贸易开放度与经济增长是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长外文翻译Word格式文档下载.docx

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是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长【外文翻译】

本科毕业论文外文翻译原文

外文题目:

Tradeopennessandeconomicgrowth:

isgrowthexport-ledorimport-led?

出处:

AppliedEconomics（2008,40,161–173）

作者:

TitusO.Awokuse

原文:

isgrowth

export-ledorimport-led?

Mostpreviousinvestigationshaveonlyfocusedontheeffectofexportexpansiononeconomicgrowthwhileignoringthepotentialgrowth-enhancingcontributionofimports.Thisarticlere-examinestherelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthinArgentina,Colombia,andPeruwithemphasisonboththeroleofexportsandimports.Grangercausalitytestsandimpulseresponsefunctionswereusedtoexaminewhethergrowthintradestimulateeconomicgrowth（orviceversa）.Theresultssuggestthatthesingularfocusofpaststudiesonexportsastheengineofgrowthmaybemisleading.Althoughthereissomeempiricalevidencesupportingexport-ledgrowth,theempiricalsupportforimport-ledgrowthhypothesisisrelativelystronger.Insomecases,thereisalsoevidenceforreversecausalityfromgrossdomesticproductgrowthtoexportsandimports.

I.Introduction

Thepotentialbenefitofoutward-orientedtradepolicyforeconomicgrowthhasbeenthesubjectofmanyempiricalinvestigations.Althoughseveralstudieshavedemonstratedthetheoreticaleconomicrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowth,disagreementsstillpersistsregardingthecausaldirectionandmagnitudeof

theeffects（Bhagwati,1978;

Edwards,1998）.Thevastmajorityofthisliteraturefocusesonthecausaleffectofexportoneconomicgrowth.Themainquestionintheexportled-growthdebateiswhetheranexport-drivenoutwardorientingtradepolicyispreferabletoaninwardorientingtradepolicyinstimulatingeconomicgrowth.Someresearchersarguethatcausalityflowsfromexportstoeconomicgrowthanddenotesthisastheexport-ledgrowth（ELG）hypothesis.Thereversecausalflowfromeconomicgrowthtoexportsistermedgrowth-ledexports（GLE）.Thethirdalternativeisthatofimport-ledgrowth（ILG）whichsuggeststhateconomicgrowthcouldbedrivenprimarilybygrowthinimports.

Despitethepotentiallyimportantroleofimportsandimportcompetition,relativelylittleattentionhasbeendevotedtothecausalrelationshipbetweenimportsandeconomicgrowth.Moststudiesontheeffectoftradeopennessongrowthhaveprimarilyfocusedontheroleofexportsandhavemostlyignoredthecontributionofimports.However,somerecentstudieshaveshownthatwithoutcontrollingforimports,anyobservedcausallinkbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthmaybespuriousandthusmisleading（Esfahani,1991;

Riezmanetal.,1996;

ThangaveluandRajaguru,2004）.Importsmaybeveryimportanttoeconomicgrowthsincesignificantexportgrowthisusuallyassociatedwithrapidimportgrowth.Furthermore,theexport-growthanalysesthatexcludeimportsmaybesubjecttotheclassicomittedvariableproblem.Thefundamentalcausalrelationshipmayactuallybebetweenimportsandeconomicgrowth.

Althoughnumerousempiricalstudieshaveinvestigatedtheroleofexportsineconomicgrowth,theylargelyfocusedonAsianeconomies,withfewstudiesincludingLatinAmericacountries.Earlierintheireconomicdevelopmentpaths,manyLatinAmericaneconomiesmostlyfollowedprotectionisttradepoliciesemphasizingtheimportsubstitutionindustrializationstrategy.Thecurrentprevailingviewamongmostdevelopmenteconomistsisthattheimport-substitutionapproachisdetrimentaltoeconomicgrowthasitinherentlyfostersproductioninefficienciesandencouragesrent-seekingbehaviour.Inrecentyears,manyLatinAmericancountrieshaveexperiencedmajormacroeconomicandtradepolicyreformswithemphasisonmarketliberalizationandtradeopenness.Thefewexistingempiricalinvestigationsof

theeffectofopennessongrowthinthisregionhaveproducedmixedandinconclusiveresults（Riezmanetal.,1996;

Xu,1996;

Bahmani-OskooeeandNiroomand,1999;

Richards,2001）.

ThisstudyinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthforthreeLatinAmericaneconomies（Argentina,ColombiaandPeru）withinanintegratedframeworkthatexplorestheroleofbothexportsandimports.Thisstudymakescontributionstotheliteratureinseveralways.First,incontrasttomostpreviousstudiesoftheELGhypothesis,thisstudyextendsthetraditionalneoclassicalgrowthmodelbyestimatinganaugmentedproductionfunctionthatexplicitlytestsfortheeffectofbothexportsandimportsoneconomicgrowth.Realexportsandimportsareincludedastwooftheendogenousvariablesinthecointegratedvectorautoregression（VAR）model.ThismodellingframeworkalsomakesitpossibletotestforboththeELGandILGhypothesesfortheseLatinAmericaneconomies.Second,thearticlealsoadoptsrecentadvances