利用R语言编写量化投资策略Word格式.docx
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))getSymbols("
MHXX"
from="
2013-01-01"
to="
2015-09-30"
)
#显示K线图,如图明显发现股价呈现递增趋势,价格序列是非平稳的。
chartSeries(MHXX)
#考虑对数收益率#获取收盘价
cp=MHXX[,4]
lgcp=log(MHXX[,4])
#tdx=c(1:
456)/365+2014
#计算日收益率
ret=dailyReturn(MHXX)
chartSeries(ret,theme="
white"
TA=NULL)
#plot(tdx,cp,xlab="
year"
ylab="
closeprice"
type=T)
#计算对数收益率,如图课件,股价在15年左右有一个跳跃,15年第二季度的股价增长导
致
#之后股价有较大的下降,这些特征给后续的分析带来一些较大的异常值
lgret=log(ret+1)
chartSeries(lgret,theme="
#由ACF和PACF图可以看出,该股1股价的日收益率序列即使存在某种相关性,该自相关性也
#很小
par(mfcol=c(2,1))acf(lgret,lag=30)
pacf(lgret,lag=30)
#为了验证该收益率序列有没有序列相关性,使用Ljung-Box检验,结果对应的P值0.024,
#在1%的显著水平下,拒绝该股票日收益率没有显著前后相关性的这一原假设。
#但在5%的显著水平下,无法拒绝该股票日收益率没有显著前后相关性的这一原假设。
Box.test(lgret,lag=20,type='
Ljung'
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#################
m1<
-auto.arima(lgret,stationary=TRUE,seasonal=FALSE,ic="
aic"
#鉴于该股票对数收益率序列的自相关性并不强,所以建立的ARIMA模型可能适用性不高。
#对于对数收益率序列,单样本的t检验结果的t比为1.0625,p值为0.2884,表明该序
列不是
#显著异于零的,同时此处根据ACF图所示,在4阶有轻微的超越标准差线,
#因此取用AR(5)模型拟合,aic=-2987.43
m2<
-arima(x=lgret,order=c(4,0,0),include.mean=F)
tratio=m2$coef/sqrt(diag(m2$var.coef))
tratio
meacf=eacf(lgret,6,12)
print(meacf$eacf,digits=2)#残差检验并表示改模型可能不是充分的
tsdiag(m2,gof=20)
m3<
-auto.arima(ret,stationary=TRUE,seasonal=FALSE,ic="
m3
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#由上述可知,对于价格变化的分析,纯ARMA模型是不充分的,一方面ARMA模型不能
处理
#波动率聚集,另一方面,ARMA-GARCH模型能充分处理这些数据的复杂性,
#并能提高样本外预测
price=ts(cp)
dp=ts(diff(cp))
par(mfcol=c(2,1))
plot(price,xlab='
year'
ylab='
price'
plot(dp,xlab='
changes'
cprice=diff(price)
par(mfcol=c(2,1))acf(cprice)
pacf(cprice)
#aic=-0.37
m.garch1<
-garchFit(~1+garch(1,1),data=cprice,trace=F)
summary(m.garchl)
#aic=-0.62
m.garch2<
-garchFit(~arma(6,0)+garch(1,1),data=cprice,trace=F,ininclude.mean=
F,
cond.dist="
std"
summary(m.garch2)
#aic=-0.60
m.garch3<
-garchFit(~arma(2,0)+garch(1,1),data=cprice,trace=F,ininclude.mean=
summary(m.garch3)
#aic=-0.596
m.garch4<
-garchFit(~arma(1,0)+garch(1,1),data=cprice,trace=F,ininclude.mean=
summary(m.garch4)
#回测检验
source("
backtestGarch.R"
M2F=backtestGarch(cprice,714,2,inc.mean=F,cdist="
sstd"
backtest.R"
M2AF=backtest(m2,cprice,714,2,inc.mean=F)
#ArchTest(coredata(ret))
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#计算VaR
mgarch1<
-ugarchspec(variance.model=list(garchOrder=c(1,1)),
mean.model=list(armaOrder=c(0,0)))
mgarch1_fit<
-ugarchfit(spec=mgarch1,data=cprice)
mgarch1_fitmgarch1_roll<
-ugarchroll(mgarch1,cprice,n.start=120,refit.every=1,
refit.window="
moving"
solver="
hybrid"
calculate.VaR=TRUE,VaR.alpha=0.01,keep.coef=TRUE)
report(mgarch1_roll,type="
VaR"
VaR.alpha=0.01,conf.level=0.99)
#生成PLOT
cprice_var<
-zoo(mgarch1_roll@forecast$VaR[,1])
index(cprice_var)<
-as.yearmon(rownames(mgarch1_roll@forecast$VaR))
cprice_actual<
-zoo(mgarch1_roll@forecast$VaR[,2])
-as.yearmon(rownames(mgarch1_roll@forecast$VaR))plot(cprice_actual,type="
b"
main="
99%dayVarbacktesting"
xlab="
Date"
ylab="
Return/VaRinpercent"
lines(cprice_var,col="
red"
legend("
topright"
inset=.05,c("
MHXXreturn"
"
),col=c("
black"
),lty=c(1,1))mgarch1_fcst<
-ugarchforecast(mgarch1_fit,n.ahead=6)
mgarch1_fcst
ret.fcst<
--qnorm(0.95)*mgarch1_fcst@forecast$sigmaForret.fcstchartSeries(MHXX,name="
中国民航信息”,TA=NULL)addBBands()
#addMACD()
################################量化投资策略
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