The development prospects of Chinas civil airconditioningWord格式.docx

The development prospects of Chinas civil airconditioningWord格式.docx

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Inthispaper,scenarioanalysis,onChina’scivilair-conditioningin2020madethedevelopmentprospectsofpredictiveanalysis.Pointedoutthatthedemandforairconditioningandenergyconstraintsofahugegapbetweentheproposed“opensource,cost-cutting”approach.

Keywords:

civilair-conditioningthedevelopmentprospectsoftheenergy

OneofChina’smacro-economicandurbandevelopmentscenariosarecivil

ShiliuDaPartyclearlyputforwardtheconcretedeploymentofChina’sthirdstrategicobjective,namely,in2020,“buildingamoderatelyprosperoussocietyinoptimizingthestructureandefficiency,basedon2000grossdomesticproductquadrupled,basicallyaccomplishindustrialization.“

ThisambitiousdevelopmentgoalsofChina’seconomyisboundtohaveaprofoundimpactatalllevels.

1.1EconomicStructure

Inthenext15years,firstproductionisexpectedtovalueaddedinthediminishingproportionofGDP;

therapidgrowthofthetertiaryindustry,secondaryindustryshareofvalueaddedinGDPgrowthwilloccurbefore,afterloweringtrend.ThefirstproductionisexpectedtovalueaddedinGDP,theproportionin2020was13.6%;

thesecondaryindustryintheGDP,theproportionin2020was42.9~46%;

thetertiaryindustryinGDP,theproportionin202041%~43%in205051%~56%.

1.2ofGDPinnominalexchangerate

AccordingtoChina’soveralleconomicstrategicplanning,by2010,China’sGDPreached17.88trillionyuanRMB,2020reached26.82trillionyuanRMB.Theaverageannualgrowthrateoftwophases,respectively7.1%and4.14%.Shouldbenotedthatinrecentyears,drivenbyexcessiveinvestmentinmakingsuper-normalgrowthincapitalformation,aseriesofaccumulatedgraduallyexposedtheinefficiency,duplicationofinvalidformofcapital,alargenumberofinventorybacklog,theinternationalanti-dumpingonChina’ssuppressionofenterprises,corporateprofitabilitydecline,andtherapiddevelopmentofresourcesandenvironmentaldestruction,etc.allcontributetotheeconomicgrowthratewillshowadownwardtrendoftheimportantfactors.

1.3Population

ThetotalscaleofChina’spopulationisexpectedasfollows:

in2010approximately1.4billion;

in2020around1.5billion.

1.4PercapitaGDP

TheRMBexchangeratepolicyisbeingadjustedisnolongerpegtheyuanU.S.dollars.Therefore,China’sGDPinthefutureinaccordancewithinternationallyacceptedstatisticalnecessarilypurchasingpowerparity（PPP）standard.IfyoupresstheWorldBankstatistics,China’s2003percapitaGDP（byPPPterms）hadreached4990U.S.dollars,surpassingtheyeartheleveloflow-andmiddle-incomecountries（4320U.S.dollars）,whichisclearlyovervalued.Ifreferencetomiddle-incomecountries,percapitaGDPpurchasingpowerparitycalculationsthanthenominalexchangeratecalculatedfromtheratiowas1.9timeshigherthanin2010and2020China’spercapitaGDPwillreachrespectively2932and4104U.S.dollarsin2020,Chinawillentertheranksofmoderatelydevelopedcountries.

1.5Urbanization

ThelevelofurbanizationinChinafrom1985to22%in2004to41.8%paceofurbanizationistheworldtwiceoverthesameperiod.However,in2000theaverageworldlevelofurbanizationhasalreadyreached47%,ofwhich50%ofmedium-developedcountries,high-incomecountries79%.Theprocessofurbanizationfromtheworld’spointofview,urbanizationfrom36%to60%ofacceleratedphase,therefore,China’surbanizationratewillbeimproved.Ifyoupressfrom1985to2004theaveragegrowthbetweentheurbanizationrate,in2020morethan50%ofChina’surbanizationrate.AccordingtotheStateCouncilDevelopmentResearchCenter2020,whenChina’surbanizationrateisabout60%（58.7%）.

1.6HousingConstruction

Asoftheendof2003,housingconstructionincitiesandtownsatotalareaof14.091billionm2,ofwhich8.911billionofresidentialflooraream2,totalareaofhousingconstructionaccountedfor63.24%.

AccordingtotheMinistryofConstructiontolivewell-offsocietyobjectives,canbeanalyzedtobe2010and2020oftheconstructionarea.

Table1China’surbanhousingandpublicbuildingsinthedevelopmentofprediction

Thelevelofurbanization%

Urbanpopulationof100million

Urbanpercapitahousingfloorspacem2

Thetotalareaofurbanresidentialbuildings100millionm2

Urbanpercapitaflooraream2

Thetotalareaof100millionurbanpublicbuildingsm2

Thetotalareaof100millionm2ofurbancivil

Table1intheforecastfortheyear2020isoneofthelowerlimitsetbyurbanizationscenarios;

whilePrediction2isbasedonthehighurbanizationratelimitandawell-offlivinggoalsettingscenarios.

2Chineseairconditioningmarketdemandanddevelopmentprospect

2.1Developmentofresidentialair-conditioning

RoomairconditionerproductioninChinastartedin1978.1991~1993enteredtheinitialstage,from1994to1996,enteredarapiddevelopmentperiod,from1997to2003intothehighstageofdevelopment,productionanaverageannualincreaseof24~59%.Aftermorethantenyearsofdevelopment,China’sroomairconditionerindustryalreadyhasmorethanhalfoftheworld’stotaloutputofproductionscale,tobecometrulytheworld’sfirstroomairconditionerproducer.

AccordingtotheJapaneseair-conditioningheatingandrefrigerationnews（JARN）predictsthatin2004theworld’saroomairconditioner（RAC）andcell-typeairconditioners（PAC）ofthetotaldemandfor56millionunits,ofwhichChinais20millionunits,accountingfor36%ofthe.AscanbeseenfromFigure2,China’soutputofacountryhasexceededtheactualneedsoftheworld,China’sdomesticair-conditionerhasexcesscapacity.

Figure2showsthattheproductionofroomair-conditionersinChinaanannualrateof40.5%.TheFigure3reflectsthecityforevery100householdsinChinahaveavolumeofroomair-conditionergrowth.In2002,only10provincesandmunicipalitiesofChina’sairconditionerhasavolumeof100familiesformorethan50,butby2003,itincreasedto16provincesandcities.Growthisveryfierce（seeFigure3）,buttheaverageannualgrowthrateof27.04%,ornotkeepupwithproductiongrowth.

Thestudyfoundthattheownerofthefamilyroomair-conditionerspercapitaGDPgrowthinvolumeandhaveagoodlinearcorrelation.Figure4isawriterinShanghaioftheanalysisofthecorrelation.WhenthepercapitaGDPreached4,000to4,500dollars,theresidentialair-conditioningtobeuniversal（uptoanexistingdwellingunits）.

Chinaistheworld’slargestcountryintheheatwiththeeasternregionandtheworld,comparedtothesamelatitude,summeroverheatingandwintercolder.Inourdenselypopulatedcity,indoorneedbothwinterheating,summercoolingneeds.Well-offsocietyinChinaforresidential,willsatisfytheneedtoachievetothecomfortablesurvivalmode.Agoodindoorthermalenvironmentisanimportantpartofimprovingthequalityoflife.Therefore,thepopularityofresidentialair-conditioningisaninevitabletrend.

2.2TheDevelopmentofcentralairconditioning

AccordingtoChinaRefrigerationandAirConditioningIndustryAssociationstatistics,from2000to2003Nationalrefrigerationandairconditioningindustry,averageannualeconomicgrowthrateishigherthanChina’sGDPgrowthrate.

Table22000-2003hostcountrycentralairconditioningproduction（units/sets）

Piston-typewaterchiller

ScrewChillers

Centrifugalchillers

Steam/hotwater-typelithiumbromidechiller

Direct-firedlithiumbromidechiller

Air-cooledchillerunit

Householdcentralairconditioningunitwithhotandcoldwater

Total

Averageannualgrowthrateof

Note:

The2003air-cooledchillerunitstatisticsgroupedinascrew-type,piston-stylehotandcoldwater,centralair-conditioningunitandindoor-stylehotandcoldwaterunitthreestatistics.

Combinedair-conditioningunit

Newairhandlingunits

FanCoilUnit

Table32000-2003centralizedair-conditioningsystemterminalequipment,thenationalproduction（units/sets）

AccordingtohistoricalstatisticsofChinaRefrigerationandAirConditioningIndustryAssociationsurveydataandsummaryofkeymanufacturingenterprises,in1993and2003China’spower-drivenchillersyieldanaverageannualgrowthrateof13.4%,absorptionchillersyieldanaverageannualgrowthrateof16.2%,includingdirect-firedmachineproducesanaveragegrowthrateofashighas18.7%,higherthantheelectric-drivenchillersoutputgrowthrates.Overall,from1993to2003thegrowthoftotaloutputofChina’srefrigerationunitsfasterthaneconomicgrowth.

2.3Forecastofthedevelopmentofresidentialair-conditioning

Accordingtotheauthor’sanalysisofair-conditionersper100urbanresidentshaveavolumeandpercapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidentsandpercapitaelectricityconsumptionoflifeofthesetwofactorsshowedapositivecorrelation,thecorrelationcoefficient0.9928and0.9681,respectively.Therefore,air-conditionersper100urbanresidentsinpossessionasthedependentvariable,percapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidentsandpercapitaelectricityconsumptionoflife,astwoindependentvariables,youcancreatemultiplelinearregressionmodel.Whichcanbein2010forevery100residentsinChina’surbanairconditionerhasacapacityof125.8