专业外文文献翻译.doc

专业外文文献翻译.doc

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英文原文

TheRenminbi’sDollarPegatTheCrossroads

Inthefaceofhugebalanceofpaymentssurplusesandinternalinflationarypressures,Chinahasbeeninaclassicconflictbetweeninternalandexternalbalanceunderitsdollarcurrency-basketpeg.Overthelongerterm,China’slarge,modernizing,anddiverseeconomywillneedexchangerateflexibilityand,eventually,convertibilitywithopencapitalmarkets.AfeasibleandattractiveexitstrategyfromtheessentiallyfixedRMBexchangeratewouldbeatwo-stageapproach,consistentwiththestepsalreadytakensinceJuly2005,butgoingbeyondthem.First,establishalimitedtradingbandfortheRMBrelativetoabasketofmajortradingpartnercurrencies.SetthebandsothatitallowssomeinitialrevaluationoftheRMBagainstthedollar,managethebasketratewithinthebandifnecessary,andwidenthebandovertimeasdomesticforeignexchangemarketsdevelop.Second,putonholdadhocmeasuresoffinancialaccountliberalization.TheywillbelesshelpfulforrelievingexchangeratepressuresoncetheRMBbasketrateisallowedtomoveflexiblywithinaband,andtheyarebestpostponeduntildomesticforeignexchangemarketsdevelopfurther,theexchangerateisfullyflexible,andthedomesticfinancialsystemhasbeenstrengthenedandplacedonamarket-orientedbasis.

From1997untilJuly21,2005,theChineseauthoritiespeggedtherenminbi（RMB）priceoftheUnitedStatesdollarwithinanarrowrange.OnJuly21,2005,China’sauthoritiesmovedtoanadjustablebasketpegagainstthedollar,witharevaluationofthecentralRMB/$rateof2.1percentrelativetothepriorcentralrateofRMB8.28perdollar.

VerynotablyinviewoftheclaimsthatChina’sexchangeratepolicyisdictatedbytheimperativeofmaintaininganundervaluedcurrency,theauthoritiesresistedsubstantialdevaluationpressures,atthecostofsomedeflation,duringtheAsiancrisisperiodstartingin1997.Forsometimenowthesituationhasbeenreversed,withstrongrevaluationpressures,speculativecapitalinflows,andgatheringinflationarymomentumintheeconomy.Theabilitytoresistspeculativepressurescomesfromthemaintenanceofrestrictionsonprivatecapitalflows,especiallyinflows,aswellasfromadministrativecontrolsusefulinrestraininginflation.

Nonetheless,“hotmoney”inflowshavehelpedswellChina’sforeignreservesimmenselyinrecentyears.PriortoJuly21,2005,mostobservers,andindeedtheChinesegovernmentitself,acknowledgedthatChina’sexchange-ratearrangementswereunsustainableandundesirableasalong-termfoundationforresponding,withoutdisruptiveepisodesofinflationordeflation,toinevitablereal-sideshocks,aswellastosecularchangesintheeconomysuchasrealappreciationduetoBalassa-Samuelsoneffects.Atthetimeofunification,theparallelratealreadystoodatadepreciatedlevelrelativetotheofficialrate.Revaluation-cum-“flexation”isaresponsetothesituation,includingtheexternaltradepressuresithadgenerated,butleavesquestionsabouthowflexibilitywillbeexploitedinthefuture.

Sofar,eventhe±0.3percentmarginsofRMB/$flexibilitythatexisthavenotbeenutilizedfully.Furthermore,capitalmarketsthatareopentotheworldseemaprerequisiteforamodernhigh-incomeeconomysuchasChinaseekseventuallytobecome.Theissuesconcernthetransition.howmightChinabestmovetowardagenuinelymoreflexibleexchange-rateregime.Andhowmightitbestdismantlecapitalcontrols.Andhowmightitoptimallysequencethesetwoconceptuallydistinctliberalizationinitiatives.

InthefollowingpagesIhavefourgoals.First,toprovideabriefoverviewofdevelopmentsinChina’srealexchangerate,externalaccounts,andinflation,therebyfillinginsomeconcomitantsofthenominalexchangeratetrajectoryinFigure.Second,todrawparallelswiththeexperienceofGermany（stilltheworld’spremierexporter）duringtheBrettonWoodsera.Third,todiscusstherathersuccessfulexperiencesofChileandIsraelintransitingfrompeggedexchangerateswithcapitalcontrolstofloatingrateswithfinancialopening.Fourthandfinally,tosketchablueprintforgraduallyflexingtheRMB’sexchangerateinadvanceofcapital-accountliberalization.AfeatureofthebasketsystemisthatinterventioninsupportofthebasketratecouldstillbecarriedoutentirelyintheRMB/$market.ThereasonisthatthebasketcanbeimplementedentirelythroughavariableRMB/$exchangeratetarget.Asatechnicalmatter,thebandcouldberedefinedeachmorningusingtheexchangedollarratesprevailingearlierthatdayintheTokyomarkets.Oritcouldbeupdatedmorefrequently.Thedecisiontopegtoabasketisalsoseparableinprinciplefromthedecisiononthedenominationofforeign-currencyreserves.Diversificationofofficialreservesinlinewith