilosopherwhomostcorrectlyspeakstoourtime.AmongthosemodernFrenchinterpretersofHegel,thegreatestwascertainlyAlexandreKojève,abrilliantRussianémigréwhotaughtahighlyinfluentialseriesofseminarsinParisinthe1930sattheEcolePractiquedesHautesEtudes.[1]WhilelargelyunknownintheUnitedStates,Kojèvehadamajorimpactontheintellectuallifeofthecontinent.AmonghisstudentsrangedsuchfutureluminariesasJean-PaulSartreontheLeftandRaymondAronontheRight;postwarexistentialismborrowedmanyofitsbasiccategoriesfromHegelviaKojève.

KojèvesoughttoresurrecttheHegelofthePhenomenologyofMind,theHegelwhoproclaimedhistorytobeatanendin1806.ForasearlyasthisHegelsawinNapoleon'sdefeatofthePrussianmonarchyattheBattleofJenathevictoryoftheidealsoftheFrenchRevolution,andtheimminentuniversalizationofthestateincorporatingtheprinciplesoflibertyandequality.Kojève,farfromrejectingHegelinlightoftheturbulenteventsofthenextcenturyandahalf,insistedthatthelatterhadbeenessentiallycorrect.[2]TheBattleofJenamarkedtheendofhistorybecauseitwasatthatpointthatthevanguardofhumanity（atermquitefamiliartoMarxists）actualizedtheprinciplesoftheFrenchRevolution.Whiletherewasconsiderableworktobedoneafter1806-abolishingslaveryandtheslavetrade,extendingthefranchisetoworkers,women,blacks,andotherracialminorities,etc.-thebasicprinciplesoftheliberaldemocraticstatecouldnotbeimprovedupon.Thetwoworldwarsinthiscenturyandtheirattendantrevolutionsandupheavalssimplyhadtheeffectofextendingthoseprinciplesspatially,suchthatthevariousprovincesofhumancivilizationwerebroughtuptothelevelofitsmostadvancedoutposts,andofforcingthosesocietiesinEuropeandNorthAmericaatthevanguardofcivilizationtoimplementtheirliberalismmorefully.

Thestatethatemergesattheendofhistoryisliberalinsofarasitrecognizesandprotectsthroughasystemoflawman'suniversalrighttofreedom,anddemocraticinsofarasitexistsonlywiththeconsentofthegoverned.ForKojève,thisso-called"universalhomogenousstate"foundreal-lifeembodimentinthecountriesofpostwarWesternEurope-preciselythoseflabby,prosperous,self-satisfied,inward-looking,weak-willedstateswhosegrandestprojectwasnothingmoreheroicthanthecreationoftheCommonMarket.[3]Butthiswasonlytobeexpected.Forhumanhistoryandtheconflictthatcharacterizeditwasbasedontheexistenceof"contradictions":

primitiveman'squestformutualrecognition,thedialecticofthemasterandslave,thetransformationandmasteryofnature,thestrugglefortheuniversalrecognitionofrights,andthedichotomybetweenproletarianandcapitalist.Butintheuniversalhomogenousstate,allpriorcontradictionsareresolvedandallhumanneedsaresatisfied.Thereisnostruggleorconflictover"large"issues,andconsequentlynoneedforgeneralsorstatesmen;whatremainsisprimarilyeconomicactivity.Andindeed,Kojève'slifewasconsistentwithhisteaching.Believingthattherewasnomoreworkforphilosophersaswell,sinceHegel（correctlyunderstood）hadalreadyachievedabsoluteknowledge,KojèveleftteachingafterthewarandspenttheremainderofhislifeworkingasabureaucratintheEuropeanEconomicCommunity,untilhisdeathin1968.

Tohiscontemporariesatmid-century,Kojève'sproclamationoftheendofhistorymusthaveseemedlikethetypicaleccentricsolipsismofaFrenchintellectual,comingasitdidontheheelsofWorldWarIIandattheveryheightoftheColdWar.TocomprehendhowKojèvecouldhavebeensoaudaciousastoassertthathistoryhasended,wemustfirstofallunderstandthemeaningofHegelianidealism.

II

FORHEGEL,thecontradictionsthatdrivehistoryexistfirstofallintherealmofhumanconsciousness,i.e.onthelevelofideas[4]-notthetrivialelectionyearproposalsofAmericanpoliticians,butideasinthesenseoflargeunifyingworldviewsthatmightbestbeunderstoodundertherubricofideology.Ideologyinthissenseisnotrestrictedtothesecularandexplicitpoliticaldoctrinesweusuallyassociatewiththeterm,butcanincludereligion,culture,andthecomplexofmoralvaluesunderlyinganysocietyaswell.

Hegel'sviewoftherelationshipbetweentheidealandtherealormaterialworldswasanextremelycomplicatedone,beginningwiththefactthatforhimthedistinctionbetweenthetwowasonlyapparent.[5]Hedidnotbelievethattherealworldconformedorcouldbemadetoconformtoideologicalpreconceptions