智者投资箴言英文Word文档格式.docx

智者投资箴言英文Word文档格式.docx

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Well,thefirstruleisthatyoucan'

treallyknowanythingifyoujustrememberisolatedfactsandtryandbang'

emback.Ifthefactsdon'

thangtogetheronalatticeworkoftheory,youdon'

thavetheminausableform.

You'

vegottohavemodelsinyourhead.Andyou'

vegottoarrayyourexperiencebothvicariousanddirectonthislatticeworkofmodels.Youmayhavenoticedstudentswhojusttrytorememberandpoundbackwhatisremembered.Well,theyfailinschoolandinlife.You'

vegottohangexperienceonalatticeworkofmodelsinyourhead.

Whatarethemodels?

Well,thefirstruleisthatyou'

vegottohavemultiplemodelsbecauseifyoujusthaveoneortwothatyou'

reusing,thenatureofhumanpsychologyissuchthatyou'

lltorturerealitysothatitfitsyourmodels,oratleastyou'

llthinkitdoes.Youbecometheequivalentofachiropractorwho,ofcourse,isthegreatboobinmedicine.

It'

sliketheoldsaying,"

Tothemanwithonlyahammer,everyproblemlookslikeanail."

Andofcourse,that'

sthewaythechiropractorgoesaboutpracticingmedicine.Butthat'

saperfectlydisastrouswaytothinkandaperfectlydisastrouswaytooperateintheworld.Soyou'

vegottohavemultiplemodels.

Andthemodelshavetocomefrommultipledisciplinesbecauseallthewisdomoftheworldisnottobefoundinonelittleacademicdepartment.That'

swhypoetryprofessors,byandlarge,aresounwiseinaworldlysense.Theydon'

thaveenoughmodelsintheirheads.Soyou'

vegottohavemodelsacrossafairarrayofdisciplines.

Youmaysay,"

MyGod,thisisalreadygettingwaytootough."

But,fortunately,itisn'

tthattoughbecause80or90importantmodelswillcarryabout90%ofthefreightinmakingyouaworldlywiseperson.And,ofthose,onlyamerehandfulreallycarryveryheavyfreight.

Solet'

sbrieflyreviewwhatkindofmodelsandtechniquesconstitutethisbasicknowledgethateverybodyhastohavebeforetheyproceedtobeingreallygoodatanarrowartlikestockpicking.

Firstthere'

smathematics.Obviously,you'

vegottobeabletohandlenumbersandquantitiesbasicarithmetic.Andthegreatusefulmodel,aftercompoundinterest,istheelementarymathofpermutationsandcombinations.Andthatwastaughtinmydayinthesophomoreyearinhighschool.Isupposebynowingreatprivateschools,it'

sprobablydowntotheeighthgradeorso.

sverysimplealgebra.ItwasallworkedoutinthecourseofaboutoneyearbetweenPascalandFermat.Theyworkeditoutcasuallyinaseriesofletters.

snotthathardtolearn.Whatishardistogetsoyouuseitroutinelyalmosteverydayofyourlife.TheFermat/Pascalsystemisdramaticallyconsonantwiththewaythattheworldworks.Andit'

sfundamentaltruth.Soyousimplyhavetohavethetechnique.

Manyeducationalinstitutions‑althoughnotnearlyenoughhaverealizedthis.AtHarvardBusinessSchool,thegreatquantitativethingthatbondsthefirstyearclasstogetheriswhattheycalldecisiontreetheory.Alltheydoistakehighschoolalgebraandapplyittoreallifeproblems.Andthestudentsloveit.They'

reamazedtofindthathighschoolalgebraworksinlife....

Byandlarge,asitworksout,peoplecan'

tnaturallyandautomaticallydothis.Ifyouunderstandelementarypsychology,thereasontheycan'

tisreallyquitesimple:

Thebasicneuralnetworkofthebrainistherethroughbroadgeneticandculturalevolution.Andit'

snotFermat/Pascal.Itusesaverycrude,shortcuttypeofapproximation.It'

sgotelementsofFermat/Pascalinit.However,it'

snotgood.

Soyouhavetolearninaveryusablewaythisveryelementarymathanduseitroutinelyinlife‑justthewayifyouwanttobecomeagolfer,youcan'

tusethenaturalswingthatbroadevolutiongaveyou.Youhavetolearntohaveacertaingripandswinginadifferentwaytorealizeyourfullpotentialasagolfer.

Ifyoudon'

tgetthiselementary,butmildlyunnatural,mathematicsofelementaryprobabilityintoyourrepertoire,thenyougothroughalonglifelikeaone‑leggedmaninanass‑kickingcontest.You'

regivingahugeadvantagetoeverybodyelse.

OneoftheadvantagesofafellowlikeBuffett,whomI'

veworkedwithalltheseyears,isthatheautomaticallythinksintermsofdecisiontreesandtheelementarymathofpermutationsandcombinations....

Obviously,youhavetoknowaccounting.It'

sthelanguageofpracticalbusinesslife.Itwasaveryusefulthingtodelivertocivilization.I'

vehearditcametocivilizationthroughVenicewhichofcoursewasoncethegreatcommercialpowerintheMediterranean.However,double-entrybookkeepingwasahellofaninvention.

Andit'

snotthathardtounderstand.

Butyouhavetoknowenoughaboutittounderstanditslimitations‑becausealthoughaccountingisthestartingplace,it'

sonlyacrudeapproximation.Andit'

snotveryhardtounderstanditslimitations.Forexample,everyonecanseethatyouhavetomoreorlessjustguessattheusefullifeofajetairplaneoranythinglikethat.Justbecauseyouexpressthedepreciationrateinneatnumbersdoesn'

tmakeitanythingyoureallyknow.

Intermsofthelimitationsofaccounting,oneofmyfavoritestoriesinvolvesaverygreatbusinessmannamedCarlBraunwhocreatedtheCFBraunEngineeringCompany.Itdesignedandbuiltoilrefineries‑whichisveryhardtodo.AndBraunwouldgetthemtocomeinontimeandnotblowupandhaveefficienciesandsoforth.Thisisamajorart.

AndBraun,beingthethoroughTeutonictypethathewas,hadanumberofquirks.Andoneofthemwasthathetookalookatstandardaccountingandthewayitwasappliedtobuildingoilrefineriesandhesaid,"

Thisisasinine."

Sohethrewallofhisaccountantsoutandhetookhisengineersandsaid,"

Now,we'

lldeviseourownsystemofaccountingtohandlethisprocess."

Andinduetime,accountingadoptedalotofCarlBraun'

snotions.Sohewasaformidablywillfulandtalentedmanwhodemonstratedboththeimportanceofaccountingandtheimportanceofknowingitslimitations.

Hehadanotherrule,frompsychology,which,ifyou'

reinterestedinwisdom,oughttobepartofyourrepertoire‑liketheelementarymathematicsofpermutationsandcombinations.

HisruleforalltheBraunCompany'

scommunicationswascalledthefiveW'

s‑youhadtotellwhowasgoingtodowhat,where,whenandwhy.AndifyouwrotealetterordirectiveintheBraunCompanytellingsomebodytodosomething,andyoudidn'

ttellhimwhy,youcouldgetfired.Infact,youwouldgetfiredifyoudidittwice.

Youmightaskwhythatissoimportant?

Well,againthat'

saruleofpsychology.Justasyouthinkbetterifyouarrayknowledgeonabunchofmodelsthatarebasicallyanswerstothequestion,why,why,why,ifyoualwaystellpeoplewhy,they'

llunderstanditbetter,they'

llconsideritmoreimportant,andthey'

llbemorelikelytocomply.Eveniftheydon'

tunderstandyourreason,they'

llbemorelikelytocomply.

Sothere'

sanironrulethatjustasyouwanttostartgettingworldlywisdombyaskingwhy,why,why,incommunicatingwithotherpeopleabouteverything,youwanttoincludewhy,why,why.Evenifit'

sobvious,it'

swisetostickinthewhy.

Whichmodelsarethemostreliable?

Well,obviously,themodelsthatcomefromhardscienceandengineeringarethemostreliablemodelsonthisEarth.Andengineeringqualitycontrol‑atleastthegutsofitthatmatterstoyouandmeandpeoplewhoarenotprofessionalengineers‑isverymuchbasedontheelementarymathematicsofFermatandPascal:

Itcostssomuchandyougetsomuchlesslikelihoodofitbreakingifyouspendthismuch.It'

sallelementaryhighschoolmathematics.AndanelaborationofthatiswhatDemingbroughttoJapanforallofthatqualitycontrolstuff.

Idon'

tthinkit'

snecessaryformostpeopletobeterriblyfacileinstatistics.Forexample,I'

mnotsurethatIcanevenpronouncethePoissondistribution.ButIknowwhataGaussianornormaldistributionlookslikeandIknowthateventsandhugeaspectsofrealityendupdistributedthatway.SoIcandoaroughcalculation.

ButifyouaskmetoworkoutsomethinginvolvingaGaussiandistributiontotendecimalpoints,Ican'

tsitdownanddothemath.I'

mlikeapokerplayerwho'

slearnedtoplayprettywellwithoutmasteringPascal.

Andbytheway,thatworkswellenough.Butyouhavetounderstandthatbell‑shapedcurveatleastroughlyaswellasIdo.

And,ofcourse,theengineeringideaofabackupsystemisaverypowerfulidea.Theengineeringideaofbreakpointsthat'

saverypowerfulmodel,too.Thenotionofacriticalmassthatcomesoutofphysicsisaverypowerfulmodel.

Allof