罗斯公司理财Chpt005.ppt
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McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-0CorporateFinanceRossWesterfieldJaffeSixthEditionSixthEdition5ChapterFiveHowtoValueBondsandStocksMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-1ChapterOutline5.1DefinitionandExampleofaBond5.2HowtoValueBonds5.3Bondconcepts5.4ThePresentValueofCommonStocks5.5EstimatesofParametersintheDividend-DiscountModel5.6GrowthOpportunities5.7TheDividendGrowthModelandtheNPVGOModel(Advanced)5.8PriceEarningsRatio5.9StockMarketReporting5.10SummaryandConclusionsMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-2ValuationofBondsandStockFirstPrinciples:
Valueoffinancialsecurities=PVofexpectedfuturecashflowsTovaluebondsandstocksweneedto:
Estimatefuturecashflows:
Size(howmuch)andTiming(when)Discountfuturecashflowsatanappropriaterate:
Therateshouldbeappropriatetotheriskpresentedbythesecurity.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-35.1DefinitionandExampleofaBondAbondisalegallybindingagreementbetweenaborrowerandalender:
Specifiestheprincipalamountoftheloan.Specifiesthesizeandtimingofthecashflows:
Indollarterms(fixed-rateborrowing)Asaformula(adjustable-rateborrowing)McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-45.1DefinitionandExampleofaBondConsideraU.S.governmentbondlistedas63/8ofDecember2009.TheParValueofthebondis$1,000.Couponpaymentsaremadesemi-annually(June30andDecember31forthisparticularbond).Sincethecouponrateis63/8thepaymentis$31.875.OnJanuary1,2002thesizeandtimingofcashflowsare:
McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-55.2HowtoValueBondsIdentifythesizeandtimingofcashflows.Discountatthecorrectdiscountrate.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-6PureDiscountBondsInformationneededforvaluingpurediscountbonds:
Timetomaturity(T)=Maturitydate-todaysdateFacevalue(F)Discountrate(r)Presentvalueofapurediscountbondattime0:
McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-7PureDiscountBonds:
ExampleFindthevalueofa30-yearzero-couponbondwitha$1,000parvalueandadiscountrateof6%.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-8Level-CouponBondsInformationneededtovaluelevel-couponbonds:
Couponpaymentdatesandtimetomaturity(T)Couponpayment(C)perperiodandFacevalue(F)DiscountrateValueofaLevel-couponbond=PVofcouponpaymentannuity+PVoffacevalueMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-9Level-CouponBonds:
ExampleFindthepresentvalue(asofJanuary1,2002),ofa6-3/8couponT-bondwithsemi-annualpayments,andamaturitydateofDecember2009ifthediscountrateis5-percent.OnJanuary1,2002thesizeandtimingofcashflowsare:
McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-145.4ThePresentValueofCommonStocksDividendsversusCapitalGainsValuationofDifferentTypesofStocksZeroGrowthConstantGrowthDifferentialGrowthMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-15Case1:
ZeroGrowthAssumethatdividendswillremainatthesamelevelforeverSincefuturecashflowsareconstant,thevalueofazerogrowthstockisthepresentvalueofaperpetuity:
McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-16Case2:
ConstantGrowthSincefuturecashflowsgrowataconstantrateforever,thevalueofaconstantgrowthstockisthepresentvalueofagrowingperpetuity:
Assumethatdividendswillgrowataconstantrate,g,forever.i.e.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-17Case3:
DifferentialGrowthAssumethatdividendswillgrowatdifferentratesintheforeseeablefutureandthenwillgrowataconstantratethereafter.TovalueaDifferentialGrowthStock,weneedto:
Estimatefuturedividendsintheforeseeablefuture.EstimatethefuturestockpricewhenthestockbecomesaConstantGrowthStock(case2).Computethetotalpresentvalueoftheestimatedfuturedividendsandfuturestockpriceattheappropriatediscountrate.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-18Case3:
DifferentialGrowthAssumethatdividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-19Case3:
DifferentialGrowthDividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter012NN+1McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,I