工程管理专业毕业论文文献翻译中英文对照管理资料.docx

工程管理专业毕业论文文献翻译中英文对照管理资料.docx

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工程管理专业毕业论文文献翻译中英文对照管理资料

河北建筑工程学院

毕业设计（论文）外文资料翻译

系别：

管理系

专业：

工程管理

班级：

管072

姓名：

学号：

2007310223

外文出处：

ProjectManager’sSpotlightonRiskManagement

KimHeldman

附件：

1、外文原文；2、外文资料翻译译文。

指导教师评语：

签字：

年月日

DefiningRiskResponsePlans

You’veidentifiedyourrisks,analyzedthemfortheirimpactsontheproject,assignedprobabilitiesandimpactvalues,determinedanexpectedvalue,andrankedtheminorder.You’vealsodeterminedwhichoftherisks,givenallthoseconditions,requireresponseplans.Thischapterdiscusseswhatriskresponseplansare,thetechniquesfordevelopingresponseplans,andhowtodocumentandwriteplansforthoserisksthathaveahighprobabilityandhighimpactontheproject.Let’sgettoit.

RiskResponsePlanning

RiskResponsePlanningistheprocessofdecidingwhatactionstotaketoeducethreats（especiallytoscheduleandcost）whiletakingadvantageofheopportunitiesotherriskspresent.

Typically,you’llwanttodevelopriskresponseplansforriskswiththepotentialforhighprobabilityandhighimpact.Itisn’tefficienttospenttimewritingresponseplansforrisksyou’vedeterminedaren’tlikelytooccurandwon’timpacttheprojectsignificantlyiftheydo.Forexample,ifI’mbuildingatouristcenterintheMojaveDesert,Iwouldn’tspendtimeonariskresponseplanforthepossibilityofrain（ItdoesrainintheMojaveanaverageofinchesperyear）,sothepossibilityexists,butit’shighlyunlikelyitwouldimpactmyproject.I’lldealwiththesetypesofrisksinthe“ContingencyPlanning”sectionalittlelaterinthischapter.

Rememberthatriskmanagementplanning,includingthedevelopmentofriskresponseplans,isn’taone-timeexercise.Asyouprogressthroughtheprojectandlearnmoreaboutpotentialriskevents,you’llreevaluatetheirimpacts,whichmayrequireachangeinstrategytodealwiththeriskandaneworrevisedresponseplan.AndeventhoughI’vefocusedprimarilyonrisksthatpreventyoufrommeetingthegoalsoftheproject,don’tforgetthatriskscanproduceopportunities.

UncertainCertainty

Onethingiscertain:

yourprojectdoeshaverisks,andifyouchoosetoignorethem,yourprojectwillhaveanuncertainoutcome.Allprojectriskiscloselylinkedwiththeavailabilityofinformationandcommunication,orthelackthereof,asI’vetalkedaboutpreviously.Themoreinformationyouhave,themorelikelyyou’reabletopredicttheriskeventanditsimpacts.

Andthebetteryou’reabletopredictriskimpacts,thebetteryou’llbeatcreatingriskresponseplans.

Whenthinkingaboutriskresponseplans,keepinmindthatriskout-comesgenerallyfallintothreecategories:

*Knownriskswithpredictableoutcomes

*Knownriskswithuncertainoutcomes

*Unknownriskswithunpredictableoutcomes

Thesearefairlystraightforward.Aknownriskissomethingyouknowhasthepotentialtohappen.Thetermpredictableoutcomesimpliesyouknowwithreasonablecertaintywhattheimpactsandoutcomesoftheriskeventswouldbeiftheyoccurred.Unpredictableoutcomesareimpactsandconsequencesoftheriskeventthataren’tfullyidentifiedorknown.Let’suseasimpleexampletoexplaineachoftheseoutcomes.You’vedecidedtopaintyourgaragedoorthisweekend.Oneriskthatcouldkeepyoufromcompletingthisprojectistheweather.Noproblem—youcruisetheInternetandcheckoutthelocalforecast,whichpredictsclearandsunnyskies,withlittlepossibilityofshowers.Youhavethemeanstolearnabouttheweather（theInternetsite）andtodeterminethecertaintyoftheimpact（a10percentchanceofshowers）.Thatmeansyouknow,withpredictablecertainty,thatthisriskhasalowchanceofoccurring.Knownriskswithuncertainoutcomesaremoredifficultbecause,well,theiroutcomesaren’tcertain.However,theamountofuncertaintycouldvary.Youmay,forexample,knowit’sgoingtorainbutnotknowwhenit’llstartorhowlongit’llcontinue.Whenyou’refacingprojectriskswithuncertainoutcomes,Irecommendlearningeverythingyoucanabouttheriskanditspossibleimpacts.（Sincetheimpactsareunpredictable,thisisn’talwayspossible.）Youshouldinterviewstakeholders,researchpastprojects,andtrytomoveasfarfromtheuncertaintyendofthespectrumasyoucan.Themoreyouknow,thebetter.

Thelastbulletlistedpreviously,unknownriskswithunpredictableout-comes,saysyoudon’tknowabouttheriskandyoudon’tknowaboutitsimpacts.It’sanunknownriskwithanunknownoutcome.Supposeyou’rehappilypaintingawayandarethree-quartersfinishedwhenaflockofgeesehappenstoflyrightoveryourhouse.Youguessedit.Anunknownriskwithanunpredictableoutcomehasoccurred.

Manyprojectdecisionsaremadewithoutbenefitofknowingallthefacts,andriskanalysisisnoexception.Risk,afterall,isprimarilyaboutuncertainty.Analyzingtheriskstellsyouaboutthepossibleoutcomesfortherisk,andtheresponseplanaddresseshowtodealwiththoseoutcomes.

Thegreateryourcertaintyoftheoutcome,theeasieritwillbetodevelopresponseplans.Forexample,ifyouknowrainisacertaintyonthedayyou’replanningonpaintingthegarage,youcandeviseresponseplansthatarefairlyprecise.Youcouldpostponethepaintingtoanotherdayandsweepthegaragefloorinstead.

Or,perhapsyouknowwithreasonablecertaintythattherainiscomingbutwon’tstartuntilearlyafternoon.Inthatcase,youcouldquicklypaintthedoorinthemorningwhilethesunisstillout（orthecloudsarerollingin）andthenflipopenthedoorsoit’sprotectedbythegarageceilinguntilitdries.

PurposeofPlanningforRisks

Thepurposeforriskplanningistodeterminethemostappropriateresponsetoreduce,control,ortakeadvantageoftheriskevent.Alongwithdeterminingtheresponse,you’llwanttomakecertainyou’rechoosingtherightstrategyfortheriskevent.Afterdeterminingthestrategytouse,you’lldevelopanactionplantoputthisstrategyintoplayshouldtheriskeventoccur.

Thesecondpurposeforriskplanningistodetermineariskowner.ItalkedaboutriskownersandtheirresponsibilityinChapter2,“IdentifyingandDocumentingRisks.”Oncetheplanisdeveloped,theriskowneristheoneheldaccountableforwatchingforrisktriggers,trackingtherisk,recommendingtheimplementationoftheresponseplanifthesituationwar-rantsit,andthenmonitoringtheeffectivenessoftheresponseplanonceit’simplemented.

Riskresponseplanningalsohasanaddedbenefit.Whenriskeventsdooccur,you’llbeabletoremaincalm,cool,andlevelheadedaboutwhattodo.

RatherthanreactinglikeourfriendNed,you’llcalmlyreachfortheresponseplandocumentandknowwhattodo.Whenyou’reinpanicmode,theobjectistoresolvetheproblemasquicklyaspossible.Thatmeansyouusuallydealwiththingsthequickestandeasiestwayyoucanthinkofjusttogeteverythingundercontrol.Butgettingimmediatecontroldoesn’tnecessarilysolvetheprobleminthelongrun.Responseplanningallowsyoudeterminethebestmethodfordealingwitharisk,whichgivesyouahigherprobabilityofmeetingyourprojectgoals.

RiskResponseTechniques

Youhaveseveralstrategiesfordealingwithriskthathelpreduceorcontroltheimpactsofriskevents.Themostcommonstrategiesareasfollows:

*Avoidance

*Transference*Mitigation

*Acceptance

*Contingencyplanning

*Independentverificationandvalidation

Eachofthesetechniqueshasitsstrengthsandweaknesses.Beforedeterminingwhichstrategytouse,makecertainyouunderstandthetypeofriskyou’redealingwith,aswellastheseverityoftherisk.You’llwanttochoosethestrategythatwillbethemosteffectiveandcostefficientfordealingwiththeriskevent.Ifitcostsyoumoretorespondtotheriskthantheconsequencesoftheriskitself,youmaywanttoconsideradifferentstrategy.

Avoidance

Youmayhavealreadyguessedthattheriskavoidancetechniqueisaboutavoidingrisk.True.Itencompassesmorethanthat,however.Riskavoidancetechniquesincludethefollowing:

*Avoidingtheriskaltogether

*Eliminatingthecauseoftheriskevent

*Changingtheprojectplantoprotecttheobjectivesfromtheriskevent

Let’slookatsomeexamplesforeachtechnique.Avoidingtheriskaltogetherimpliesthatyouknowtheoutcomesoftheriskwithrelativecertaintyandcantakestepstokeeptheriskeventfromoccurring.SupposeNedandthephoto-shootteamareheadedtotheairporttocatchtheirflighttoParis.InkeepingwithNed’susualmanner,hehasheldeveryoneuptothelastsecond.Iftheyleaveanylater,theywon’thavetimetocheckthemillionpiecesofluggageNedisbringingandgetthroughsecurityintimetocatchtheflight.Sherry,thequick-thinkingprojectmanager,decidestodoatrafficcheckbeforeleaving.ShelogsontotheInternetandfindsthere’sbeenamajoraccidentonthehighwaytheywereplanningontakingtotheairport.Toavoiddelaysandkeepthemfrommissingtheflight,Sherrydecidesonanalternateroutethatbypassestheaccidentandavoidstheriskevent.

Eliminatingthecauseoftheriskisatechniquethatworkssomethinglikethis.Sherryknowsthattheteam’sluggagelookslikeeveryotherpieceofluggagethey’relikelytoseeonanairportconveyorbelt.Theteamiscarryingsomesensitivecompanyinformationandafewpiecesofspecializedequipment.Sherrycaneliminatethecauseofthisriskbycarryingthecompanymaterialandspecializedequipmentonboardintheircarryones.

OneoftheobjectivesofthephotoassignmentistoshootpicturesofParisiansdoingeverydaytasks—strollingthroughthepark,eatingatside-walkcafés,shopping,andsoon—outsideintheopenair.A