Forecast financial information disclosed in International Comparison英Word下载.docx
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ForecastfinancialinformationdisclosedinInternationalComparison英@#@ForecastfinancialinformationdisclosedinInternationalComparison@#@Forecastfinancialinformationoflistedcompaniesisbasedonitsproductionplansandthebusinessenvironment,opentothepublicdisclosureofareflectionofthecompany’sfuturefinancialposition,operatingresultsandotherforward-lookingfinancialinformation,isalistedcompanyanimportantpartoffinancialreporting.Predictivepublicdisclosureoffinancialinformationwillenableinvestorsandcreditorstounderstandthefutureproductionoflistedcompaniesoperatingconditionsandtoprovidereasonableandeffectiveinvestmentdecisionsinordertopreventandresolveinvestmentrisks.Fromthe20thcentury,40years,theU.S.securitiesindustryandtheaccountingprofessiononthepredictabilityoffinancialinformationonthedisclosureoftheissueofaspecialstudyofthedevelopmentofoverhalfacentury,duringwhichexperiencedbyprohibitingthepublicationtoencouragebutnotmandatorydisclosureofpolicyevolutionhasbeentoformarelativelycompletesystemofinformationdisclosure.Uptonow,allthemajorcountriesofWesterncompaniestoprovideinvestorswiththepredictabilityoffinancialinformationisverycommonphenomenon,China’slistedcompaniestodisclosemorewidelyforecastfinancialinformationwillalsobecomeaninevitabletrend.ThispaperforecastsofU.S.listedcompaniestodisclosefinancialinformationtoinspecttheprocessofinstitutionalchange,andthestatusquoofChina’scurrentfinancialprojectionsforcomparativestudydrawnfromChina’slistedcompaniesimprovethepredictabilityoffinancialinformationdisclosuresystemoftheEnlightenment.U.S.listedcompanies,thepredictabilityoffinancialinformationdisclosuresystemchangesFinancialprojectionsfortheinformationprovidedisclearlydifferentfromthehistoricalfinancialstatements,becausetheinvestmentdecision-makingwasmainlyattributabletoalistedcompany’sfuturefinancialconditionandoperatingresultsrelatedtothefinancialprojectionsispreciselytoprovidesuchinformation;@#@aslongasthequalityoffinancialforecastsandreliableinformationwillbethantheinformationprovidedinthefinancialstatementsismorepractical,thisisthepredictabilityoffinancialinformationraisond’etre.LevelofdevelopmentofU.S.capitalmarketsintheworld,secondtonone,itslistedcompaniestopubliclydisclosefinancialinformationsystemisalsoverysoundandpredictablefinancialinformationforthedisclosureofspecificlegalnormsare(RegistrationundertheSecuritiesActof1933),buttheindustryforecastfinancialinformationdisclosedinthetheoreticalunderstandingandconcretepractice,buthasexperiencedalonganddifficultprocess.Fromthe20thcentury,40years,theU.S.securitiesindustryandtheaccountingprofessionbegantopredictabilityoflistedcompaniestodisclosefinancialinformationissuesthematicstudies,butpredictedthefuturedevelopmentoftheinformationlistedcompanieswithlargeuncertainties,theU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)hasprohibitedpublicdisclosureoflistedcompanies,aseriesofforecastsoffinancialinformation.Itsroot,isinfacttheresultofavarietyoffactors:
@#@Firstofall,fromaninvestor’spointofview,becauseearlyinvestorsinthesecuritiesmarkettodeterminelackofcapacity,self-protectionisweak,issuersoftheissuanceprocessintheearlyinvestorsoftenusetheweaknessofthedevelopmentprospectsoflistedcompaniestomakeexaggeratedstatements,andsomeevendeliberatefraud,inordertodefraudinvestorsinthefunds,resultinginasharpstockmarketturbulencecausedbythesecuritiesregulatoryauthoritiesonthefinancialprojectionsbehaviorextremeviews.Second,thepredictabilityofatimewhenmanyscholarsquestionthereliabilityoffinancialaffairs,theybelievethatthepurposeofinvestmentforinvestorsistoobtainthebenefitsbeforemakinginvestmentdecisionsoftenneedtolookattheeconomicsituationoftheproposedinvestmentcompany,sothosewhoreflectthecompany’sexistinginformationonassetsandprofitsintheinvestmentdecision-makingoccupyadecisiveposition,andtheseinformationismainlymanifestedinthecompany’sfinancialstatements,sothecurrentfinancialstatementsoflistedcompaniesshouldbethecorecontentofinformationdisclosure.Others,suchasthepredictabilityoffutureearningsprojections,theinformationisnotconsidered,because‘noneofthecompany’smanagerspreparedtolosemoney,ifyoureallywanttolosemoney,theywillsoonbereplaced’,itcanbeintroducedaccordingly,thecompanymanagersprojectionsmadeinanycasewillnotbetruespeculationisnothingmorethantheirfutureholdsadesireBale.Third,theforecastfinancialinformationhaslongbeenprohibitedduemainlyliesintheattitudeofSECregulation.FromtheUnitedStatesHistorically,the‘earlyhigh-risk,immaturecapitalmarketscannotprovideagoodenvironmenttopredictbasedon’,so,SECfrombirthuntiltheearly70s,areunconditionallyprohibitedmaterialsinpubliclistedcompaniesthedisclosureoffinancialprojectionscontent.Itsregulatoryphilosophyisthattheforecastfinancialinformationofthe‘essenceisnotcredible,immatureinvestorsinmakinginvestmentdecisions,forsuchinformationwouldgiveunduereliance’.However,in1969-1979years,accordingtostockmarketchangesandthedevelopmentofpracticalneeds,SECusedalargenumberofhumanandmaterialresources,includingtherelevantprofessionalhassetuptwocommittees,adoptedaseriesofacts,includingthepublicationofanumberofmotions,extensiveTheparticipantsinthemarkettoseeksuggestionsandcomments,toconductacomprehensiveanddetailedinvestigationandverification,etc.,invitingalargenumberofexpertsandscholarsandpractitioners,heldseveralhearingsonthefinancialprojectionsfromevidentSECCodeofConductattachedgreatimportance,butalsoinstructionsonwhethertolifttheban,theU.S.securitiesindustrythereisfierceconflictofinterest.In1973,SECclearpolicydirectiontochangetheregulationtoallowthevoluntarydisclosureoflistedcompanies,thepredictabilityofthefinancialstatements,butdidnotmakeamandatoryrequirement,butdevelopedasafeharborrule(Safeharborrule)toencouragetheirvoluntarydisclosureoffinancialforecasts.Theso-calledsafeharborruleisthataslongastheforecastfinancialinformationisbasedontheprincipleofgoodfaithtoprepare,andwhenusedinthepreparationofthebasicassumptionsarereasonable,thenevenifitsnotachievethisgoal,donothavetobearlegalresponsibility.However,afterenactmentoftheAct,duetothepolicytoencouragelistedcompaniestodisclosemoreoftheiroptimisticfinancialprojections,immediatelysparkedanumberofcollectivecasesagainstlistedcompanies.Thisismainlybecausethelistedcompanyafterthepublicdisclosureoffinancialforecasts,thereportcontentissecuritiesdealers,investmentadvisersandothersecuritiesusedbyanalystsasanimportantbasisforinvestmentdecisionsintheeventofinvestmentlosses,financialprojectionswillbequestionedaccordingtoa‘reasonablehypothesis’andtheprincipleofgoodfaithbytheestablishment,andthereforeacollectivelitigationagainstpubliccompanieshavehiddenimportantfactsofthefraudcaseshavestartedtooccur.Tothisend,theFederalCourtsubsequentlyproposed‘faithfulexpressionoftheprincipleofwarningtext’,thatis,whenthepredictabilityofthefinancialstatementsmadeoropinions,ifonecomeswithacorrespondingwarningstatement,thenthepredictivestatementswouldnotconstituteasecuritiesfraud,thisprinciplehasbeenwidelyusedinU.S.DistrictCourt.From1975to1985for10years,theUnitedStatesAssociationofCertifiedPublicAccountants(AICPA)hasissueda‘financialprojectionsforthepreparationofthesystem’sGuide’,‘financialprojectionsrevealanddescription-PositionStatement75-4’,‘financialprojectionsforinspectionguide’,‘financialforecastingfeasibilityreport‘andotherfourcopiesoftheguidancedocuments.Withtheprojectionsoffinancialinformationinthesecuritiesmarketofthewidelyused,inordertofurtherstandardizethepredictabilityofpublicdisclosureoffinancialinformationin1978,SECspeciallyformulatedandpromulgateda‘forecastoperatingresultsrevealtheguidelines’and’protectionofthesafeharborrulespredict‘andotherrelevantprovisionsofthepredictabilityoftheirgenerationanddisclosureoffinancialinformationhasimportantnormativeandguidingroleoftheAICPAhaspromulgatedsincethe’financialprojectionsAccountingStandards‘(October1985)anditscorresponding’ForecastFinancialStatementsGuide‘.Itcanbesaidthat,astimegoesby,theU.S.listedcompany’sfinancialprojectionsofmanagementproceduresandauditsystemmatures,thepredictabilityoffinancialinformationisalsobetterreflectthecompany’sobjectiveofbeingabletopromoteamoreinformedinvestmentadvisoryservices,businessdevelopment,promptingthemarketpricemoreaccuratelyandreliablyreflectitsintrinsicvalue.Asaresult,thebanonfinancialforecastsfromthe30yearssincetheUnitedStatestodevelopthefederalsecuritieslaws,afteralmosthalfacenturylater,andfinallyin1979,accompaniedbyactsoffinancialprojectionsforthedevelopmentofsafeharborruleswerelifted,makingspecialprovisionsforcompliancewiththelawofthepredictabilityofDisclosureoffinancialinformationisprotected.Afterrepeatedchanges,theruleis‘1995ofthePrivateSec