中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译文档格式.docx

中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译文档格式.docx

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外文题目：

CHINA’SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYANDASIANTRADE

出处：

NewFinance,2009（9）

作者：

AliciaGarcia-Herrero,TuuliKoivu

原文:

Abstract

ThispapershowsempiricallythatChina’stradebalanceissensitivetofluctuationsintherealeffectiveexchangerateoftherenminbi.However,thecurrentsizeofthetradesurplusissuchthatexchangeratepolicyalonewillprobablynotbeabletoaddresstheimbalance.ThepotentialreductioninthetradesurplusresultingfromanincreaseintherenminbiexchangerateislimitedmainlybecauseChineseimportsdonotreactasexpectedtoarenminbiappreciation–theytendtofallratherthanincrease.ByestimatingbilateralimportequationsforChinaanditsmajortradepartners,wefindthatthereactionforimportsisgenerallyconfirmedforChina’stradewithSoutheastAsiancountries.ThatresultmightbeattributabletoAsia’sverticalintegration,asalargeshareofChineseimportsfromSoutheastAsiaarere-exported.WealsofindthattotalexportsfromanumberofAsiancountriesreactnegativelytoarenminbiappreciation,whichpointstoadependenceofAsiancountries’exportsonthoseofChina.

Keywords:

China,trade,exports,realexchangerate

I.Introduction

China’sshareinworldtradehasincreasedextremelyrapidlyduringthepastyears.Infact,itisalreadyoneofthelargestexportersintheworld,togetherwithGermanyandtheUnitedStates.

Untilrecently,China’stradebalancewasveryclosetozero.AccordingtoChina'

scustomsstatistics,itstradesurplusamountedtomereUSD32billion（or1.7%ofGDP）in2004（Graph1）.However,since2005thetradesurplushasballooned:

itreachednearlyUSD180billionin2006（closeto7%ofGDP）andincreasedfurtherin2007,tomorethan10%ofGDP.

Ontheonehand,Chinesepolicymakersappeartobemaintaininganartificiallylowexchangeratefortherenminbisoastoprofitfromexternaldemandandachieveamuchneededhighgrowthrate.Ontheotherhand,giventhatpricesmaystillplayonlyalimitedroleinsupplyanddemanddecisionsinChina’stransitionaleconomy,doubtshavebeenraisedthattheexchangeratecanbeaneffectivetoolinreducingthetradesurplus.

LinkedtothefirstargumentisthefactthatChinaisfacingstrongpressurefromindustrialcountriestoappreciatetherenminbi.Therealeffectiveexchangerate（REER）oftherenminbirosesteeplyfrom1994untilend-1997buttendedtodeclineafterthatuntilthemovetoamoreflexibleexchangerateregimewasannouncedinJuly2005.Thereaftertherenminbihasappreciatedsomewhatinrealterms.Thequestioniswhether–andtowhatextent–thesharpincreaseinthetradesurpluscanbeexplainedbysucharealdepreciation.

ThelargesizeofChina’stradesurplusmakestheissueimportantnotonlyforChinabutalsofortherestoftheworld.Theexistingliteratureisnotconclusive.ThelackofappropriatedataandsufficientlylongtimeserieshasdiscouragedresearchonthelinkbetweentherenminbiexchangerateandChina’strade.Sincethesummerof2003,whendiscussionsontheundervaluationoftherenminbicametotheforefront,researchonChina’sexchangeratepolicyhasblossomed,butmuchofithasfocusedonestimatingthelong-runequilibriumexchangerateforChinaorexploringwhatkindofexchangerateregimebestsuitstheChineseeconomy.Whilebothquestionsareclearlyrelevant,themosturgentissue–giventhesizeofglobalimbalances–iswhetherChinashouldusecurrencyappreciationasatooltoreduceitshugetradesurplus.

Ourpaperanalyzesthisquestionempiricallyusingcointegrationanalysis.Accordingtoourresults,arealappreciationoftherenminbiwouldreduceChina’stradesurplusinthelongrun,buttheeffectwouldbelimited.Therelativelysmallimpact–comparedwiththesizeoftheimbalance–ismainlyexplainedbythepeculiarpriceelasticitywefindforimports:

namely,Chineseimportsarenegativelyaffectedbytherenminbi’srealappreciation.Byestimatingbilateralimportequations,wefindthatimportsfromAsiancountriestendtofallbutnotthosefromothercountries.ThisapparentlycounterintuitiveresultmightwellbeexplainedbytheverticalintegrationthatcharacterisesintraregionaltradeinAsia:

ChineseimportsfromtherestofSoutheastAsiaaremostlygearedtowardsre-export.Inaddition,weshowevidencethattheSoutheastAsiancountriesdonotseemabletocompensateforthereductionintheirexportstoChinabyincreasingexportstoothercountries,astheirtotalexportsaregenerallynegativelyaffectedbytherenminbi’sappreciation.Inotherwords,exportsfromSoutheastAsiancountriesseemtobeacomplementtoexportsfromChinaratherthanasubstituteforthem.

Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2reviewstheexistingliterature.Section3describesthemethodologyandthedataused.Section4presentstheresultsonhowChina’sexportsandimportsreacttochangesintheexchangerateanddemand.InSection5,wedigdeeperintotheissueofwhyChineseimportsdonotgetaboostfromtherenminbi’sappreciation;

todoso,weestimatebilateraltradeequationswithChina’smaintradepartnersandthenanalysetheexportequationsofselectedAsiancountries.Section6concludes.

IV.ResultsforChina’simportandexportequations

Asapreliminarystep,wetestfortheorderofintegrationofthevariablesincludedinouranalysis.WeusetheaugmentedDickey-Fuller（ADF）testsfortheexistenceofaunitroot.Nearlyallvariablesarefoundtobenon-stationaryinlevelsbutstationaryinfirstdifferences.WethentestfortheexistenceofcointegrationvectorsusingtheJohansenprocedure.Wefindatleastonecointegratingvectorforeachvariablegroup.AsproposedbyPhillipsandLoretan（1991）,thepresenceofthecointegratingvectorsallowsustoestimatearegressionofthelaggeddeterminantsandtheirdifferencesthroughanon-linearleastsquaresapproach.Suchanapproachwillyieldunbiasedandconsistentestimatesofthelong-runandshort-runparameters.

Besidesregressionsonexportandimportequationsforourfullsample（1994–2005）,wealsoransuchregressionsforashorterperiod（2000–05）thatconcentratesontheperiodofWTOinfluence.Inbothcases,weconsideritimportanttodistinguishbetweenprocessedandordinarytradeand,therefore,runseparateequationsforeachoftheminthecaseofbothexportsandimports.Themaximumnumberofshort-termlagsintroducedintheequationswasthree,andweultimatelyincludedonlythosethatwerestatisticallysignificant.

ThefullresultsfortheexportequationscanbefoundinTableA2intheAppendix.16Asexpected,long-runexchangerateelasticitiesofChina’sexports–bothprocessedandordinaryarenegativeandsignificantinourfullsampleandalsoafterWTOentry.Whenappropriatelytransformed（seeTable2）,theestimatedlong-runimpactoftherealexchangerateisaround–1.3forprocessedexportsforbothperiods.Forordinaryexports,itdropsfrom–2.3measuredforthewholeperiodto–1.6forthemorerecentperiod.Ourresultsareveryclosetothosefoundbyotherauthorsusingcointegrationanalysis（–1.5fortotalexportsinLauetal（2004）and–1.3inShuandYip（2006））.Theyarealsosimilartotheestimatedexportpriceelasticitiesformajorindustrialcountries（–1.5and–1.6fortheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,respectively,accordingtoHooperetal（1998））.

Forbothordinaryandprocessedexports,thelong-runpositiveeffectofworlddemandonChineseexportsisverysmallandnotstatisticallysignificantinourfullsample,butitdoesbecomesignificantafterWTOmembership.ThatresultisinlinewiththeideathatChinawasfacingconsiderablebarrierstoprofitingfromothercountries’growthbeforeitsWTOentry.Inaddition,forthemostrecentsample,theincomeelasticityofChineseexportsisverycloseto1,asexpected.

TheestimatedcoefficientsoftheimportequationsareshowninTableA3intheAppendix.Demandfactorsseemtoplayarelativelymoderateroleinexplainingpastimports.Inthelatersubsample,importsforprocessingdoreactpositivelytoexternaldemand,measuredbyprocessedexports,anddomesticindustrialoutputincreasesordinaryimports,asexpected.

Asonewouldexpect,theFDIstockappearstohaveapositiveeffectinthelongrunbothonordinaryimportsandonimportsforprocessing.Finally,areductioninimporttariffsseemstofosterimportsforprocessinginthelongrun.19Asforexports,dummiesfortheChineseNewYearaswellasforDecemberweresignificantinmostcases.

Finally,theexchangerateelasticityofimportsisalwaysnegativeandgenerallysignificant.Theonlyexceptionisimportsforprocessinginthelattersubperiod,forwhichthenegativecoefficientontheexchangerateissignificantonlyatthe15%level.Theexchangeratehasnotonlyadirectlinktoimportsforprocessingbutalsoanindirectlinkviaprocessedexports.Inotherwords,arenminbirealappreciationtendstoreduceimportsratherthantoincreasethem.Althoughcounterintuitiveatfirstsight,suchnegativeelasticityhasalreadybeenreportedinsomeofthemostrecentliterature,suchasMarquezandSchindler（2006）.Thefindingbasicallyimpliesthatimports–evenordinaryones–aremoresensitivetotheloweringofexportsinducedbytherenminbirealappreciationthantoariseinpurchasingpower.

VI.Conclusions

Duringthepastfewyears,therehasbeengrowingdiscussionbothinChinaandininternationalforumsonthedesirabilityofarenminbiappreciation.ManyhavearguedthatexchangeratepolicywouldnotservethepurposeofreducingChina’slargetradesurplus.Thispapershows