耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture03TranscriptWord下载.docx

耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture03TranscriptWord下载.docx

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bec,whichisthebigwealthmanagementfundfortheProvinceofQuebec.ImetalotofpeoplethereandIneveroncegottheideathatanyonetherewasevilorgrasping.Ithinktheyhaveamoralpurpose,whichistopreservethelivelihoodsofthepeopleoftheProvinceofQuebec.Yougetaverydifferentviewofthingswhenyoumeetthepeople.Ithinkourentertainmentindustrylikestomakemoviesaboutpeopleinfinance,buttheyareinevitablyportrayedasevilandIdon'

tknowwhythatis.Idon'

tthinktherehaseverbeenamajormotionpictureaboutafinancialpersonwhoendedupaphilanthropist.Whyisthat?

Ijustdon'

t--peopledon'

tlike--peoplewouldratherhate--Idon'

tknowwhyit'

ssomething--itwouldn'

tbeagoodmovietheme,wouldit?

Anyway,youhavetoovercomethese--youhavetothinkthatifyougointothefieldyouwouldprobably--Ifyou'

resuccessful--youwouldprobablyendupasaphilanthropist;

butnomoviewillbemadeaboutyourlifeandyoumayencounterhostilitythewholeway.It'

sespeciallytruerightnowwiththesubprimecrisis.Peopleareblamingthefinancialcommunityforourtroublesnow.Itistruethatwe'

reseeingsomepeoplethrownoutoftheirhouses,insomecases,becauseofsomeratherquestionablefinancialpracticesthatgotpeopleintomortgagesthattheyshouldn'

thavegotteninto.Butoverall,Ithinkthatthepeopleinthisfieldaregoodpeople.

Inthelastlecture,Italkedabout–Inthesecondlecture,Italkedaboutthepoolingofrisksandthebasicthemeofthatlecturewasthatwenowhaveamathematicaltheory,probabilitytheory.Whenyoulookatthistheory,yourealizethatitsuggestsaveryimportanttechnologyforimprovinghumanwelfareandthatis:

byspreadingrisks.Theeconomy,andtechnology,andtheweather,andallsortsoffactorscreaterisks.But,therealtechnologyis--thetechnologythatworkstoeliminaterisksistospreadthemout,topoolthem,tosharethemamongmanydifferentpeople.So,theideathattheoristssuggest--anditmaybeunreachable--buttheperfectfinancialsystemwouldhaveallofourriskspooledcompletely.Thatis,nobodysuffersalone.Ifanythinghappenstomeinmylivelihood,thenit'

sspreadoutovereverybodyandeverybodymeansthewholeworld.Whateverhappenstome,whenit'

sspreadoutoversixbillionpluspeople,itendsupdividedbysixbillionanditbecomesunobservable.Itbecomessosmallthatit'

smeaninglessandthat'

stheideal.That'

swhat,inprinciple,wecandoandwhatIthinkisthemostimportantconceptinfinance--thisconceptofriskpooling.Weliveinaworldwherepeoplesufferallkindsofmisfortunes.Ofcourse,wecantrytogetridofthesemisfortunes.Wecandoresearchondiseasepreventionandweathermodificationandglobalwarming.Wecandoresearchonallthesethings,butthere'

sanothertechnology,whichisextremelyimportant.Thatis,evenleavingtherisksastheyareandjustsharingthembetter.So,I'

llbetalkingmoreaboutthis.

Theproblemisthatwhiletheprincipleofrisk-sharingisverysimpleandobviousthepracticerequirestechnology.It'

sjustlikeyoucouldsaysomeoftheprinciplesofmechanicsareveryobvious,buttomakeanenginethatoperatesintermsofthoseprinciplesisnotobvious.

WhatIwanttotalktodayaboutiswhatIcalltechnologyinfinance.I'

llpresentmyviewofthesituation,butmaybeit'

saratheridiosyncraticviewthatIhave.But,Ithink--It'

snotsomuchidiosyncratic,butit'

sadifferentemphasisthatIputforth.WhatIwanttotalk–Therearereallythreethemestotoday'

slecture:

arisktheme,aframingtheme,andaninventiontheme.Iwanttogooverthehistoryofriskmanagementandthroughthesethreethemes.

Thefirstoneis,Imightsay,along-termrisktheme.Letmegooverthesethreethemes.Thelong-termrisksaredominantinourlives.Bythat,Imeanthateveryone'

slifeisasequenceofshocksthataccumulateoveryourlife.I'

mtalkingabouteconomicshocks.Whenyoustartoutyoung--We'

reunequalatbirth,ofcourse,becauseofourparentsandtheadvantageswehave,butrelativelyequalatayoungage.Aseachyeargoesby,youaccumulateeconomicshocks,shockstoyourhumancapital,shockstowhatyouownasyougetolder.Youstart--Yourhumancapitalisyourabilitytodothingsandyourknowledge,whichiswhatyouhavetosellinthemarketplace.Asyougetolder,yourhumancapitalevolvesandithasitsupsanddownsasyouageandyoustartswitchingfromhumancapitaltootherformsofcapital.Inotherwords,youstartsavingandyouownstocksandbonds,andrealestate,andotherthings.Eachofthesesuffersasequenceofshocksthatcumulateoveryourlifetime,soinequalitygetsworseandworseaspeopleage.Itisatitsworstafterretirementwhenyouarenolonger--you'

veexhaustedyourhumancapitalandyou'

relivingoffofalltheaccumulatedphysicalcapital.That'

sthelifecyclestory.

There'

sgreatinequalityamongtheelderlyandthat'

saproblem.Someofthemarelivingverybadlyandothersarelivingwithgreatcomfort.That'

swhatfinanceisabout.It'

sreallyaboutpeople.Wedon'

tcareatallaboutcorporations--weshouldmakethatclear--exceptastheycontributetoindividualwelfare.Idon'

tcarewhathappenstoCitigrouporIBM,exceptforthefactthatthereareallthosestockholdersoutthereandthey'

reofalldifferentsituations.Someofthemareabsolutelydependentontheirholdingofthesestocks.That'

swhatwehavetothinkaboutandit'

salong-termproblem.

Theproblemwithlong-termrisks,also,isthatanythingthatwedotomitigatetheseriskscreatesmoralhazard.That'

sanotherfundamentalthemeoffinance.Whatismoralhazard?

That'

satermthatfirstenteredtheEnglishlanguagesometimeinthemid-nineteenthcentury,butofcoursetheconceptgoesearlier.Moralhazardoccurswhenariskmanagementinstitutionincentivizesyoutodobadbehavior--toshowbadbehavior.Theclassicexampleofmoralhazardiswithfireinsurance.IgetfireinsuranceonmyhouseandsoIbehavebadly:

Ideliberatelyburnthehousedowntocollectonmyinsurance.That'

smoralhazard;

butit'

snotuniquetothat,it'

sallovertheplace.Whenyoumanagerisks,youcreatemoralhazard.That'

swhyweneedinventionandtheoryinfinancetominimizethat.

Thesecondthemeforthislectureisaboutframing.BythatImeanpsychologicalframing,andtherearemanypsychologistswhotalkaboutthis,butnotablyDanielKahnemanandAmosTversky."

Psychologicalframing"

meansthetendencyforpeopletoviewthingsinadistortedwaydependingonhowthey'

represented.IfIpresentthingsinoneframe,thenyouwouldreactoneway.IfIpresentthesamethinginanothercontextorbackgroundorenvironment,thenyoureactverydifferently.Iwillexpandonthisinaminute.

Thethirdthemeistheinventionthemeofthislecture.Thatis--Imentionedthisbefore,butIwanttoexpandonitinthislecture--thatthehistoryoffinanceisthehistoryofinventionjustasmuchasitisinotherfields,notablyengineering.TheideathatIwanttodevelopisthatthehistoryoffinanceisahistoryofdiscreteinventions.Non-obviousideaswereconceivedoftosolvetheseproblemsoflong-termrisksandtogetaroundthepsychologicalbarriersimposedbyframingbiasesandpsychologicalbiases,inordertoallowpeopletoactuallymanagetheriskandtogetaroundmoralhazard.It'

sadifficultthingtodothesethingsandthat'

swhyweneedinvention.

Anotherthingisthat,whenonceaninventionismade,ittendstobecopiedallovertheworld.So,thehistoryoffinanceislargelyahistoryofcopying.That'

swhatyouhavetodo.Youmayhavetoadaptittoaparticularenvironment,butbasicallyitiscopyingotherideas.Somepeopleinless-developedcountriesfeeluncomfortablethattheyarejustslavishlycopyingother,moreadvancedcountries;

but,theyhavetorecognizethatiswhateverybodyhasbeendoingallalong.Wecopythegoodideasandintheprocessweadjustthemandmakethemalittlebitbetter.Newideascancomefromanywhere.Thebasicthing,though,isthateverycountryhastotaketheinsightsthathavebeendevelopedaroundtheworld.

Letmecomebacknow--Iwanttogothroughthesethreethemes.Letmestartwiththelong-termrisktheme.Iwanttostartwithanarticle,which--mentionanarticlebyBackus,Kydland,andKehoe--actuallyBackus,Kehoe,andKydland,threeeconomists[DavidK.Backus,PatrickJ.KehoeandFinnE.Kydland,"

InternationalRealBusinessCycles,"

JournalofPoliticalEconomy,100（4）:

745-775,August1992].Oneofthese,thelastofthethree,FinnKydland,wontheNobelPrizeafewyearsago.Inthisarticle,theytalkedaboutthecorrelationofconsumptionaroundtheworld.Whatisconsumption?

It'

stheamountthatpeoplespendonconsumptiongoods,thingsthatyoubuyforyourcurrentuse,likefood,shelter,clothing,etc.Everycountrycomputesanestimateofhowmuchisspenteachyearonconsumptionbythepeoplewholiveinthec