美赛论文文档格式.docx
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Codenumberofthe
-thcourseoftheactualdistribution,
Unitbooknumbersalesofthe
-thcourse,
Theaffiliatedbibliographyof
-Thcoursemeanprice,
BookNumberofthe
-Thcoursesdeclared,
BookNumberpredictedin2006assignedthe
-Thcourse,
Themaximumbooknumberofthe
-thbranchcanbedoneperyear,
Strongcourselimitthepercentageoffloatingupward
Notstrongcourselimitthepercentageoffloatingupward
Allcourseslimitthepercentageoffloatingupward
Theminimumvalueofthe
-Thbranchcodebelongscourses
Themaximumvalueofthe
4.Analysisoftheproblem
Becauseastrongcurriculumsupport,humanresources,marketinformationandproductionplanningapplicationanalysissubmittedbybureauswillaffecttheallocationofBookNumbers,inordertoobtaintheoptimalallocationscheme,wemustanalyzethevariousfactors:
（1）Astrongcurriculumandastrongbranchselection:
Strongcurriculumreferstomarketshareandfoursatisfactionscoresofcustomersareoutstandingcourses.Throughthesefivefactorsthatcanmakeacomprehensiveevaluationofthe72courses.Ononeyearofdataisconcerned,youcanextractmarketshareaswellassatisfactionscoresforeachcourse,withreferencetothefive-levelsatisfactionscores,onmarketshareandscoringfivepoints,alloftheabovefivecoursesfactorsastheselectioncriteriaforthemaximumstrengthofthecourse,accordingtothevariouscoursesofthestandardMahalanobisdistanceascendingsortorder,andthendeterminestrongprogramsbytheproportion.Foreachbranch,theaveragevalueofeachfactorforeachcourseasthebranchcorrespondingtothebureauscoringfactorsdeterminetheselectioncriteriainthesameway,makingastrongbranchsortedbydeterminingtheratio.
（2）HumanResourcesAnalysis:
Byanalyzingninebureaushumanresourcesdetailgiventopic,youcangettheactualworkingcapacityofeachbranch,whichistheBookNumberthatcanbeuptoayeartocomplete.WhencombinedwithatotalallocationofsocialBookNumberensurethatatleastgivehalfthenumberofapplicationsforeachbranchofthisprinciplecaninitiallygetBureauBookNumberassignedtoeachbranchoftheupperandlowerlimits.
（3）MarketInformationAnalysis:
Duetothedifferentnumberofthesamecoursethepriceisnotverydifferent,aswellasthesalesaresimilar,wecancalculatethesalesofeachcourseunitbooknumber.Andaccordinglypredictsalesof2006unitseachcourseISBN,Andaccordinglypredictsalesof2006unitseachcourseISBN,multipliedbytheaveragepricecourses,wegettheunitsalesofthecourseISBN.Sincetextbookpublisherstokeepalltheprofitsforthesamepriceatthetime,andtodevelopteachingmaterialspriceonthisprinciple,sothetotalprofitisequivalenttothetotalsalesofthelargestmaximum.Whenforecasting,becauselessdata,inordertoensuretheaccuracyofprediction,weusethegrayforecastingmodeltopredict.
（4）Onvariouscourses,itsactualsalesandplannedsalesratioreflectstheaccuracyISBNdistributionplan,theaveragestatisticalaccuracyofeachcoursebymultiplyingthecourseofeachofthe2006declarationofISBNnumber,youcanpredicttheISBNnumberassignedtothecoursein2006.StrongprogramslowerlimitthenumberofactuallyallocatedISBNshouldfloatuponthebasisofapercentageofforecastingnumber
thelowerlimitofthenon-strongcoursesshouldbeonthebasisof
floatdown.Consideringtheabovefourareas,forastrongbranch,weuseanintegerprogramming[1]tobuildmodelI;
forastrongcurriculum,weusetheminimumcostmaximumflowtobuild[2]themodelingII.
5.Establishandsolvethemodel
5.1Preparemodel
5.1.1Astrongcurriculumandastrongbranchselection
（1）Predictedin2006themarketshareofeachcourse
UsingStatisticsofExcelsoftwarecangetA'
smarketshareovertheyearsacrossthecurriculum.Apparently,in2005themarketshareofeachcourseisthegreatestimpactonthepredicted2006marketshareofeachcourse,2004followed,andin2001withminimalimpact.Throughthecourseofeachcalendaryearstatisticsofthemarketsharetakenbytheweightedaveragemethodtopredictthe2006marketshareofeachcourse.Ihavetakentherightvalueisincreasinginarithmeticsequence,respectively0.1,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.3,whichpredictedin2006themarketshareofeachcourseareshowninTable1.Whenprocessingthedata,becausesampleproportionofbuyingoldbooksisverysmallinthedataofthesurvey,soignoreitsimpactonthemarketshare.
Eachcourseofthemarketshareforecastin2006
CourseCode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Share
0.265
0.132
0.147
0.123
0.064
0.096
0.26
0.034
0.236
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
0.279
0.649
0.479
0.108
0.067
0.103
0.251
0.53
0.207
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
0.492
0.554
0.346
0.984
0.93
0.83
0.978
0.721
0.983
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
0.005
0.402
0.078
0.172
0.002
0.527
0.347
0.365
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
0.112
0.133
0.21
0.137
0.239
0.379
0.362
0.331
0.44
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
0.352
0.361
0.449
0.656
0.639
0.779
0.859
0.718
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
0.189
0.416
0.563
0.99
0.95
0.86
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
0.996
0.293
0.868
0.959
0.973
0.704
0.513
0.88
（2）satisfactionanalysis:
Forevaluationofteachingmaterials,theevaluationofthetextbookauthorauthority,theevaluationofteachingmaterialsquality,theevaluationofteachingpriceFourSatisfaction,usingExcelsoftwarestatisticalfunctionstogettheaverageof2001to2005bibliographyofallthevariousprograms,anddatare-weightedaverageforeachyear,withaweightingfactor
（1）,finallygetFourSatisfactionscoreof72courses.
（3）Consideringthemarketshareandsatisfactioncompositescore
Analogsatisfactionrating,youcanscoretopredictedthe2006marketshareofeachcoursebibliographyscore,theshareofminimumtomaximumrange
weredividedintofivesections,togetmarketshareintherangeoffivelevels:
One:
;
Two:
Three:
Four:
Five:
.
Accordingto5-pointscale:
fivebeingtheA,foursaidtwopoints,threepoints,saidthree,twoofsaidfour,1meansfive.
Inaccordancewithabovegraderangetoscoreforpredicted2006marketshareofeachcoursebibliography,combinedwithfoursatisfactionscoresin
（2）take72coursesscoresandthemaxinfivefactorsofmarketsharescoreasastandardscore,SeparatelycalculatedtheMahalanobisdistancebetweenthescoreofeachcourseandit,bydistancefromsmalltolargesort,rankingdrawnstrongcurriculumSortTable2.
Table2Strongcurriculumcompositescoresort
Rank
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