Unit 6 Risks新编大学英语第二版第四册课文翻译培训资料Word文档格式.docx
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Atsometimeorother,allofushaveplayedthepartofahypochondriac,imaginingthatwehavesometerriblediseaseonthestrengthofveryminorsymptoms.Somepeoplejusthavetohearaboutanewdiseaseandtheybegincheckingthemselvestoseeiftheymaybesufferingfromit.Butfearofdiseaseisnotouronlyfear,andneitherisriskofdiseasetheonlyriskwerun.Modernlifeisfullofallmannerofthreats-toourlives,ourpeaceofmind,ourfamilies,andourfuture.Andfromthesethreatscomequestionsthatwemustposetoourselves:
IsthefoodIbuysafe?
Aretoysformychildrenlikelytohurtthem?
Shouldmyfamilyavoidsmokedmeats?
AmIlikelytoberobbedonvacations?
Ouruncertaintiesmultiplyindefinitely.
Anxietyabouttherisksoflifeisabitlikehypochondria;
inboth,thefearoranxietyfeedsonpartialinformation.Butonesharpdifferenceexistsbetweenthetwo.Thehypochondriaccanusuallyturntoaphysiciantogetadefinitiveclarificationofthesituation-eitheryouhavethesuspecteddiseaseoryoudon'
t.Itismuchmoredifficultwhenanxietyaboutotherformsofriskisconcerned,becausewithmanyrisks,thesituationisnotassimple.
Risksarealmostalwaysamatterofprobabilityratherthancertainty.Youmayask,"
ShouldIwearaseatbelt?
"
Ifyou'
regoingtohaveahead-oncollision,ofcourse.Butwhatifyougethitfromthesideandenduptrappedinsidethevehicle,unabletoescapebecauseofadamagedseatbeltmechanism?
Sodoesthismeanthatyoushouldspendtheextramoneyforanairbag?
Again,inhead-oncollisions,itmaywellsaveyourlife.Butwhatifthebagaccidentallyinflateswhileyouaredrivingdownthehighway,thuscausinganaccidentthatwouldneverhaveoccurredotherwise?
Allofthisisanotherwayofsayingthatnothingwedoiscompletelysafe.Therearerisks,oftenpotentiallyseriousones,associatedwitheveryhobbywehave,everyjobwetake,everyfoodweeat-inotherwords,witheveryaction.Butthefactthattherearerisksassociatedwitheverythingwearegoingtododoesnot,orshouldnot,reduceustotremblingneurotics.Someactionsareriskierthanothers.Thepointistoinformourselvesabouttherelevantrisksandthenactaccordingly.
Forexample,largercarsaregenerallysaferthansmallonesincollisions.Buthowmuchsafer?
Theansweristhatyouareroughlytwiceaslikelytodieinaseriouscrashina
smallcarthaninalargeone.Yetlargercarsgenerallycostmorethansmallones(andalsousemoregas,thusincreasingtheenvironmentalrisks!
),sohowdowedecidewhenthereducedrisksareworththeaddedcosts?
Theultimateriskavoidermight,forinstance,buyatankoranarmoredcar,thusminimizingtheriskofdeathorinjuryinacollision.Butistheaddedcostandinconvenienceworththedifferenceinprice,evensupposingyoucouldaffordit?
Wecannotbegintoanswersuchquestionsuntilwehaveafeelforthelevelofrisksinquestion.Sohowdowemeasurethelevelofarisk?
Somepeopleseemtothinkthattheanswerisasimplenumber.Weknow,forinstance,thatabout25,000peopleperyeardieinautomobileaccidents.Bycontrast,onlyabout300dieperyearinmineaccidentsanddisasters.Doesthatmeanthatridinginacarismuchriskierthanmining?
Notnecessarily.Thefactisthatsome200millionAmericansregularlyrideinautomobilesintheUnitedStateseveryyear;
perhaps700,000areinvolvedinmining.Therelevantfigurethatweneedtoassessariskisaratioorfraction.Thenumeratorofthefractiontellsushowmanypeoplewerekilledorharmedastheresultofaparticularactivityoveracertainperiodoftime;
thedenominatortellsushowmanypeoplewereinvolvedinthatactivityduringthattime.Allrisklevelsarethusratiosorfractions,withvaluesbetween0(norisk)and1(totallyrisky).
Byreducingallriskstoratiosorfractionsofthissort,wecanbegintocomparedifferentsortsofrisks-likeminingversusridinginacar.Thelargerthisratio,thatis,thecloseritisto1,theriskiertheactivityinquestion.Inthecasejustdiscussed,wewouldfindtherelativesafetyofcartravelandcoalminingbydividingthenumbersofliveslostineachbythenumberofpeopleparticipatingineach.Here,itisclearthattheriskinessoftravelingbycarisabout1deathper10,000passengers;
withmining,therisklevelisabout4deathsper10,000miners.Soalthoughfarmorepeoplearekilledincaraccidentsthaninmining,thelatterturnsouttobefourtimesriskierthantheformer.Thoseratiosenableustocomparetherisksofactivitiesorsituationsasdifferentasapplesandoranges.Ifyouareopposedtorisks,youwillwanttochooseyouractivitiesbyfocusingonthesmall-ratioexposures.Ifyouarereckless,thenyouarenotlikelytobeafraid