贸易开放度与经济增长是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长外文翻译Word格式文档下载.docx
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是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长【外文翻译】
本科毕业论文外文翻译原文
外文题目:
Tradeopennessandeconomicgrowth:
isgrowthexport-ledorimport-led?
出处:
AppliedEconomics(2008,40,161–173)
作者:
TitusO.Awokuse
原文:
isgrowth
export-ledorimport-led?
Mostpreviousinvestigationshaveonlyfocusedontheeffectofexportexpansiononeconomicgrowthwhileignoringthepotentialgrowth-enhancingcontributionofimports.Thisarticlere-examinestherelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthinArgentina,Colombia,andPeruwithemphasisonboththeroleofexportsandimports.Grangercausalitytestsandimpulseresponsefunctionswereusedtoexaminewhethergrowthintradestimulateeconomicgrowth(orviceversa).Theresultssuggestthatthesingularfocusofpaststudiesonexportsastheengineofgrowthmaybemisleading.Althoughthereissomeempiricalevidencesupportingexport-ledgrowth,theempiricalsupportforimport-ledgrowthhypothesisisrelativelystronger.Insomecases,thereisalsoevidenceforreversecausalityfromgrossdomesticproductgrowthtoexportsandimports.
I.Introduction
Thepotentialbenefitofoutward-orientedtradepolicyforeconomicgrowthhasbeenthesubjectofmanyempiricalinvestigations.Althoughseveralstudieshavedemonstratedthetheoreticaleconomicrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowth,disagreementsstillpersistsregardingthecausaldirectionandmagnitudeof
theeffects(Bhagwati,1978;
Edwards,1998).Thevastmajorityofthisliteraturefocusesonthecausaleffectofexportoneconomicgrowth.Themainquestionintheexportled-growthdebateiswhetheranexport-drivenoutwardorientingtradepolicyispreferabletoaninwardorientingtradepolicyinstimulatingeconomicgrowth.Someresearchersarguethatcausalityflowsfromexportstoeconomicgrowthanddenotesthisastheexport-ledgrowth(ELG)hypothesis.Thereversecausalflowfromeconomicgrowthtoexportsistermedgrowth-ledexports(GLE).Thethirdalternativeisthatofimport-ledgrowth(ILG)whichsuggeststhateconomicgrowthcouldbedrivenprimarilybygrowthinimports.
Despitethepotentiallyimportantroleofimportsandimportcompetition,relativelylittleattentionhasbeendevotedtothecausalrelationshipbetweenimportsandeconomicgrowth.Moststudiesontheeffectoftradeopennessongrowthhaveprimarilyfocusedontheroleofexportsandhavemostlyignoredthecontributionofimports.However,somerecentstudieshaveshownthatwithoutcontrollingforimports,anyobservedcausallinkbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthmaybespuriousandthusmisleading(Esfahani,1991;
Riezmanetal.,1996;
ThangaveluandRajaguru,2004).Importsmaybeveryimportanttoeconomicgrowthsincesignificantexportgrowthisusuallyassociatedwithrapidimportgrowth.Furthermore,theexport-growthanalysesthatexcludeimportsmaybesubjecttotheclassicomittedvariableproblem.Thefundamentalcausalrelationshipmayactuallybebetweenimportsandeconomicgrowth.
Althoughnumerousempiricalstudieshaveinvestigatedtheroleofexportsineconomicgrowth,theylargelyfocusedonAsianeconomies,withfewstudiesincludingLatinAmericacountries.Earlierintheireconomicdevelopmentpaths,manyLatinAmericaneconomiesmostlyfollowedprotectionisttradepoliciesemphasizingtheimportsubstitutionindustrializationstrategy.Thecurrentprevailingviewamongmostdevelopmenteconomistsisthattheimport-substitutionapproachisdetrimentaltoeconomicgrowthasitinherentlyfostersproductioninefficienciesandencouragesrent-seekingbehaviour.Inrecentyears,manyLatinAmericancountrieshaveexperiencedmajormacroeconomicandtradepolicyreformswithemphasisonmarketliberalizationandtradeopenness.Thefewexistingempiricalinvestigationsof
theeffectofopennessongrowthinthisregionhaveproducedmixedandinconclusiveresults(Riezmanetal.,1996;
Xu,1996;
Bahmani-OskooeeandNiroomand,1999;
Richards,2001).
ThisstudyinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthforthreeLatinAmericaneconomies(Argentina,ColombiaandPeru)withinanintegratedframeworkthatexplorestheroleofbothexportsandimports.Thisstudymakescontributionstotheliteratureinseveralways.First,incontrasttomostpreviousstudiesoftheELGhypothesis,thisstudyextendsthetraditionalneoclassicalgrowthmodelbyestimatinganaugmentedproductionfunctionthatexplicitlytestsfortheeffectofbothexportsandimportsoneconomicgrowth.Realexportsandimportsareincludedastwooftheendogenousvariablesinthecointegratedvectorautoregression(VAR)model.ThismodellingframeworkalsomakesitpossibletotestforboththeELGandILGhypothesesfortheseLatinAmericaneconomies.Second,thearticlealsoadoptsrecentadvances