国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料.docx

国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料.docx

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国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料

Chapter9—ForecastingExchangeRates

1.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresenttheuseoftoday'sforwardexchangeratetoforecastthefutureexchangerate?

a.

fundamentalforecasting.

b.

market-basedforecasting.

c.

technicalforecasting.

d.

mixedforecasting.

ANS:

BPTS:

1

2.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresentsoleuseoftoday'sspotexchangerateoftheeurotoforecasttheeuro'sfutureexchangerate?

a.

fundamentalforecasting.

b.

market-basedforecasting.

c.

technicalforecasting.

d.

mixedforecasting.

ANS:

BPTS:

1

3.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresenttheuseofrelationshipsbetweeneconomicfactorsandexchangeratemovementstoforecastthefutureexchangerate?

a.

fundamentalforecasting.

b.

market-basedforecasting.

c.

technicalforecasting.

d.

mixedforecasting.

ANS:

APTS:

1

4.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresentthesoleuseofthepatternofhistoricalcurrencyvaluesoftheeurotopredicttheeuro'sfuturecurrencyvalue?

a.

fundamentalforecasting.

b.

market-basedforecasting.

c.

technicalforecasting.

d.

mixedforecasting.

ANS:

CPTS:

1

5.Ifaparticularcurrencyisconsistentlydecliningsubstantiallyovertime,thenamarket-basedforecastwillusuallyhave:

a.

underestimatedthefutureexchangeratesovertime.

b.

overestimatedthefutureexchangeratesovertime.

c.

forecastedfutureexchangeratesaccurately.

d.

forecastedfutureexchangeratesinaccuratelybutwithoutanybiastowardconsistentunderestimatingoroverestimating.

ANS:

BPTS:

1

6.Accordingtothetext,theanalysisofcurrenciesforecastedwithuseoftheforwardratesuggeststhat:

a.

currenciesexhibitedaboutthesamemeanforecasterrorsasapercentoftherealizedvalue.

b.

theCanadiandollarcanbeforecastedbyU.S.firmswithgreateraccuracythanothercurrencies.

c.

theSwissfranccanbeforecastedbyU.S.firmswithgreateraccuracythanothercurrencies.

d.

noneoftheabove

ANS:

BPTS:

1

7.Assumethefollowinginformation:

PredictedValueof

RealizedValueof

Period

NewZealandDollar

NewZealandDollar

1

$.52

$.50

2

.54

.60

3

.44

.40

4

.51

.50

Giventhisinformation,themeanabsoluteforecasterrorasapercentageoftherealizedvalueisabout:

a.

1.5%.

b.

26%.

c.

6%.

d.

6.5%.

e.

noneoftheabove

ANS:

D

SOLUTION:

[|$.52-$.50|/$.50+|$.54-$.60|/$.60+|$.44-$.40|/$.40+|$.51-$.50|/$.50）]/4

=[.04+.10+.10+.02]/4

=.065=6.50%

PTS:

1

8.Ifitwasdeterminedthatthemovementofexchangerateswasnotrelatedtopreviousexchangeratevalues,thisimpliesthata____isnotvaluableforspeculatingonexpectedexchangeratemovements.

a.

technicalforecasttechnique

b.

fundamentalforecasttechnique

c.

alloftheabove

d.

noneoftheabove

ANS:

APTS:

1

9.Whichofthefollowingistrue?

a.

Forecasterrorscannotbenegative.

b.

Forecasterrorsarenegativewhentheforecastedrateexceedstherealizedrate.

c.

Absoluteforecasterrorsarenegativewhentheforecastedrateexceedstherealizedrate.

d.

Noneoftheabove.

ANS:

DPTS:

1

10.Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtothetext?

a.

Forecastsinrecentyearshavebeenveryaccurate.

b.

Useoftheabsoluteforecasterrorasapercentoftherealizedvalueisagoodmeasuretouseindetectingaforecastbias.

c.

Forecastingerrorsaresmallerwhenfocusedonlongertermperiods.

d.

Noneoftheabove.

ANS:

DPTS:

1

11.Afundamentalforecastthatusesmultiplevaluesoftheinfluentialfactorsisanexampleof:

a.

sensitivityanalysis.

b.

discriminantanalysis.

c.

technicalanalysis.

d.

factoranalysis.

ANS:

APTS:

1

12.Whenthevaluefromthepriorperiodofaninfluentialfactoraffectstheforecastinthefutureperiod,thisisanexampleofa（n）:

a.

laggedinput.

b.

instantaneousinput.

c.

simultaneousinput.

d.

BandC

ANS:

APTS:

1

13.Assumeaforecastingmodelusesinflationdifferentialsandinterestratedifferentialstoforecasttheexchangerate.Assumetheregressioncoefficientoftheinterestratedifferentialvariableis-.5,andthecoefficientoftheinflationdifferentialvariableis.4.Whichofthefollowingistrue?

a.

Theinterestratevariableisinverselyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectly（positively）relatedtotheinterestratevariable.

b.

Theinterestratevariableisinverselyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate.

c.

Theinterestratevariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate.

d.

Theinterestratevariable