宏观经济学课件(英文版)5PPT课件下载推荐.ppt

宏观经济学课件(英文版)5PPT课件下载推荐.ppt

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nChapter5nConditionalConvergenceandLong-RunEconomicGrowth1ConditionalConvergenceinPractice2ConditionalConvergenceinPracticenThreevariablesthatinfluencedk*:

@#@nSavingrate,s.nTechnologylevel,A.nPopulationgrowthrate,n.3ConditionalConvergenceinPracticenAbroaderviewofthetechnologylevel,A.nProductivitydependsonthedegreeofmarketefficiency.nGreaterinternationalopennesstendstoraiseproductivity.nProductivitytendstoriseifgovernmentsdobetteratmaintainingprivatepropertyrights,ifthejudicialsystemrunsmoresmoothly,andifofficialcorruptiondeclines.4RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnk/k=k（0）,k*.n（-）（+）nTheideaistomeasureanarrayofvariables,eachofwhichinfluencesacountryssteady-statecapitalperworker,k*.5RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnFirst,ifweholdfixedk*（byholdingfixedthevariablesthatinfluencek*）,thegrowthrateofcapitalperworker,k/k,shouldexhibitconvergence.nThatis,forgivenk*,alowerk（0）shouldmatchupwithahigherk/k.nSecond,anyvariablethatraisesorlowersk*shouldcorrespondinglyraiseorlowerk/kforgivenk（0）.6RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth7RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnHoldconstantalistofvariablesthatinfluencek*.nameasureofthesavingrate;@#@nthefertilityrateforthetypicalwoman（whichinfluencespopulationgrowth）;@#@nsubjectivemeasuresofmaintenanceoftheruleoflawanddemocracy;@#@nthesizeofgovernment,asgaugedbytheshareofgovernmentconsumptionexpendituresinGDP;@#@8RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthntheextentofinternationalopenness,measuredbythevolumeofexportsandimports;@#@nchangesinthetermsoftrade,whichistheratioofpricesofexportedgoodstopricesofimportedgoods;@#@nmeasuresofinvestmentineducationandhealth;@#@ntheaveragerateofinflation,whichisanindicatorofmacroeconomicpolicy.9RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnGrowthrateofrealGDPperpersonrisesinresponsetonahighersavingrate,nlowerfertility,nbettermaintenanceoftheruleoflaw,nsmallergovernmentconsumption,ngreaterinternationalopenness,nimprovementinthetermsoftrade,ngreaterquantityandqualityofeducation,nbetterhealth,andlowerinflation.10RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnDemocracyhasalesscleareffectifacountrystartsfromatotalitariansystem,increasesindemocracyseemtofavoreconomicgrowth.nHowever,afteracountryreachesamid-rangeofdemocracy（characteristicinrecentnyearsofIndonesia,Turkey,andseveralplacesinLatinAmerica）,furtherdemocratizationseemstoreducegrowth.11RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnNumerousadditionalvariablesthatinfluencegrowth.nscopeoffinancialmarkets,nthedegreeofincomeinequality,ntheextentofofficialcorruption,ntheroleofcolonialandlegalorigins,nTheintensityofreligiousparticipationandbeliefs.12ExamplesofConditionalConvergencenBy1946,Japan,Germany,France,andothercountriesinEuropesufferedsharpreductionsinphysicalcapital,whichresultedinalowstartingvalueofcapitalperworker,k（0）.nInthe1960s,manyEastAsiancountries,suchasSouthKoreaandTaiwan,werepoorand,therefore,hadlowvaluesofk（0）.13Long-RunEconomicGrowthnSolowmodeldoesnotexplainhowcapitalandrealGDPperworker,kandy,growinthelongrun.nThemodeldoesnotexplainhowrealGDPperpersongrewataround2%peryearforwelloveracenturyintheUnitedStatesandotherrichcountries.14Long-RunEconomicGrowthnWeallowfortechnologicalprogressinthesenseofcontinuinggrowthofthetechnologylevel,A.nAgrowsinanexogenousmanner.15ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnThediminishingaverageproductofcapital,y/k,playsamajorroleinthetransitionphaseoftheSolowgrowthmodel.nk/k=s（y/k）（+n）.16ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnInterpretcapitalbroadly,especiallytoincludehumancapitalintheformsofformaleducation,on-the-jobtraining,andhealth.nIncludeformsofcapitalthatareoftenownedbygovernment,suchasinfrastructurecapitalusedfortransportationandutilities.17ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnIfwedoublenotonlymachinesandbuildingsbutalsohumanandinfrastructurecapital,realGDPmayroughlydouble.nIfrawlaborisnotacriticalinputtoproduction,capitalsmarginalandaverageproductsmaynotdeclineascapitalaccumulates.18ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital19ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalny/k=A.nk/k=sA（+n）.20ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital21ExogenousTechnologicalProgressnAllowforcontinuingincreasesinA.nThisregularprocessofimprovementsinthetechnologyiscalledtechnologicalprogress.nA/A=g.22ExogenousTechnologicalProgress23ExogenousTechnologicalProgress24ExogenousTechnologicalProgress25Exogenou