信用评级机构[文献翻译].doc

信用评级机构[文献翻译].doc

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一、外文原文

TheCreditRatingAgencies:

HowDidWeGetHere?

WhereShouldWeGo?

LawrenceJ.White*

"…aninsuredstatesavingsassociation…maynotacquireorretainanycorporatedebtsecuritiesnotofinvestmentgrade."12CodeofFederalRegulations§362.11

"…anyuseroftheinformationcontainedhereinshouldnotrelyonanycreditratingorotheropinioncontainedhereininmakinganyinvestmentdecision."TheusualdisclaimerthatisprintedatthebottomofStandard&Poor’screditratings

TheU.S.subprimeresidentialmortgagedebacleof2007-2008,andtheworldfinancialcrisisthathasfollowed,willsurelybeseenasadefiningeventfortheU.S.economy--andformuchoftheworldeconomyaswell--formanydecadesinthefuture.AmongthecentralplayersinthatdebaclewerethethreelargeU.S.-basedcreditratingagencies:

Moody's,Standard&Poor's（S&P）,andFitch.

Thesethreeagencies'initiallyfavorableratingswerecrucialforthesuccessfulsaleofthebondsthatweresecuritizedfromsubprimeresidentialmortgagesandotherdebtobligations.Thesaleofthesebonds,inturn,wereanimportantunderpinningfortheU.S.housingboomof1998-2006--withaself-reinforcingprice-risebubble.Whenhousepricesceasedrisinginmid2006andthenbegantodecline,thedefaultratesonthemortgagesunderlyingthesebondsrosesharply,andthoseinitialratingsprovedtobeexcessivelyoptimistic--especiallyforthebondsthatwerebasedonmortgagesthatwereoriginatedin2005and2006.Themortgagebondscollapsed,bringingdowntheU.S.financialsystemandmanyothercountries’financialsystemsaswell.

TheroleofthemajorratingagencieshasreceivedaconsiderableamountofattentioninCongressionalhearingsandinthemedia.LessattentionhasbeenpaidtothespecificsofthefinancialregulatorystructurethatpropelledthesecompaniestothecenteroftheU.S.bondmarkets–andthattherebyvirtuallyguaranteedthatwhentheydidmakemistakes,thosemistakeswouldhaveseriousconsequencesforthefinancialsector.Butanunderstandingofthatstructureisessentialforanyreasoneddebateaboutthefuturecourseofpublicpolicywithrespecttotheratingagencies.

Thispaperwillbeginbyreviewingtherolethatcreditratingagenciesplayinthebondmarkets.Wethenreviewtherelevanthistoryoftheindustry,includingthecrucialrolethattheregulationofotherfinancialinstitutionshasplayedinpromotingthecentralityofthemajorcreditratingagencieswithrespecttobondinformation.Inthediscussionofthishistory,distinctionsamongtypesoffinancialregulation–especiallybetweentheprudentialregulationoffinancialinstitutions（which,aswewillsee,requiredthemtousethespecificbondcreditworthinessinformationthatwasprovidedbythemajorratingagencies）andtheregulationoftheratingagenciesthemselves–areimportant.

Wenextofferanassessmentoftherolethatregulationplayedinenhancingtheimportanceofthethreemajorratingagenciesandtheirroleinthesubprimedebacle.Wethenconsiderthepossibleprospectiveroutesforpublicpolicywithrespecttothecreditratingindustry.Oneroutethathasbeenwidelydiscussed–andthatisembodiedinlegislationthattheObamaAdministrationproposedinJuly2009–wouldtightentheregulationoftheratingagencies,ineffortstopreventthereoccurrenceofthosedisastrousjudgmentalerrors.Asecondroutewouldreducetherequiredcentralityoftheratingagenciesandtherebyopenupthebondinformationprocessinwaythathasnotbeenpossiblesincethe1930s.

WhyCreditRatingAgencies?

Acentralconcernofanylender--includingthelender/investorsinbonds--iswhetherapotentialoractualborrowerislikelytorepaytheloan.Thisis,ofcourse,astandardproblemofasymmetricinformation:

Theborrowerislikelytoknowmoreaboutitsrepayingproclivitiesthanisthelender.Therearealsostandardsolutionstotheproblem:

Lendersusuallyspendconsiderableamountsoftimeandeffortingatheringinformationaboutthelikelycreditworthinessofprospectiveborrowers（includingtheirhistoryofloanrepaymentsandtheircurrentandprospectivefinancialcapabilities）andalsoingatheringinformationabouttheactionsofborrowersafterloanshavebeenmade.

Thecreditratingagencies（arguably）helppiercethefogofasymmetricinformationbyofferingjudgments--theyprefertheword"opinions"--aboutthecreditqualityofbondsthatareissuedbycorporations,governments（includingU.S.stateandlocalgovernments,aswellas"sovereign"issuersabroad）,and（mostrecently）mortgagesecuritizers.Thesejudgmentscomeintheformof“ratings”,whichareusuallyalettergrade.ThebestknownscaleisthatusedbyS&Pandsomeotherratingagencies:

AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,etc.,withplusesandminusesaswell.4Creditratingagenc