惠悦国际-人力资源咨询报告.ppt

惠悦国际-人力资源咨询报告.ppt

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WWW.WATSONWYATT.COMDesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworthPartner,WatsonWMay2003AgendalOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomelConsumerneedslInvestingforlifelManagingsurvivallAnewmodelIdontwanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-IwanttoachieveitbynotdyingWoodyAllenPeoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200yearsJohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000Funeralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworldslargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999ScaleofopportunitiesPeopleover65Source:

USBureauoftheCensusAnnuityversusbondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance（ieinterestelement）Optionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensionerSurvivalGuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLumpSum?

WatsonWyattPartners20000%0%TraditionalannuitiesSomeimportantquestionslHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?

lHowvaluablearetheytocustomers?

earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?

accordingtootherassets?

lHowwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?

lWillcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime?

KeyissuesfordesignThePensionerlChoice（investment）lFlexibility（income）lProtection（survival）lCommunication（tradeoffs）lFailsafeAlifetimeassetallocationmodelTraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn（equities?

）Optimumreturn（equities?

）CashBondsBondsWatsonWyattPartners2000AlifetimeassetallocationmodelProposedOptimumreturn（equities?

）Optimumreturn（equities?

）BondsRetireWatsonWyattPartners2000Effectofinvestmentgrowthonsupportableincome-malesBaseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.MortalityaspreviouslyWatsonWyattPartners2000PlanningretirementincomelTheconsumerproblemis.HowlongwillIlive?

lLifespanisadistributionnotanexpectationDistributionofdeathsRetirementatage60Mortality:

PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001WatsonWyattPartners2000DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge75nowWatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:

PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90nowWatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:

PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001Standarddeviationofdeaths,asaproportionoflifeexpectancyMortality:

PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001WatsonWyattPartners2000MethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:

Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa（excludingexpenses）Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa（excludingexpenses）Investmentreturnassumed:

（exclexpenses）Investmentreturnachieved:

7%pa（exclexpenses）Mortality:

PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund100,000Maleaged60atoutsetWatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:

spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectationProgressionofincome-annuitisedfundversusnon-annuitisedfundMortality:

PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutsetWatsonWyattPartners2000SupplierviewofmortalityguaranteeslMortalityimprovinglHowfast1%pa?

2%pa?

3%pa?

lInfuture?

lScopetoreview?

lGuaranteesare（too）expensive?

Mortalitydrift-uncertainfutureimprovementsBothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformaleaged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidenceWatsonWyattPartners2000Excesssurvivors-PMA92comparedwithPMA80Costtoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-theredzoneWatsonWyattPartners2000NewmodelInvestmentfund+InsuranceagainstsurvivalLifetimeincomemodel-benefitstatementUnitsUnitPriceValueStartofYear10,00010.00100,000AnnuityPayments（975）（10,000）SurvivalBonus2953,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice4,860EndofYear9,32010.5097,860TargetIncomeforNextYear10,000WatsonWyattPartners2000Equivalentadditionalfundgrowthresultingfrommortalitycross-subsidyMortality:

PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear2001WatsonWyattPartners2000EquivalentadditionalfundgrowthMF%pa%pa754.12.88513.18.49533.221.2NB:

PartialsurvivalprotectionpossibleFlexibleannuityreviewcycleInitialmax/minincomecalcdAnnuitantselectsincomebetweenmaxandmintonextreviewPaymentsdeductedaccordingtoannuitantrequirements/survivalcredits/investmentreturnsaddedFundbalancedeterminedatreviewMax/minincometonextreviewcalcdWatsonWyattPartners2000FlexibleincomeThecorridorIncomelevelchosenbytheannuitantannualmaximum